Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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ACUS02 KWNS 020704
SWODY2
SPC AC 020703

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0103 AM CST MON MAR 02 2015

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN UTAH INTO
WESTERN COLORADO.

...SYNOPSIS...
SWLY MID-UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT FROM
KS/OK INTO THE OH VALLEY/SRN GREAT LAKES TO THE NERN STATES...AS A
RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE
BAHAMAS/CARIBBEAN...AND A LARGE POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH AMPLIFIES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO ONTARIO.
MEANWHILE...A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DAMPEN DURING DAY 2
AS IT TRACKS NEWD FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS OF WRN NEB INTO A
CONFLUENT FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES.  MODELS ARE
TRENDING A LITTLE NWD WITH THE TRACK OF THIS TROUGH AND ATTENDANT
SURFACE LOW WITH THESE FEATURES MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
BY TUESDAY EVENING.  THIS NWD TRACK IS RESULTING IN RELATIVELY
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE EWD AND SWD ADVANCEMENT OF THE TRAILING
COLD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY AND MID MS VALLEY/SRN
PLAINS...RESPECTIVELY.  THIS FRONT WILL EXTEND SWWD THROUGH CENTRAL
IL/MO INTO CENTRAL OK TO THE TX PANHANDLE BY 04/00Z.  BY 12
WEDNESDAY...THIS COLD FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM ERN NY/PA THROUGH THE
CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS...THEN WSWWD THROUGH NRN LA TO NRN OR
CENTRAL TX.

...LOWER MS/TN VALLEYS...
LOW-LEVEL WAA MAY SUPPORT ELEVATED TSTMS TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS
PARTS OF TN/KY...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE DUE TO MEAGER INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO LOW TO INCLUDE A GENERAL TSTM AREA.  ALTHOUGH
SSWLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL AID IN MOISTENING THE WARM SECTOR FROM
THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE TN VALLEY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...
POOR LAPSE RATES...DUE IN PART TO WARMING 500-MB TEMPERATURES...WILL
HINDER THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER INSTABILITY.  DEEP-LAYER AND
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE ADEQUATE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE ORGANIZED
STORMS.  HOWEVER...THE SPREAD INDICATED BY THE MODELS IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY STORMS TO BECOME SURFACE-BASED REMAINS LOW...WITH
NO SEVERE PROBABILITIES INCLUDED AT THIS TIME.

...SRN AR/WRN LA INTO NRN/CENTRAL TX...
AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL WAA ACROSS THIS REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AS A
SLY LLJ STRENGTHENS SUGGESTS PARCELS LIFTED ISENTROPICALLY IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SWD-MOVING COLD FRONT COULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR A
FEW ELEVATED TSTMS.

...ERN UT/WRN CO...
COOLING MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES AND FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING SEWD FROM ID TO ERN UT/WRN CO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON COULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW TSTMS...AS LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN.

..PETERS.. 03/02/2015



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