Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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ACUS03 KWNS 160724
SWODY3
SPC AC 160723

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0223 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...MAINLY ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

...SYNOPSIS...
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL BE FEATURED IN EACH OF THE FOUR CORNERS OF
THE CONUS WITH EMBEDDED IMPULSES WITHIN BOTH NRN/SRN STREAMS...WHILE
A LARGE-SCALE RIDGE DOMINATES THE CNTRL STATES. CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TOWARD A COMPACT SHORTWAVE IMPULSE AMPLIFYING
ALONG THE CNTRL/ERN GULF COAST...WITH WEAK CYCLOGENESIS INVOF NRN
FL/NERN GULF ON FRI NIGHT.

...FL...
ALTHOUGH CONSISTENCY HAS INCREASED WITH GUIDANCE ON THE HANDLING OF
THE SOUTHEAST SHORTWAVE IMPULSE...CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES DURING THE
PERIOD WITH REGARD TO CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION. IT APPEARS MOST PROBABLE
THAT EXTENSIVE CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING OVER THE NERN GULF ON FRI
MORNING. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP INLAND WITH
DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...THE BULK OF STRENGTHENING
KINEMATIC FIELDS APPEARS TO BE DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
PERIOD...WITHIN A RELATIVELY CONFINED CORRIDOR OVER THE PENINSULA.
WITH POTENTIAL FOR RENEWED CONVECTION FRI NIGHT AS CYCLOGENESIS
ENSUES...MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND COOLING MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS WOULD
SUPPORT AT LEAST A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK.

...PARTS OF THE WRN CONUS...
SPORADIC TSTM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE FRI AFTERNOON/NIGHT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE NRN/SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND AT LEAST
SCANT BUOYANCY AMIDST STEEP TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES.

..GRAMS.. 04/16/2014




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