Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS02 KWNS 311727
SWODY2
SPC AC 311726

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1226 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES
REGION SWWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND
CNTRL TX...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWESTWARD
INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

...GREAT LAKES/MID MS VALLEY...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY ON
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES EWD INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES
REGION. AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY
AFTERNOON. ALONG THIS CORRIDOR...SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S F
WITH TEMPS WARMING TO NEAR 80 F MAY RESULT IN A POCKET OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY FROM NEAR CHICAGO SWWD INTO WRN IL. AS LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE INCREASES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY TO INITIATE. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR CHICAGO AT 21Z/WED SHOW SOME DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE
LOW-LEVELS WITH SPEED SHEAR MAINLY ABOVE 500 MB. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH
SHEAR FOR AN ISOLATED BUT BRIEF SEVERE THREAT NEAR PEAK HEATING. THE
STRONGER MULTICELLS COULD PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND
HAIL.

...SRN PLAINS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS NRN MEXICO DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES SEWD INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. A
MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE ERN
HALF OF TX. THE GFS...ECMWF AND NAM SUGGEST THAT AN MCS MAY BE
ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL AND NORTH TX WEDNESDAY MORNING.
FURTHER SOUTH IN SRN SECTIONS OF THE TX HILL COUNTRY TO THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY...THE AIRMASS SHOULD HAVE A CHANCE TO BECOME
MODERATELY UNSTABLE DUE TO LESS MORNING CONVECTION. IN
ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM DEL RIO TO SAN ANTONIO WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON SHOW STEEP LAPSE RATES AND ENOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR
MID-LEVEL STORM ROTATION AND HAIL. HOWEVER...WEAK FLOW FROM THE SFC
TO 700 MB WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR CONCERNING SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT
AND MULTICELLS WILL BE THE FAVORED MODE. A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE
WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS.

..BROYLES.. 05/31/2016

$$



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