Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 311731
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
ON 01 NOV 1800 UTC FROM 31N74W TO 23N80.5W. A GALE IS FORECAST
TO BE N OF 29N BETWEEN 75W AND 78W WITH W WINDS 30 TO 35 KT AND
SEAS OF 12 TO 16 FT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
NOV 02 AT 1200 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A NEW TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN INTRODUCED TO THIS MAP...WHICH IS
MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
17N54W TO 10N56W. THIS FEATURE WAS PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED AS A
TROUGH...BUT AFTER FURTHER ANALYSIS USING LONG-RANGE SATELLITE
IMAGERY...TPW IMAGERY...AND OBSERVATIONS...ITS WAVE
CHARACTERISTICS WERE NOTED. ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS IN THE
ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE...ENHANCING MODERATE CONVECTION FROM
11N-17N BETWEEN 51W-57W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING S OF JAMAICA WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
17N77W TO 11N78W...MOVING W AT 15 KT. A MOIST ENVIRONMENT
CONTINUES ACROSS THIS WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NOTED FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 76W-78W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 10N14W AND CONTINUES TO 09N18W. THE ITCZ BEGINS
NEAR 09N18W AND CONTINUES TO 05N28W TO 06N37W TO 05N52W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-11N BETWEEN 18W-24W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN US CONTINUES SUPPORTING A
STRONG COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF FROM 24N92W TO
27N82W. NO CONVECTION IS RELATED TO THIS BOUNDARY. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EXTENDING FROM 22N93W TO
18N93W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THIS AXIS OVER THE
MEXICO COAST. TO THE NW...A WEAKER COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO...ENHANCING CONVECTION N OF
26N...W OF 96W. FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE BASIN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO
CONTINUE MOVING SE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE PAIRED WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 18N...W OF
83W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. REFER TO
THE SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE INFORMATION. UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
PAIRED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH AT THE SURFACE IS ENHANCING
CONVECTION S OF 12N. TO THE E...A 1009 MB LOW IS LOCATED AT
ABOUT 250 NM NE OF FAJARDO...PUERTO RICO...ENHANCING CONVECTION
ACROSS THE NE PORTION OF THE ISLAND AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVE TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE W...AND FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO ADVECT
OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES DUE TO AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE.

HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER IS PREVAILING ACROSS THE ISLAND. EXPECT SIMILAR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT
EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FROM 29N81W TO A 1007 MB LOW NEAR
32N76W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 70 NM OF
THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS AHEAD OF THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM
30N76W TO 26N80W. A 1007 MB LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 27N74W WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTEND FROM IT TO 31N72W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 29N-33N BETWEEN 67W-71W. TO THE E...A 1009 MB
LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 23N65W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
IT TO 26N64W. THESE FEATURES ARE ENHANCING CONVECTION FROM 18N-
29N BETWEEN 56W-66W AFFECTING PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WATERS. A LARGE
1030 MB HIGH IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC CENTERED NEAR 37N37W
WITH FAIR WEATHER PREVAILING. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS
FROM 26N33W TO 33N18W AND CONNECTS TO A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS
INTO THE N ATLANTIC.


FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA



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