Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 261051
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
651 AM EDT Fri May 26 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has an axis extending from 09N21W to 00N22W. The
wave is moving W at 15 kt. The wave is located in an area of low
wind shear. TPW imagery shows the wave is situated in an area of
deep layer moisture. Despite this there is no significant
convection currently associated with this wave.

A tropical wave located in the W Atlc has an axis extending from
12N49W to 03N52W. The wave is moving W at 20 to 25 kt. The wave
is located in an area of moderate wind shear. TPW imagery shows
the wave is situated in an area of deep layer moisture. Scattered
moderate convection is present from 07N to 10N between 48W and
53W.

A tropical wave over the western Atlc has an axis extending from
14N54W to 05N58W. The wave is moving W at 20 kt. Strong wind
shear and Saharan dry air enveloping the wave are both inhibiting
convection.

A tropical wave is passing over the SW Caribbean. The wave has an
axis extending from 14N83W across Costa Rica to EPAC waters near
05N83W. The wave is moving W at 20 kt. TPW imagery shows the wave
is situated in an area of deep layer moisture. However, strong
vertical wind shear is inhibiting the development of convection in
the vicinity of this wave, except for in the vicinity of the
Monsoon Trough, where numerous moderate and scattered strong
convection is seen near Panama from 08N to 11N between 78W and
81W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough enters the tropical Atlc from Guinea Bissau in
W Africa near 12N16W and continues to 08N18W to 07N20W. The ITCZ
continues from 06N24W to 04N30W to 06N37W to 08N47W. Aside from
the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is present from 07N to 10N
between 16W and 20W and also from 04N to 07N between 31W and 35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An area of strong upper-level convergence resides over the Gulf.
This area of convergence lies to the W of an upper-level trough
extending S along the East Coast to the United States. A weakening
warm front extends from the Florida Keys into the SE Gulf to end
at 23N86W. The front is expected to dissipate by this evening.
Strong subsidence over the gulf is putting the damper on any
significant convection over the Gulf as well as the vicinity of
the front. Weak high pressure has settled over the NE Gulf. Light
to gentle winds are noted in the vicinity of the high. Moderate
to fresh SE to S return flow has already developed over the
Western Gulf ahead of a cold front pushing southward into Texas
and Oklahoma. Similar conditions are expected to continue over
the Gulf through Sunday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is exiting the SW Caribbean. See the tropical
waves section for more details on this system. Otherwise, high
pressure over the central Atlc ridges SW across the eastern
Caribbean Sea. The ridge supports fresh to strong easterly winds
across the east and central Caribbean and near gale force winds
along the coast of Colombia. Moderate to fresh ESE winds are over
the western part of the basin, except for S of 11N, where winds
are lighter in the vicinity of the monsoon trough which passes
just to the S over the Eastern Pacific. Fresh to near gale winds
will persist over the central Caribbean through Friday, then
diminish on Saturday. Pulsing fresh to strong E to SE winds are
expected over the Gulf of Honduras at night through Monday night.

...HISPANIOLA...

Partly cloudy skies and isolated showers will continue over the
island under the influence of broad high pressure over the Central
Atlc. Model guidance continues to show limited moisture across
the region through Sunday evening as upper-level convergence and
mid- level subsidence associated with a mid to upper-level ridge
extending NE from the Caribbean remains in place.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the forecast area over the SW N Atlc near
32N71W. The front extends SW to just N of Grand Bahama Island at
27N78W, then continues as a weakening stationary front to the
Florida Keys. A narrow band of showers and thunderstorms is found
just NE of the Northern Bahamas along and up to 30 nm SE of the
front to the E of 78W. Fresh to strong winds are noted W of the
front to the N of 29N. E of the front to 65W winds are fresh to
strong N of 27N. A 1025 mb high pressure centered near 30N49W
currently dominates the remainder of the Central and Western Atlc.
A weakening frontal boundary crosses the NE forecast waters from
32N15W to 25N28W to 25N36W. This front will continue to weaken and
dissipate by Saturday evening. Three tropical waves are located
over the Atlc between 21W and 58W. Please refer to the tropical
waves section for more details.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
McElroy



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