Tropical Weather Discussion
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548
AXPZ20 KNHC 210251
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2346 UTC Sun Aug 20 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0245 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Hurricane Kenneth is near 16.8N 129.1W at 21/0300 UTC, moving
W-NW, or 285 degrees at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure
is 964 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 100 kt with gusts to 120
kt. Numerous strong convection is noted within 90 nm northeast
and 60 nm southwest semicircles of center. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere from 14N to 19N
between 126W and 130W. Kenneth is forecast to remain a hurricane
the next couple of days before weakening over cooler waters.
Refer to National Hurricane Center Forecast Advisory under
WMO/AWIPS headers WTPZ23 KNHC/MIATCMEP3, and the High Seas
Forecast under WMO/AWIPS headers FZPN03 KNHC/MIAHSFEP2 for
additional information.

..TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 89W north of 10N, moving
west at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is noted within 30 nm east of the tropical wave axis.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 11N90W to 09N98W to
10N105W to 09N113W to 07N118W to 08N120W. It resumes from
13N131W to 12N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted within 120 nm north of the monsoon trough
between 95W and 102W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted within 90 nm south of the monsoon trough
between 111W and 114W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection was noted within 60 nm north of the monsoon trough
between 116W and 120W. Scattered moderate is noted within 60 nm
south of the monsoon trough west of 132W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A NW to SE orientated low level trough will meander across the
Baja California Peninsula and Gulf of California this week with a
weak surface low developing intermittently along the trough over
the far northern Gulf of California waters. A NW to SE
orientated ridge extends across waters just beyond 250 nm. A
moderate NW breeze is forecast across the waters W of the Baja
California Peninsula, except becoming a fresh NW breeze each
evening within about 90 nm of the Pacific Coast of Baja
California, with 3 to 6 ft seas forecast throughout.

Gulf of California...mainly light to gentle southerly flow will
persist across the Gulf of California this week, except a
moderate southerly breeze will surround the low pressure center
that will develop intermittently over the Gulf waters N of 29.5N.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Strong northerly winds are funneling
through the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Winds are forecast to remain
near 25 kt through Monday morning, with seas to 8 ft before
decreasing. Afterwards, fresh N drainage winds are forecast on
Mon night with seas building briefly to 8 ft by Tue morning
before subsiding.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gulf of Papagayo: gentle moderate nocturnal drainage forecast
through this week.

Otherwise, light and variable flow expected N of the monsoon
trough through early Mon, while moderate to locally fresh
southerly winds are expected S of the monsoon trough axis with 3
to 6 ft seas through the middle of the week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1028 mb centered near 39N138W extends a ridge
southeast to near 23N115W. Outside the influence of Kenneth,
moderate to locally fresh anticyclonic flow is forecast N of the
monsoon trough and W of 120W. N swell with seas in the 7 to 9 ft
range will propagate S of 30N between 126W and 133W on Mon, then
merge with southerly swell generated by Kenneth over the waters N
of 26N and W of 130W on Tuesday.

$$
AL



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