Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pendleton, OR

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000
FXUS66 KPDT 272124
AFDPDT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
224 PM PDT Thu Jul 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday...A weak disturbance is
currently moving through the Pacific Northwest. This disturbance is
tapping lingering moisture and instability to cause the development
of cumulus clouds from central Oregon east to Grant county and
northeast to Union and Wallowa counties. Also a couple of
thunderstorms have developed at the eastern end of this cumulus
field. Expect these clouds and isolated showers/storms to persist
into early evening, though there should be a gradual decrease from
west to east as drier air moves into the region. The flow over the
region will remain southwest to west-southwest Friday through
Sunday. A weak disturbance currently over the eastern Pacific is
still expected to move across the region Friday. Thus will continue
to indicate some low end chances of showers and thunderstorms over
northeast Oregon in the afternoon and evening. Did reduce precip
chances some over the Blue mountains as moisture and instability
look to be more limited than to the east over Wallowa county. The
air mass Saturday is expected to be drier than on Friday, and do not
expect much in the way of showers/storms. The air mass will dry
further and stabilize on Sunday for a completely dry day. High and
low temps will run 5 to 10 degrees above seasonal through this
period. 90

.LONG TERM...Sunday night through Thursday...Models in good
agreement in building an upper level ridge over the Great Basin.
However, there are differences in strength and positioning of the
ridge. GFS nudges the ridge eastward on Monday producing
afternoon/evening convection over eastern Oregon Monday and Tuesday.
ECMWF keeps the high centered over northern Nevada and southeast
Oregon resulting in dry conditions.  In addition, most of the GFS
Ensemble members show a ridge similar to the ECMWF`s solution
through the period. As a result, I will lean towards the ECMWF`s
solution which keeps the weather dry and hot through the period.
Daytime highs will generally be 10-15 degrees above normal.  In
fact, the lower Columbia Basin could see four days of 100+
temperatures.  Earle

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFs...VFR conditions will continue for the
next 24 hours. Clear skies are expected at all TAF sites. Winds will
be 10-15 kts, 15-20 kts KDLS, with higher gusts in the evening.
Winds will decrease overnight, but increase to 8-13 kts Friday
afternoon. Earle

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  62  92  60  95 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  68  94  66  96 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  62  95  59  97 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  58  94  58  96 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  63  95  59  97 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  59  92  59  95 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  48  91  49  94 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  54  91  53  94 /  10  20  20   0
GCD  55  93  56  95 /   0  10  10   0
DLS  61  93  62  95 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$

80/81/81



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