Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 272107
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT DEC 27 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N86W TO 07N92W WHERE LOW LEVEL
WINDS SUGGEST A TRANSITION TO ITCZ WHICH EXTENDS TO 08N108W TO
05N115W TO 06N114W TO 07.5N123W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 210 NM N OF THE ITCZ
BETWEEN 94W AND 107W.

...DISCUSSION...

WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 43N133W
EXTENDS A RIDGE SW ACROSS THE FAR NW WATERS. STRONG LOW PRESSURE
IS CENTERED NW OF THE AREA NEAR 36N155W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS OVER THE NW WATERS WITH
SEAS REACHING 10 FT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND
LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING FRESH
TRADES OVER THE WESTERN WATERS N OF THE ITCZ. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
W OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THIS WILL HELP TO DEVELOP A LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVING
INTO THE NW WATERS BY SUN. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR GALE
FORCE E OF THE LOW BY SUN AFTERNOON WITH SEAS BUILDING TO NEAR
13 FT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WINDS WILL PULSE TO FRESH TO STRONG DURING
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...HIGH PRES OVER THE GREAT BASIN REGION IS
MAINTAINING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS. THE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN REGION WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. THIS WILL DIMINISH WINDS OVER THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA...TO 20 KT OR LESS...BY SUN AFTERNOON.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO THIS WEEKEND. THE FRONT WILL REACH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
SUN NIGHT. COOL DENSE AIR WILL START TO FUNNEL THROUGH THE
CHIVELA PASS LATE SUN NIGHT. THIS WILL HELP FOR WINDS OVER THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TO INCREASE TO 25 KT BY 06 UTC MON.

$$
AL


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