Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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ACUS03 KWNS 160715
SWODY3
SPC AC 160714

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0214 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SRN FL PENINSULA...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE FL PENINSULA AT
DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY AND CROSS THE FL PENINSULA BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ALONG A
SFC TROUGH ORIENTED FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE SCNTRL FL
PENINSULA. SFC DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE LINE NEAR 70 F...MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL
SEVERE THREAT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THE LINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST OF FL DURING THE AFTERNOON ENDING THE THREAT FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

AT THIS POINT...THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO THE EXACT
POSITION OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE AT 12Z TUESDAY. THE ECMWF AND GFS
SOLUTIONS APPEAR TO BE REASONABLE WITH THE LINE BEING NEAR OR JUST
TO THE WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THIS POSITIONING WOULD TAKE THE LINE
OFFSHORE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE SEVERE THREAT COULD LINGER ACROSS
SOUTH FL INTO THE MIDDLE AFTERNOON IF THE SLOWER NAM SOLUTION IS
CLOSER TO BEING CORRECT.

..BROYLES.. 03/16/2014
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