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085 FXUS61 KPBZ 230051 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 851 PM EDT Sat Jul 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Warm and humid conditions will continue through the weekend with showers and storms expected through Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... Most of the shower and thunderstorm activity has shifted south and east of the area, along with much of the severe and flooding threat. A weak wave moving along a boundary over northern Pennsylvania may fire a few more scattered showers and storms this evening, especially north of Pittsburgh. Coverage should decrease after midnight as instability wanes and the wave departs, leaving a relatively quiet overnight period. Given the abundant moisture and lingering outflow boundaries, cannot rule out an isolated shower or storm anywhere overnight. Otherwise, patchy fog and low ceilings should be abundant. Have PoPs increasing from the south towards sunrise as the next shortwave approaches. Only minor tweaks to temperatures, which will remain above normal overnight in the muggy air mass. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... The risk for showers and storms will continue on Sunday as a shortwave trough, diving across the Great lakes helps to push a boundary southward. Again, there is a chance for severe storms, with 1000j/kg CAPE and 40kts shear. It appears that there will be enough of a break in the activity Sat night/early Sunday to support better daytime heating, which may help support more organized convection. Again, the primary threat will be damaging wind. Activity wanes Sunday night with the loss of daytime heating, but again expect a muggy night with temps well into the 60s and lower 70s. Mid level trough sweeps through Monday afternoon so this will be the last round of showers/storms before a welcome break occurs. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Upper level ridge will shift eastward over the region on Tuesday, with rising heights leading to a gradual warming through Thursday. Deepening upper low over Hudson Bay will swing a boundary over the Great Lakes late week, returning better chances for showers/storms in northwest flow to end the week. Temperatures will generally be within 5 degrees of seasonal averages through the period, with lesser humidity Tuesday. && .AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Most of the shower and thunderstorm activity has moved off to the east. Although a few scattered showers and storms remain possible this evening, the majority should see mostly VFR conditions through midnight. Given the recent rain and lingering low level moisture, low ceilings and fog are once again expected overnight. IFR will be fairly widespread, with LIFR possible at FKL and DUJ, and perhaps other terminals. Improvement back to VFR is expected by late morning, but another round of scattered showers and storms may provide brief restrictions during the afternoon. .OUTLOOK... Restrictions will continue through Monday, with VFR prevailing thereafter. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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