Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 272200
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED MAY 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 09.5N107.5W IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY...AND MAY BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW CONTINUE
TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE AN
AREA OF NUMEROUS MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION MAINLY
ON THE WEST SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM FROM 09N TO 14N BETWEEN 106W AND
112W. THE EDGE OF AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS CAPTURED THE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

...TROPICAL WAVES/LOWS...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 04-12N ALONG 96W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 95W
AND 96W...AND NEAR THE NORTHERN END OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 12N TO
14N BETWEEN 95W AND 98W.

A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS ANALYZED NEAR 09N120W WITH
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED FAR TO THE NW OF THE LOW
CENTER FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 122W AND 125W. NE TRADES ARE
ENHANCED TO 15-20 KT WITHIN 150 NM OVER THE NW QUADRANT OF THE
LOW WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 7-8 FT IN MIXED SWELL. THE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT W AND WEAKEN THROUGH FRI.

A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED NEAR 12N132W WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 120 NM NE QUADRANT OF
LOW CENTER. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND A RIDGE TO THE
N SUPPORTS AN AREA OF NE 20-25 KT TRADES WITHIN ABOUT 120 NM N
QUADRANT OF THE LOW CENTER WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 8-9 FT. THE LOW
IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT W-SW THROUGH FRI AND WEAKEN.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

CURRENTLY THERE IS NOT A WELL DEFINED MONSOON TROUGH OR ITCZ IN
THE EASTERN PAC DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THREE LOW PRES SYSTEMS
AND A TROPICAL WAVE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY OF EACH OTHER. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED ACROSS THE DEEP
TROPICS FROM 03N TO 07N BETWEEN 108W AND 124W.

...DISCUSSION...

BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY 1021 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR
30N128W DOMINATES MOST OF THE NORTHERN WATERS N OF 18N W OF
110W. A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS OVER THE NW WATERS AND
EXTENDS FROM 30N132W TO 25N140W. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN FURTHER
AND TRANSITION INTO A QUASI-STATIONARY TROUGH THROUGH THU
NIGHT...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR 27N132W.

MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES CONTINUED MODERATE TO FRESH E-NE WINDS
PULSING THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH FRI NIGHT WITH SEAS
OF 6-7 FT.

$$
GR



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