Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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509
ACUS03 KWNS 120753
SWODY3
SPC AC 120751

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0151 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT OVER A
PORTION OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...EAST TEXAS AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION.

...SYNOPSIS...

GENERAL BLOCKING PATTERN WILL PERSIST SUNDAY WITH RE-AMPLIFICATION
OF SYNOPTIC UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL STATES...RESULTING FROM A
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL CREST WRN U.S. UPPER RIDGE
AND CONTINUE SEWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. A WEAK SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP THROUGH NRN TX
IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD A COLD FRONT
SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE LOW OVER NERN TX SWWD THROUGH SWRN TX WITH A
WARM FRONT STRETCHING EWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH NRN LA AND SRN MS.

...SERN OK...ERN TX THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY AREA...

LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION WILL INCREASE AS A SWLY LLJ DEVELOPS
THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY...RESULTING IN THE NWD
TRANSPORT OF MODIFIED CP AIR /MID-UPPER 50S F DEWPOINTS/ INTO ERN TX
AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS WILL OCCUR AS PLUME OF STEEPER LAPSE
RATES EXPANDS EWD THROUGH THE REGION...CONTRIBUTING TO AT LEAST
MARGINAL INSTABILITY. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SHOULD INCREASE SUNDAY
NIGHT FROM ERN PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY...ESPECIALLY WHERE ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BE MAXIMIZED NORTH
OF THE WARM FRONT. EWD PROGRESSION OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH
EVOLVING LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW REGIME MAY EVENTUALLY CONTRIBUTE
TO DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FARTHER SOUTH INTO
A PORTION OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY WARM SECTOR. AT THIS TIME IT DOES
NOT APPEAR THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A
THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS.

..DIAL.. 02/12/2016

$$



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