Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pendleton, OR

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000
FXUS66 KPDT 291206 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
506 AM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF
THE OREGON COAST WILL LIFT NEWD INTO NW WASHINGTON AND DEAMPLIFY AS
IT MOVES INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE MAIN IMPACT
FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SOME RAIN ALONG THE CASCADES AND GUSTY SW
WINDS FROM MID MORNING UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WIND ADVISORIES
ARE IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. WITH LITTLE RAIN
EXPECTED EAST OF THE CASCADES EXPECT SOME BLOWING DUST AS WELL.
BLOWING DUST ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE BLUE MOUNTAIN
FOOTHILLS...YAKIMA VALLEY AND COLUMBIA BASIN. LOOKING AT THE PAST
FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONGEST WIND TODAY WILL
BE OVER THE YAKIMA VALLEY AND SIMCOE HIGHLANDS WITH GUST POTENTIAL
REACHING 50 TO 55 MPH LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS MAKES SENSE BECAUSE THIS AREA IS CLOSER TO THE TRACK OF THE
UPPER TROUGH. WINDS WILL DECREASE QUICKLY BY EARLY EVENING. AS A
SECOND UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES LATER TONIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD EAST OF THE CASCADES. THIS RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. BUMPED UP POPS QUITE A BIT FOR SUNDAY TO
REFLECT THE MODELS WETTER TRENDING...AND POPS MAY NEED TO BE RAISED
FURTHER. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR QUARTER INCH AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM
OVER A WIDE AREA WHICH WOULD REALLY HELP WITH THE ONGOING FIRES. BY
MONDAY THE TROUGH WILL HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE REGION WITH GENERALLY
DRY CONDITIONS AND COOL TEMPERATURES. 78

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY..THE AREA WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD
AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED. ON MONDAY NIGHT THE TROUGH WILL
BE BROAD AND SHALLOW WITH A WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. AN UPPER
LOW WILL BE OFF THE NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST AND WILL SINK
SOUTH, ENDING UP NEAR NORTHERN VANCOUVER ISLAND BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET VERY FAR PAST THE
CASCADE CREST THOUGH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, THERE SHOULD BE A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS AS FAR EAST AS YAKIMA AND ELLENSBURG. THE REST OF THE
AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE UPPER LOW WILL DEEPEN THE TROUGH AND TURN THE FLOW OVER OUR AREA
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE ENTIRE AREA.
ANOTHER IMPULSE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TROUGH ON THURSDAY AND BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN CENTRAL OREGON AND THE BLUE MOUNTAIN
FOOTHILLS. THE GFS SHOWS THE IMPULSE CARVING THE TROUGH FURTHER
SOUTH ON FRIDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS. THE ECMWF IS LESS VIGOROUS WITH THIS IMPULSE AND DOES NOT
SHOW ANY PRECIPITATION BUT DOES DEEPEN THE TROUGH SOMEWHAT. HAVE
LEANED TOWARDS THE GFS AND PUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. ON SATURDAY, BOTH MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH
STARTING TO MOVE EASTWARD WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY IN WALLOWA COUNTY AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE REST OF THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS. TUESDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND
LOWER 80S. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 60S TO MID 70S. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES BACK
IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH MID 60S TO MID 70S IN THE
MOUNTAINS. PERRY


&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS HOWEVER A FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY TO MIDDAY SATURDAY WILL CAUSE
MVFR AND PERHAPS IFR VISIBILITIES DUE TO BLOWING DUST AT KPSC, KALW,
KPDT AND KYKM. WINDS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KTS ARE
EXPECTED FROM 17Z TO 01Z BEFORE WINDING DOWN TO BELOW 15 KTS BY 04Z.
KDLS IS EXPECTED TO HAVE WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS
DUE TO THE EAST/WEST ORIENTATION OF THE COLUMBIA GORGE BEING
SOMEWHAT SHELTERED FROM THE SOUTHWEST WINDS. CEILINGS WILL BE
GENERALLY SCATTERED TO BROKEN ABOVE 5000 FEET AGL. RAIN SHOWERS WILL
BE CONFINED TODAY TO IN AND NEAR THE CASCADES WITH KDLS HAVING -SHRA
THROUGH 20Z AND KRDM AND KBDN HAVING VCSH THROUGH 19Z. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING -SHRA TO KDLS AND KYKM AFTER 08Z. PERRY


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  81  54  72  50 /  10  10  50  10
ALW  83  61  73  54 /  10  10  60  10
PSC  83  58  76  56 /  10  10  60  10
YKM  74  53  70  48 /  20  50  40  10
HRI  85  57  74  53 /  10  10  50  10
ELN  74  53  72  50 /  30  50  50  10
RDM  77  48  67  39 /  20  10  50  10
LGD  83  47  69  46 /  20  10  50  10
GCD  82  46  71  36 /  10  10  40  10
DLS  80  61  75  56 /  30  70  70  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 6 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ORZ510-511.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     FOR ORZ640>645.

     BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ORZ044-507-508.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     FOR ORZ044-507-508.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     FOR WAZ641-643-645-675.

     BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR WAZ027>029.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     FOR WAZ027>029-521.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

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