Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030222
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE MAY 03 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0200 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N83W TO 06N91W TO 08N103W TO
08N110W. THE ITCZ IS FROM 08N110W TO 06N121W TO 07N128W TO
04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 120 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 83W AND 103W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS WITHIN 140 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N137W TO 28N140W. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING SE WHILE WEAKENING. FRESH NORTHERLY
WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING TO BETWEEN 8 AND 11 FT ARE EXPECTED IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SEAS WILL BE
HIGHEST N OF 25N AND W OF 127W THROUGH THIS PERIOD...PEAKING
BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.

AN AREA OF MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WITH SEAS TO 9 FT WILL
CONTINUE PULSING THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS FROM 07N AND 10N AND
W OF 139W.

LOOKING AHEAD...A LATE SEASON COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL TRIGGER A GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT
BEGINNING ON THURSDAY MORNING. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS N WINDS
IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE AND SEAS BUILDING TO BETWEEN 8 AND 10
FT OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. EXPECT FOR THE STRONGEST WINDS
AT AROUND 1200 UTC ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE MAXIMUM.

$$

ERA


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