Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, OR

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FXUS66 KPQR 272109
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
206 PM PDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...PLEASANT EVENING...BUT A CHANGE IS COMING LATER TONIGHT
AND TUE. COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS REGION TUE...WITH A RETURN OF
COOL AND AREAS OF RAIN. COOL SHOWERY WEATHER CONTINUES ON WED AND
THU...THEN BACK TO SPRING WITH MILD DRY DAYS AS HIGH PRES BUILDS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY..
GENERALLY A VERY PLEASANT DAY AND EVENING ACROSS REGION...WITH MILD
TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS. BUT THIS WILL CHANGE LATER TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE APPROACHES.

THAT FRONT IS NOW ABOUT 600 MILES OFFSHORE...AND WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION TUE AM. THOUGH DYNAMICS ARE NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO BRING A BAND OF RAIN TO THE COAST BY DAYBREAK TUE...
THEN PUSH INLAND. NOT A LOT OF RAINFALL...BUT LIKELY 0.10 TO 0.20
INCH OF RAIN...THOUGH MAY SEE LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS FOR AREAS ON
FAR N OREGON COAST/COAST RANGE AND NORTHWARD. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
INLAND DURING THE DAY...WITH CHANGE OVER TO SHOWERY PRECIPITATION
DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH ALL OF THE CLOUD COVER...AND MUCH COOLER
AIR MASS...HIGH TEMPS FOR TUE WILL STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH ABOVE THE
LOWER 60S INLAND. WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S ALONG THE COAST.

MODELS HAVE CONTINUE TO BACK OFF ON THREAT OF SHOWERS FOR REGION
LATER TUE NIGHT AND WED. BUT WITH DECENT LATE APRIL SUNSHINE AND
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SCOOTING ACROSS REGION... SEEMS
REASONABLE TO KEEP LIKELY POPS FOR WED. STILL COOL WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPS FOR LATE APRIL...THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. ROCKEY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. FEW CHANGES TO THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH THE MODELS REMAINING IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FEW WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MAY
PASS SOMEWHAT CLOSE TO THE REGION BUT SHOULD GENERALLY STAY WELL TO
THE NORTH IN NORTHERN WASHINGTON OR SOUTHERN CANADA. WITH A
CONTINUED TREND OF MORE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATING DRY WEATHER...
IN ADDITION TO SUPPORT FROM THE OPERATIONAL 12Z RUNS...REDUCED POPS
TO ELIMINATE SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. OVERALL...EXPECT TEMPERATURES REMAINING  CLOSE TO
NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER AND GENERALLY PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. THE NEXT ORGANIZED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE TOWARDS
THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.   CULLEN
&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD VFR TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE
NEXT FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING WITH IT A
MIXTURE OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS. EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VSBY TO
MOVE IN ALONG THE COAST AROUND 05Z...WITH MVFR CIGS PUSHING
INLAND AFTER 10Z. LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE LOOKS TO APPROACH THE
COAST AROUND 12Z AND INLAND AFTER 14Z. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN
INLAND AFTER 18Z...BUT THE COAST WILL LIKELY REMAIN MVFR THROUGH
TOMORROW EVENING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR TO CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLY AFTER 10Z AS THE NEXT FRONT MOVES
INLAND WITH LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE POSSIBLE AFTER 14Z. /64
&&

.MARINE...BENIGN WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING
WITH IT INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS WEAKEN AND TURN WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS TO BRUSH BY THE
WATERS ON WED. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK...WITH A SURFACE THERMAL LOW LIKELY BUILDING OVER THE S
OREGON/N CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING ADVISORY WINDS
TO THE WATERS THIS WEEKEND.

SEAS CURRENTLY RUNNING AROUND 6 TO 7 FT. HOWEVER...A BUILDING
WESTERLY SWELL BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH SEAS ABOVE 10 FT
LATE TUE AND WED. SEAS SUBSIDE BACK TO AROUND 6 TO 7 FT LATE WED
AND LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW 10 FT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUE AM ON ALL COASTAL WATERS.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



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