Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 182343

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
630 PM EST Wed Jan 18 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.


A developing area of low pressure is forecast to strengthen
offshore of the mid-Atlantic coast tonight. Its associated cold
front is expected in 24 hours to to extend into the west North
Atlantic region generating near gale to gale force west winds
generally north of 29N and east of front to 60W. See latest NWS
High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
for more details.


The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 06N10W to
02N20W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone continues from 02N20W
to 01N36W to the coast of South America near 02S44W. Isolated
moderate convection is from 00N-06N between 00W-17W...and S of
03N between 38W-50W.



A cold front is over the W Gulf of Mexico extending from a 1016
mb low centered over southern Texas to 28N96W to 24N98W.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are observed
along the front affecting the Gulf waters north of 25N and west
of 93W. Scattered moderate convection is inland over E Texas and
Louisiana producing localized flooding. Mostly fair weather
prevails over the remainder of the basin. Scatterometer data
depicts gentle to moderate southeasterly winds across the basin
except west of the front, where moderate northerly winds prevail.
Expect in 24 hours for the cold front to extend from Lake
Charles Louisiana to Brownsville Texas with convection.


Mostly fair weather prevails across the basin. Only low-topped
isolated showers are moving across the whole area as low-level
moisture is transported by the moderate to fresh trades. A tight
pressure gradient is supporting an area of fresh to strong
trades prevail across the central Caribbean mainly between 70W-
80W. Expect in next 24 hours for a surface trough to move over
the Windward Islands with scattered showers.


Fresh northeast winds prevail across the island and adjacent
coastal waters. Winds will diminish slightly through the next 24
hours as the pressure gradient weakens. Isolated showers are
possible today as long as the E-NE flow persists.


A cold front is presently over the Carolinas moving southeast
reaching the western Atlantic waters. Gale-force winds are
expected to develop over the western Atlantic in advance of this
front. Please see the section above for details. To the east, a
1022 mb surface high is centered near 30N41W. A frontal system
extends south of this high, analyzed as a cold front from 31N31W
to 26N44W then as a stationary front from that point to 22N56W.
A surface trough extends from 31N29W to 24N37W. Isolated showers
are observed along the fronts and trough. Expect over the next
24 hours for the cold fronts to move east over the Atlantic
with convection.

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