Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 261347
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
947 AM EDT Fri May 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers will end this morning as low pressure exits. Rain
chances return tonight, continuing at times through the holiday
weekend with another area of low pressure.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A narrow band of showers continues to edge slowly southward
across the central CWA along a subtle windshift boundary. The
western end is already eroding, and expect this trend to
continue as a weak ridging pattern builds in. Other scattered
showers outside of this band should mostly dissipate by early
afternoon as well. Clouds will linger through much of the day
however as low level moisture will be slow in scouring out. Kept
previous forecast of temperatures a few degrees below seasonal
levels.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
After a dry evening, shower chances are expected to increase
tonight and Saturday as a shortwave advances out of the
Midwest and crosses the region. An associated surface boundary
is progged to set up across the Lwr OH valley through Sat night.
The most favorable shear/instability is progged S of the
boundary, keeping the best chance for strong thunderstorms S of
the forecast area, though minimal instability further N could
result in a few thunderstorms.

The surface boundary is progged to lift N across the area Sunday
in response to another crossing shortwave, and low pressure
tracking from the MS Valley to the Lwr Great Lakes. Maintained
likely POPs for showers/storms with sufficient upper support
and moisture expected. The low`s associated cold front is
progged for a late Sun/Sun night passage as the low tracks to
Ontario, continuing the shower/storm chances. After any morning
showers exit Mon, little support is depicted in the models for
precip the remainder of the day. Temperatures are expected to
average a few degrees above seasonal levels through the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A broad upper trough is expected to persist across the Great
Lakes and NE CONUS region through much of the week. Shortwaves
rotating through the main trough should result in periodic low
chances for showers, as temperatures return to within a few
degrees of average.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
While rain showers will begin to scatter out quite a bit from
W-E early this morning, low clouds extend back toward the
OH/IN border in a fairly coherent fashion generally AOA FL010.
Expect that this should allow for IFR conditions to continue
through sunrise as CIGS will likely fall off 100-200 ft or so
with continued stabilization. As daytime ensues, low level
saturation will be slow to erode, thus the trend upward from IFR
will be slow at all sites expect probably ZZV. Most sites should
go VFR Friday night. Fries

.Outlook...
Showers continue through much of the period with episodic
restrictions.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$



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