735
AXNT20 KNHC 101607
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri May 10 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1600 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from the coast of Guinea
near 10N14W and continues southwestward to 07N19W. The ITCZ
continues from 07N19W to 05N30W to 02N43W. An area of scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is observed from 02N and 07N
between 18W and 25W, with another area of scattered moderate
convection south of 06N and west of 24W to 45W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak cold front extends across the northwestern Gulf, with a
pre-frontal trough analyzed ahead of the boundary. No significant
convection is associated with either feature. Behind the front,
gentle to moderate NE to E winds exist. Otherwise, gentle to
moderate southerly winds prevail across the basin ahead of the
front. Seas are slight to moderate across the entire basin.

For the forecast, the cold front over the northwest Gulf will
shift southeast across the basin, reaching from near Tampa Bay,
Florida to south Texas early Sat, stall from the Straits of
Florida to south Texas on Sun, then gradually weaken with its
remnants lifting back north as a warm front through Sun night.
Moderate to locally fresh NE winds will follow the front into Sat
evening. Haze due to agricultural fires in southeastern Mexico
continues across most of the western Gulf. Moderate to fresh
return flow will dominate for the start of next week, with another
front or trough possibly impacting the western Gulf by Tue.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A rather weak pressure gradient is prevalent across the Caribbean
Sea. Gentle to moderate trade winds prevail over most of the
basin, except fresh to strong E to SE winds just north of
Honduras. Seas are mainly slight to moderate across the Caribbean.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are noted south of 13N between
the Windward Islands and 80W.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the basin will support
fresh to strong winds near the Gulf of Honduras, moderate to fresh
in the south-central and southeast Caribbean, with gentle to
moderate trades elsewhere through the weekend. The pressure
gradient will tighten early next week, with fresh to strong trades
in the south-central and northwestern Caribbean, and moderate to
fresh elsewhere. Seas will build next week as a result of the
increasing winds. Meanwhile, haze due to agricultural fires in
Central America continues across most of the northwestern
Caribbean.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Numerous thunderstorms containing frequent lightning are moving
eastward across the southeastern U.S. Some of this activity is
reaching the waters north of 28N and west of 78W. Further east, a
weak trough is analyzed from 30N58W to 20N60W. No significant
convection is associated with this feature. Moderate to fresh SW
winds are present north of 28N and east of 59W. Otherwise, gentle
or weaker winds prevail elsewhere west of 55W. Seas are slight to
moderate across these waters.

The remainder of the central and western Atlantic is under the
influence of a 1025 mb high pressure centered near 32N34W. A broad
mid to upper-level trough is inducing a surface trough that is
analyzed along 21N47W to 14N54W. Showers and isolated
thunderstorms are observed west of a line that extends from 31N40W
to 11N62W to another line from 30N30W to 06N54W. A recent ASCAT
pass reveals mainly gentle to moderate NE to E are present east of
55W. Moderate seas exist in these waters.

For the forecast W of 55W, the trough over the southeast waters
will dissipate tonight. Otherwise, high pressure over the basin
will weaken as a cold front moves off the southeast United States,
reaching from 31N74W to near Fort Pierce, Florida early Sat, then
from just southeast of Bermuda to the central Bahamas early Sun.
Fresh to strong winds will be on either side of the front through
Sat. Associated building seas will accompany these winds, up to 8
ft. The front will weaken and slow, reaching from 31N59W to the
central Bahamas early Mon, then from 29N55W to 23N70W early Tue as
high pressure builds in the wake of the front.

$$
Nepaul