Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ
FXUS65 KPSR 252154
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
255 PM MST Tue Apr 25 2017
A series of mainly dry Pacific weather disturbances will move across
the western states through early next week. These systems will keep
afternoon temperatures near or slightly below normal, along breezy
afternoons and evenings. One stronger disturbance on Friday has the
potential to produce a slight chance of afternoon showers over the
eastern Arizona mountains.
A cold front from Nevada was moving through central AZ at 2 PM MST
and just about through Phoenix. This system is dry but has a good
wind punch. Gusty west to northwest winds across the south central
AZ deserts and mountains, including Phoenix, are still expected this
afternoon/evening in the 25 to 35 mph range, with gusts to 45 mph in
southern Gila County to the east. A Wind Advisory and Red Flag
warning is posted for much of south central AZ through 7 pm MST.
Gusty north winds are expected to diminish overnight becoming north
8 to 14 mph most areas after midnight. Clear skies are also forecast
Wednesday through Tuesday...
Dry northwest flow aloft will continue over our forecast area,
southeast CA to south central AZ, into the weekend. Several fast
moving disturbances will continue in this flow pattern, keeping
afternoon temperatures near or slightly below normal under mostly
clear skies. However one strong disturbance will deepen
significantly over eastern AZ on Friday, moving from northwest to
southeast, producing another episode of gusty afternoon and evening
winds. A slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm is also forecast
over the mountains of southern Gila County zone 24. Modeled
soundings forecast a short window of afternoon C.A.P.E for a threat
of instability showers. A trend toward above normal temperatures
are expected early next week.
South-Central Arizona Including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL:
Very gusty conditions today over Phoenix terminals. West winds
will continue to increase this morning and peak this afternoon
between 21Z and 01Z. Winds near 15 to 20 kts with gusts up to 25
kts this morning, will increase to 20 to 30 kts with gusts up to
40 kts this afternoon and early evening. Near midnight, winds will
taper down and shift to a more northwesterly direction with
speeds between 5 to 15 kts. Northeasterly winds will then initiate
sometime near 12 to 15Z and remain light aob 10 kts. FEW clouds
near 15 kft will continue to diminish this morning, with FEW to
SCT high clouds aoa 25 kft persisting throughout the TAF period.
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona Including KIPL and KBLH:
At KIPL, winds will favor a west to northwest direction with wind
speeds between 10 to 15 kts and gusts up to 20 kts through early
this afternoon. Thereafter, winds will remain out of the west but
weaken to 5 to 10 kts. At KBLH, expect similar conditions to
KIPL, with slightly higher wind speeds and a more northerly
component to the wind direction. Skies will remain mostly clear
with SCT high clouds aoa 25 kft this morning.
Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.
Friday through Tuesday:
Temperatures will continue to hold at or above seasonal averages
today, with minimum RH values mostly below 15 percent as dry
northwest flow aloft persists over the area. Expect afternoon
westerly breezes especially over south central Arizona. A cooling
trend will settle into the region as mostly dry storm systems sweep
through the Great Basin and down through the Southwest. Outside of a
slight chance at some light showers over high terrain of Gila County
Friday into Saturday, widespread dry weather will cover the
districts. Dry afternoons with 5-10% will be common with overnight
humidities varying between mostly fair to good. Active storm track
through the West will keep afternoons breezy for the district, with
upslope west winds and occasional gusts possible through week`s end.
There continues to be potential for widespread dangerous fire
weather conditions Friday into Saturday as windy conditions develop
across most of the area - especially south-central Arizona on Friday
- and minimum RH values drop into the single digits across much of
the lower desert. The cooling trend may help mitigate some of the
fire danger potential however but this is something to keep our eyes
on as we move towards the latter part of the week.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation will not be needed through the middle of next
AZ...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MST this evening for AZZ132.
Wind Advisory until 7 PM MST /7 PM PDT/ this evening for
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