Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pendleton, OR

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000
FXUS66 KPDT 311134 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
434 AM PDT FRI OCT 31 2014

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH IS DIGGING OFF
THE COAST CAUSING A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING VERY
SLOWLY INTO THE CASCADES AT THIS TIME. RAIN HAS BEEN FALLING OVER
THE EAST SLOPES AND INTO THE WESTERN YAKIMA AND KITTITAS VALLEYS.
ELSEWHERE THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS BUT IT IS DRY FOR THE MOST PART.
AN UPPER LEVEL JET IS PARALLEL TO THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS WHY IT IS
MOVING SO SLOWLY. IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST TO THE BLUE MOUNTAINS
BY 00Z THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN IT WILL GET HUNG UP OVER THE BLUES AS
A SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER IDAHO AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN AND HIGHER MOUNTAIN SNOW IN THE
BLUES...WALLOWA AND ELKHORN MOUNTAINS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
COLDER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE SNOW LEVELS TO
DROP TO AROUND 4500 FEET BY 00Z SUNDAY AND THEN THEY WILL BE NEARLY
STEADY AFTER THAT. THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
BLUE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 4500 FEET FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING...BUT ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT
WITH PERHAPS A FEW INCHES. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH DRYING TAKING PLACE FROM WEST TO EAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN NEAR NORMAL TODAY AND THEN WILL COOL TO
ABOUT 3 TO 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WINDS WILL
BE LOCALLY BREEZY AT TIMES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT OVER NORTH
CENTRAL OREGON...OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS. 88

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL THEN DEEPEN OFF THE OR/WA COAST AND PROVIDE
A MORE WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE AREA BY MIDWEEK.  THE BEST BREAK
IN PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY.  MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITH THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW...BUT THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE CASCADES WILL STILL HOLD ONTO A CHANCE TO LIKELY
SHOWERS ALONG THE CREST.  EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT
PASSES.  WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...MODELS DO NOT ANTICIPATE SNOW LEVELS TO FALL BELOW
6000 FT. WEBER

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH STEADY RAIN OVER CENTRAL
OREGON/WASHINGTON CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST. LOW CEILINGS AND
FOG WILL CREATE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT MOST TAF SITES THROUGH MID
MORNING.  EXPECT MOSTLY MVFR TO MARGINAL VFR CONDITIONS FROM 15Z
ONWARD. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE FROM SCT-BKN CHANGING CATEGORIES
FREQUENTLY OVER SHORT PERIODS OF TIME...ESPECIALLY WHEN
PRECIPITATION IS NEARBY.  WINDS MAINLY 5-15KT.  WEBER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  54  40  51  36 /  70  60  50  10
ALW  57  44  51  39 /  70  60  50  20
PSC  57  42  55  37 /  60  50  30  10
YKM  54  36  54  34 /  70  20  10  10
HRI  56  40  55  37 /  60  50  30  10
ELN  51  36  50  33 /  70  20  10  10
RDM  50  31  48  28 /  80  60  10  10
LGD  58  41  46  34 /  50  70  70  30
GCD  56  38  46  33 /  60  70  60  30
DLS  56  42  54  41 /  80  20  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/89/89






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