Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ

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FXUS65 KPSR 281156
AFDPSR
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
455 AM MST THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND DRY WEATHER IS IN THE FORECAST AT LEAST THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FOR THE LOWER DESERTS WILL WARM TO
BETWEEN 105 AND 108 DEGREES THIS WEEKEND...THEN COOL SLIGHTLY GOING
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A STRONG PACIFIC RIDGE IS ON THE HORIZON FOR THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AS
THE FAIRLY PERSISTENT TROUGHING PATTERN EXPERIENCED RECENTLY WILL
COME TO AN END. CLEAR SKIES ARE CURRENTLY SEEN ACROSS ARIZONA AND
CALIFORNIA...THOUGH SOME THIN HIGH CIRRUS WILL EVENTUALLY AFFECT THE
REGION FROM TIME TO TIME OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. 500MB HEIGHTS
WILL RISE FROM AROUND 582DM CURRENTLY TO BETWEEN 585-588DM FOR THIS
WEEKEND. THE PAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A STRONGER
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND HIGHER HEIGHTS. THIS HAS PROMPTED US TO RAISE
OUR TEMPERATURE FORECAST A BIT MAINLY FOR THIS WEEKEND.

FOR TODAY...SOME AREAS WILL BE FLIRTING WITH 100 DEGREES AND THEN
MOST LOWER DESERT SPOTS SHOULD EASILY TOP THE CENTURY MARK ON FRIDAY.
AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD THIS WEEKEND...THE WARMEST AIR WILL
BE IN PLACE RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE 104-107 RANGE. THIS IS BY FAR
THE WARMEST WE WILL BE SO FAR THIS YEAR...THOUGH IT WILL STILL BE A
FEW DEGREES SHY OF MEETING EXCESSIVE HEAT CRITERIA. SUNDAY WILL
LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH SATURDAY AND MONDAY ONLY A DEGREE OR
TWO LOWER.

GOING INTO NEXT WEEK...THE RIDGE WILL EVENTUALLY GET BOOTED INTO THE
PLAINS AS A FAIRLY LARGE PACIFIC LOW APPROACHES THE WEST COAST LATE
SUNDAY. OVERALL CONSENSUS AMONG MODELS KEEPS ALL OF THE ENERGY MAINLY
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...BUT STARTING MONDAY IT SHOULD HELP TO
LOWER HEIGHTS SLIGHTLY OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AM EXPECTING THIS
TO HELP TO COOL THINGS OFF SLIGHTLY GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WHERE HIGHS SHOULD DIP BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDING OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP SKIES GENERALLY
CLEAR NEXT 24 HOURS AT THE TAF SITES. LIGHT GRADIENTS AT THE SURFACE
WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BE MOSTLY LIGHT AND DIURNAL THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING WITH SPEEDS MOSTLY AOB 8KT. EXPECT WINDS AT KIPL AND KBLH TO
FAVOR THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST NEXT 24 HOURS. NO AVIATION CONCERNS AT
ANY TAF SITE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD DRY WEATHER WILL FINALLY
RETURN TO THE DISTRICT THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
MORE PROMINENT HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL OVER 100F WILL BE COMMON AT LOWER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS YIELDING MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 10 PERCENT
FOLLOWING FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. SFC WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY WEAK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE USUAL AFTERNOON UPSLOPE GUSTINESS...
HOWEVER A PERIODS OF SOMEWHAT STRONGER WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...MO/CB




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