536
ACUS03 KWNS 151924
SWODY3
SPC AC 151924

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TO THE NORTHEAST STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated damaging gusts are possible over parts of the Northeast
Thursday.

...Northeast and upper OH Valley...
Shortwave troughing over the eastern Great Lakes will gradually
merge with broader cyclonic flow over the Northeast and eastern
Canada Thursday. A surface low will steadily deepen as it shifts
eastward with the upper trough. A cold front trailing the low will
serve as a focus for thunderstorm development through the afternoon
from the OH valley to the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. Moderate
buoyancy and strengthening flow aloft will overlap and could support
scattered thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts ahead of the
front. A large disparity exists among forecast guidance with regards
to the position of the cold front, strength of the surface low and
any potential MCVs from prior day`s convection. While confidence in
the overall evolution is somewhat low, the broader environment still
appears favorable enough to support some severe risk.

...Mid MS Valley and southern Plains...
Scattered storms are expected along the cold front as it moves
southward across the Mid South and the Southern Plains. Stronger
vertical shear should largely lag behind the front especially with
southward extent. A few stronger storm clusters are possible along
the front where large buoyancy could support sporadic damaging
gusts. However, confidence in the frontal timing and convective
evolution is very low, precluding the addition of severe
probabilities for now.

..Lyons.. 07/15/2025

$$