Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, OR

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817
FXUS66 KPQR 252119 RRA
AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Portland OR
220 PM PDT Sat Jun 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Building high pressure over the region will bring
abundant sunshine over the next several days. Mild southwest flow
aloft will ensure much more summer-like temperatures, especially
inland. This pattern will continue well into next week. Only
exception will be a weak upper level disturbance that may trigger a
few thunderstorms over the Cascades later Monday afternoon and
evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday Night)...Upper level ridging
has started to build up the west coast today. This will lead to
warmer and drier weather through the short term period. Sunday will
be warmer than today as heights continue to build aloft and winds
turn mainly offshore.

A weak wave moves through the area on Monday. The passage of this
wave will introduce weak onshore flow during the day Monday. This may
provide just enough instability for convection to form near the
Cascade crests. Inherited 20 POP for the crests seems reasonable at
this time. With the weak onshore flow during the day Monday, will see
coastal stratus return late in the day. In addition, expect scattered
stratus development in the eastern portion of the valley Monday
Night. /Bentley

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday Night)...Long term period
will be an extension of the short term with warm and dry weather
persisting. GFS has the next system arriving by next weekend, while
the ECMWF keeps our area clear and warm into next week. Either way,
summer pattern has arrived with above normal temperatures and below
normal precip through at least Friday./Bentley
&&

.AVIATION...Predominately VFR conditions continue this afternoon
across the region. Generally light NW low-level wind expected
through the evening inland, but gustier conditions along the coast
with gusts to 15 kt near KAST and closer to 25 kt near KONP and
K6S2. Expect return of marine stratus to the north coast, and
perhaps the central coast, with lower MVFR cigs. Coastal winds
ease a bit overnight but gusty winds resume Sunday. Still
sufficient residual low-level moisture across the interior
lowlands for potential patchy low clouds developing late tonight,
though confidence is not particularly high in seeing cigs develop
at any particular terminal.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR under mostly clear skies and relatively
light NW surface wind. Skies remain clear into the evening and
wind becomes light tonight, with possible patchy low clouds
developing after 12z Sunday.   /Cullen

&&

.MARINE...A ridge of high pressure continues to build over the
waters and will remain through the weekend. As a thermal trough
of low pres builds up along the southern Oregon coast later this
afternoon and evening, expect north winds to increase with gusts
to 30 kt south of Cascade Head. Winds north of Cascade Head
likely to remain around 20 kt, with potential for a few local
gusts to 25 kt south of Cannon Beach. Made no changes to current
advisory for the southern zones, as it is possible that gusts to
25 kt linger through much of the overnight hours. The breezy
north winds are expected to continue into early next week, with
possible advisory strength gusts over all zones Sunday and Monday.
With the increase in north winds, steep seas are likely to develop
as a result of the wind waves and fresh swell, but overall wave
heights likely remain in the 5 to 7 ft range. /Cullen

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory for winds until 3 AM PDT Sunday for
     Coastal Waters from Cascade Head OR to Florence OR out 60
     nm.

&&


$$

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This discussion is for Northwest Oregon and Southwest Washington
from the Cascade crest to 60 nautical miles offshore. The area is
commonly referred to as the forecast area.



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