Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
807
AXPZ20 KNHC 060955
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI FEB 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...STRONG GALE FORCE NORTHERLY
WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF TONIGHT...PEAKING AROUND 45
KT...AND ARE FORECAST TO PEAK AT STORM FORCE RANGE OF 50 TO 55
KT BY LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING DUE TO A STRENGTHENING
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. CONDITIONS SHOULD
DIMINISH BELOW STORM FORCE BY SUN NIGHT AND TO MINIMAL GALE
FORCE ON MON. GLOBAL MODELS THEN SUGGESTS STORM CONDITIONS WILL
POSSIBLY MATERIALIZE AGAIN MON NIGHT. THIS ONGOING GALE EVENT
WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE N TO NE SWELL OF 8 FT AND GREATER
EXTENDING BEYOND 800 NM TO THE S AND 800-900 NM TO THE SW OF
TEHUANTEPEC THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...STRONG E-NE WINDS CONTINUE TO
SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND SPILL THROUGH GAPS AND BAYS
NEAR THE PACIFIC COASTS FOR THIS OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THIS IS
RESULTING IN A LARGE PLUME OF STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE E-NE
WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND ADJACENT
COASTAL AREAS EXTENDING SW TO NEAR 06N95W...WHERE SEAS HAVE
BUILT TO 8-10 FT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AMERICA REGION ON SAT...WHICH WILL EXPAND THE AREAL
COVERAGE OF 25-30 KT WINDS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION ON SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING...AND ALSO EXPAND N TO THE GULF OF
FONSECA. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY SAT AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BEFORE ANOTHER REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FURTHER
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS TO GALE FORCE ACROSS
THE PAPAGAYO REGION LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN MORNING. THIS
PROLONGED GAP WIND EVENT IS IMPACTING THE ENTIRE REGION FROM
PANAMA TO SOUTHERN MEXICO...WITH NORTHEAST WINDS EXTENDING
DOWNWIND OF PAPAGAYO EXPECTED TO MERGE TONIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH NORTHERLY WINDS EXTENDING DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC. A VERY LARGE AREA OF SEAS 8 FT AND GREATER WILL
DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND...AND ENCOMPASS THE AREA FROM 01N TO 14N
BETWEEN 90W AND 110W BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH
SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 04N88W TO 03N99W TO 05N111W TO 05N125W TO
03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 02N TO 08N BETWEEN 106W AND 113W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 06N W OF 121W.

...DISCUSSION...
N OF 15N E OF 120W...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1032 MB HIGH
NEAR 33N129W SE TO 20N110W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS CURRENTLY
SUPPORTING N-NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT ACROSS THE OPEN PACIFIC WATERS
BETWEEN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND 120W...AND 20 TO 30 KT NORTHERLY
WINDS DOWN A LARGE PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. SEAS
REMAIN EXTREMELY ROUGH THROUGHOUT THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WITH
MAXIMUM VALUES OF 9 TO 10 FT IN THE LOCALIZED AREAS OF 25 TO 30
KT. THE HIGH WILL MOVE LITTLE DURING THE WEEKEND...AND THUS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCING THESE STRONG WINDS IS NOT EXPECTED TO
CHANGE MUCH. THE CURRENT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH SLIGHTLY TO 20-25
KT MIDDAY SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS COULD
STILL BE SEEN TONIGHT IN THE LEE OF THE TIBURON BASIN. NW SWELL
CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE OPEN PACIFIC WATERS W OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA PRODUCING SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT E OF 120W. THIS SWELL
WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE FROM THE N ON SAT WITH 5-6 FT SEAS
EXPECTED BY SUN NIGHT.

PULSES OF FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SPREAD S FROM THE
GULF OF PANAMA TO ALONG 04N EACH NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH SEAS BUILDING TO ABOUT 10 FT NEAR 06N81W.

ELSEWHERE W OF 110W...STRONG NE TRADES CONTINUE TONIGHT S OF THE
SURFACE RIDGE...GENERALLY FROM 05N TO 23N BETWEEN W OF 122W WITH
SEAS RANGING FROM 9 TO 13 FT. THIS AREA OF STRONG TRADES WILL
GRADUALLY SHRINK FROM 08N TO 14N BETWEEN 116W AND 126W BY EARLY
MON...WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO A 9 TO 11 FT RANGE. FINALLY...BY
SUN...NW SWELL ORIGINATING FROM A COLD FRONT TO THE NW OF THE
AREA WILL INTRODUCE SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT N OF 28N W OF
138W AND UPON CLOSER APPROACH EARLY MON SEAS WILL BUILD DUE TO
THE NW SWELL INTO A RANGE OF 8 TO 13 FT. THIS FRONT WILL BE
PRECEDED BY STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION AREA N OF 25N W OF 135W BY MONDAY.

$$
HUFFMAN



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.