Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 241045 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 545 AM EST Fri Nov 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Dry weather is expected today. Shower chances return with the approach and passage of a Saturday cold front. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Surface high pressure should maintain mainly clear skies and dry weather today as it slides E across the area. Temperatures should return to near or just above seasonal levels with warm advection. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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A shortwave in broad upper troughing, and it`s associated cold front, are progged to track from the Midwest to the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley region by Saturday. Shower chances should return by Saturday morning as the front crosses, though limited POPs to the chance range with limited moisture and upper support. Warming temperatures are expected overnight with warm advection and increasing surface winds, keeping all precip rain. The broad trough is progged to deepen as it tracks E, with the trough axis crossing the area Saturday evening. Rain and eventual snow shower chances should continue, though cold advection isn`t strong for this time of year. Lake/terrain enhancement is limited with marginal 850-lake surface temperature differences and a lack of significant moisture in the snow growth region. Capping inversions are also progged to quickly lower Saturday night. Any accumulation is expected to be less than an inch in the favored areas. A clearing trend is expected Sunday under building high pressure. A weak surface trough should result in some cloud increase Sunday night mainly N of PIT, though precip is not expected. After near to above average temperatures tonight and Saturday, a return to temperatures below seasonal levels is expected Sunday.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Generally dry weather is expected through early in the week with a de-amplified flow aloft. A weak trough is progged for a Tue night/Wed passage, with mainly just an increase in clouds. Another trough could result in better precip chances by late week, though maintained a guidance blend for slight chance for now due to model uncertainty. Temperatures are expected to average near to several degrees above seasonal levels. && .AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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High pressure should maintain VFR conditions through tonight as it slides E. A low level jet ahead of an approaching cold front should result in a LLWS potential tonight, though this should end Sat morning as the front crosses and the jet weakens/exits. MVFR ceilings are expected after FROPA. .Outlook... Restriction potential should continue through early Sun with cold NW flow and upper troughing.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.