Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 191806
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
106 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Gusty wind in the wake of a cold front can be expected today
along with scattered rain and snow showers. The majority of the
work week will be dry outside of a chance of precipitation
midweek with seasonal temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Second shortwave dropping through the upper trough has allowed
for coverage of snow showers to expand across the north. Will
keep PoPs as is, with the highest values north of I-80 and in
the mountains as saturation in the boundary layer taps into the
best snow growth region through this evening. The window for
accumulation potential is rather small, but still think 2-3
inches of snow is reasonable - just under advisory levels for
the remainder of the period. Temperatures are likely to be at
their highest as of the last hour or so, with strengthening
cold advection and cloud cover keeping us steady for the rest of
the daylight hours.

Snow showers will linger tonight but building mid level and
surface high will shunt moisture below efficient snow growth,
with minimal accumulation expected after midnight. Cloud cover
will start to diminish, but wind will remain elevated enough to
keep radiative cooling at a minimum.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Monday and Tuesday look dry with temperatures rebounding to
slightly above seasonal averages as high pressure builds back
in over the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A weak wave passing north of the forecast area midweek will
return slight chances of precipitation for locations north of
I80 on Wednesday. Dry conditions will resume Thurs/Fri before
the next system impacts the region next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Scattered to numerous northwest/upslope flow snow showers will
continue into the evening hours. Flight conditions will vary
from VFR to MVFR at most terminals. Brief IFR will be possible
at several as well, although FKL/DUJ have the best chance of
seeing such restrictions. Winds will continue to gust as high as
30 knots out of the WNW as well. Both the snow shower coverage
and the wind gusts will diminish overnight, with MVFR/low VFR
ceilings lingering. Advancing high pressure will lead to rising
ceilings and decreased cloud coverage after sunrise, with winds
backing to the southwest with time.

.Outlook...
Restriction potential returns with a Tue cold front and
subsequent upper troughing through mid week.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$



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