Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 222148
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE JUL 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2130 UTC.

....SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1008 MB LOW PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 10N121W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN
120 NM IN THE S SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW. SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT
OF THE LOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH A MEDIUM
CHANCE OF THE SYSTEM DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 7N95W TO OVER MEXICO 21N93W MOVING W
15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 6N-12N
BETWEEN 92W-96W.

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 10N-18N ALONG 123W MOVING W 10 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 120W-123W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 08N78W TO 09N92W. ITCZ FROM 09N92W TO 1008
MB LOW PRES 10N121W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN
107W AND 140W.

...DISCUSSION...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA...WITH AXIS FROM 32N132W TO 18N135W. A 90-95 KT
JETSTREAM E OF THE LOW EXTENDS FROM 22N130W THROUGH 32N124W.
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW IS ENHANCING CONVECTION WITH THE
SURFACE LOW NEAR 10N121W AND TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 93W MENTIONED
ABOVE. A LARGE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO
NEAR 33N106W WITH ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDING SW ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA
TO 20N118W.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...GALE FORCE TRADE WINDS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL
BEGIN TO PULSE THROUGH INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TONIGHT/EARLY WED
WITH WINDS REACHING 30 KT DURING THE TIME OF MAXIMUM DRAINAGE ON WED.
SEAS WILL BUILD 8 TO 10 FT BY WED. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE AGAIN
WED NIGHT AND THU...THOUGH NOT AS STRONG AS TONIGHT`S EVENT.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE PRES GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN
ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO...AND NLY WINDS WILL PULSE TO 20-25 KT
THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WED THEN DECREASE ON THU.

$$
COBB


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