Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 230051
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
851 PM EDT Sat Jul 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and humid conditions will continue through the weekend with
showers and storms expected through Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Most of the shower and thunderstorm activity has shifted south
and east of the area, along with much of the severe and flooding
threat. A weak wave moving along a boundary over northern
Pennsylvania may fire a few more scattered showers and storms
this evening, especially north of Pittsburgh. Coverage should
decrease after midnight as instability wanes and the wave
departs, leaving a relatively quiet overnight period. Given the
abundant moisture and lingering outflow boundaries, cannot rule
out an isolated shower or storm anywhere overnight. Otherwise,
patchy fog and low ceilings should be abundant. Have PoPs
increasing from the south towards sunrise as the next shortwave
approaches. Only minor tweaks to temperatures, which will remain
above normal overnight in the muggy air mass.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The risk for showers and storms will continue on Sunday as a
shortwave trough, diving across the Great lakes helps to push a
boundary southward. Again, there is a chance for severe storms,
with 1000j/kg CAPE and 40kts shear. It appears that there will
be enough of a break in the activity Sat night/early Sunday to
support better daytime heating, which may help support more
organized convection. Again, the primary threat will be damaging
wind.

Activity wanes Sunday night with the loss of daytime heating, but
again expect a muggy night with temps well into the 60s and lower
70s.

Mid level trough sweeps through Monday afternoon so this will be the
last round of showers/storms before a welcome break occurs.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Upper level ridge will shift eastward over the region on
Tuesday, with rising heights leading to a gradual warming
through Thursday. Deepening upper low over Hudson Bay will swing
a boundary over the Great Lakes late week, returning better
chances for showers/storms in northwest flow to end the week.

Temperatures will generally be within 5 degrees of seasonal
averages through the period, with lesser humidity Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Most of the shower and thunderstorm activity has moved off to
the east. Although a few scattered showers and storms remain
possible this evening, the majority should see mostly VFR
conditions through midnight. Given the recent rain and lingering
low level moisture, low ceilings and fog are once again expected
overnight. IFR will be fairly widespread, with LIFR possible at
FKL and DUJ, and perhaps other terminals. Improvement back to
VFR is expected by late morning, but another round of scattered
showers and storms may provide brief restrictions during the
afternoon.

.OUTLOOK...
Restrictions will continue through Monday, with VFR prevailing
thereafter.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$



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