Tropical Cyclone Discussion
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000
WTPZ44 KNHC 312039
TCDEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142015
300 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

Animation of recent visible satellite imagery indicates that the
low pressure area well to the south of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico has a
well-defined circulation.  Recently, deep convection has formed
near and partially over the center.  On this basis, the system is
being designated as a tropical depression.  The current intensity
estimate is 30 kt, which is slightly above the subjective Dvorak
estimates at 1800 UTC.  The tropical cyclone is not in an ideal
environment for strengthening.  A broad upper-level cyclone to the
northwest is producing southwesterly shear in the path of the
depression, and global models predict that this shear may briefly
relax in 1 to 2 days, but increase thereafter.  Although the
official intensity forecast is on the high side of the guidance,
it nonetheless shows weakening to a remnant low by the end of the
forecast period.

The initial motion estimate is 305/9 kt.  A mid-level ridge
currently to the north of the depression is forecast to shift
eastward over the next few days.  As a result, the tropical
cyclone should turn toward the north in 48 to 72 hours.  There is
some spread in the model guidance, including significant
differences in predicted forward speed.  As a compromise, the
official track forecast is roughly in the middle of the guidance,
and close to the dynamical model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  31/2100Z 12.4N 111.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  01/0600Z 13.5N 113.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  01/1800Z 14.7N 114.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  02/0600Z 16.3N 115.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  02/1800Z 18.3N 115.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  03/1800Z 21.2N 115.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  04/1800Z 23.3N 114.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  05/1800Z 24.6N 114.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Pasch



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