Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 302347
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 17N18W TO 12N21W TO 6N22W MOVING W AT 10 KT. THE
GOES-R AIRMASS PRODUCT SHOWS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR
MAINLY N OF 15N WHERE SOME DUST IS ALSO OBSERVED. MIDDLE-LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE IN THE CENTRAL WAVE ENVIRONMENT WHILE HIGH CLOUDS ARE
SW OF THE AXIS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOSTLY W OF THE
WAVE AXIS FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 20W-25W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
19N46W TO 7N49W MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE SSMI TPW AND WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 50W-55W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60
NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S MEXICO WITH
AXIS EXTENDING FROM 22N92W TO 12N92W...MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. THE
WAVE IS BENEATH A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO
8N20W TO 5N37W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 5N37W TO 6N48W TO THE
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 5N52W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION
MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 30W-39W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
SEE ABOVE. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA
AT 29N81W TO A 1009 MB LOW W OF TAMPA FLORIDA NEAR 28N84W TO THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF AT 27N88W TO THE NW GULF NEAR 29N93W TO
CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS AT 28N97W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
90 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. ELSEWHERE ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER W CUBA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH IS OVER THE W GULF NEAR 25N93W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE.
EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE LOW TO DISSIPATE AND THE TAIL
END OF A WEAK COLD FRONT TO BE OVER S FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF
WITH CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF 17N. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE INLAND OVER MOST OF
CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO GUATEMALA. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS
OVER E CUBA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND N COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED S OF HISPANIOLA
NEAR 15N70W WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING W TO HONDURAS. EXPECT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA AND THE W CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS SHOWERS WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1006 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC
NEAR 31N77W. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS W TO CENTRAL
FLORIDA NEAR COCOA BEACH. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF
THE FRONT. SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE ATLANTIC FROM 20N-30N E
OF 50W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N
OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS PRODUCING
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE N BAHAMAS...AND
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION E OF THE TROUGH
FROM 22N-32N BETWEEN 68W-76W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FURTHER E
NEAR 29N59W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 22N-33N
BETWEEN 53W-59W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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