Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 190052 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 850 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 .SYNOPSIS...
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A vigorous upper-level disturbance and reinforcing surface cold front will move across the area tonight. Canadian high pressure will follow and build across the Southeast through midweek.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 850 PM Monday... Satellite imagery reveals a nice blossoming of clouds and colder cloud tops over central NC. This is in association with the vigorous upper-trough and shortwave moving through the region at the moment. The deepest lift with this trough will be between 8 pm and 2 am. After that, the trough is expected to lift off the coast. Local and regional radar shows some echoes over the southern Piedmont, but we have yet to see any observations reporting any measurable rain. Forecast soundings show a fair bit of dry air below 5 kft. However, as the trough slides eastward, the GFS and NAM-NEST show decent moistening of the column between 850 and 700 mb and in the mixed- phase region. This is most prominent along a line from Fayetteville to Goldsboro and points east. While the low-levels are dry with dewpoints crashing into the teens and 20s, we did increase PoPs to around 30-percent mainly SE of the Triangle and southern Coastal Plain. Most of the echoes on radar will be virga given the dry air at sub-cloud layer, but there should be enough forcing to squeeze out some patchy light rain in these areas. The freeze warning remains in effect for the southern Piedmont. Given some recent model guidance, we lowered lows a few degrees in the typical cooler spots as winds relax toward sunrise and CAA maximizes. Before winds die down, gusts out of the NW of 25-30 mph will be common before midnight. Lows will range from the upper 20s to low 30s in the western/southern Piedmont and low to mid 30s in the Sandhills to Coastal Plain. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 400 PM Monday... Strong flow aloft will develop Tuesday with a strong ridge along the West Coast and a deep low across SE Canada. At the surface, high pressure will build further east into the Deep South, switching surface flow from westerly to southwesterly across central NC. Winds will strengthen during the day due to the approaching surface high and a deep low moving SE, just north of the Great Lakes. Wind gusts of 20 to 25 mph are possible across much of the area. A dry airmass across the region will help dew point temperatures drop into the teens Tuesday afternoon, and with highs approaching the mid to upper 50s, relative humidity will lower to 20 to 30 percent across most areas. With dry fuels in place across much of the area, an Increased Fire Danger Statement has been issued for the northern Piedmont, Coastal Plain and eastern Sandhills for late in the morning through early evening. Winds will somewhat diminish in the evening, and with clear skies, good radiational cooling will make for a chilly night with lows near normal to 5 degrees below normal. Increasing thicknesses will keep most areas from dropping below freezing. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 320 PM Monday... By Wednesday morning, low pressure will be centered over southeastern Ontario with a cold front extending to the southwest, with the influence of high pressure contained close to the Gulf Coast. The cold front will move across the area from northwest to southeast during the afternoon/evening hours, bringing an increase in wind during that period. The dry conditions that have been present through the week will continue both Wednesday and Thursday, although the wind speeds will be less behind the front on Thursday. The combination of higher wind and low relative humidity could bring an increased fire danger on Wednesday. The frontal passage itself will not bring any precipitation itself as there won`t even be much moisture for cloud cover. Behind the cold front, high pressure will extend southeast from central Canada into the Carolinas on Thursday. The high will shift east Thursday night, and by Friday morning, rain will be approaching the area from the southwest related to a developing low over the Gulf of Mexico. The GFS/GEFS has consistently remained a quicker solution compared to the ECMWF/EPS, especially in regards to the low center, but there is enough agreement between models to increase pops to likely for all locations except the northwestern quadrant of the forecast area Friday afternoon/night. The 12Z GFS shows the low over the Delmarva Peninsula Saturday morning, while the 12Z ECMWF still has the low center off the coast of Georgia. Will have pops decreasing through Saturday and Sunday, keeping some pops in case the slower European solution does verify. All models agree that precipitation will have moved offshore by Sunday night and Monday as high pressure builds over eastern Canada and a ridge extends south along the East Coast. There is high confidence that Wednesday will be the warmest of the next seven days in advance of the cold front, with highs ranging from the mid 60s to the mid 70s. Temperatures should be at or below normal through the rest of the forecast. The day with the most uncertainty to the high temperatures is Friday, as there could be a short-lived cold-air damming episode with high pressure briefly over New York as the Gulf of Mexico low advances northeast. Overnight lows will be above freezing throughout the extended period, and no need for frost/freeze headlines is anticipated. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 745 PM Monday... West to northwest wind gusts of 15 to 25 kt are possible this evening as an upper disturbance moves by. Winds will slightly diminish overnight, then increase again Tuesday and shift southwesterly by the afternoon, with gusts around 20 kt expected. Outlook: LLWS is possible Tues night into early Wed as winds at 2k ft increase to 30-40 kts. A storm system approaches the area Fri afternoon into Sat bringing a high chance for sub-VFR conditions. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through the period. && .FIRE WEATHER... As of 400 PM Monday... Elevated fire weather conditions are possible at times through mid- week as relative humidity drops to 20 to 30 percent, and wind gusts increase to 20-25 mph. Relative humidity will drop to the aforementioned values in the afternoons through Thursday, however wind gusts of 20 to 25 mph are mostly expected Tue and Wed afternoons. With dry fuels across most areas, an Increased Fire Danger Statement has been issued for the northern Piedmont, Coastal Plain and eastern Sandhills for late Tue morning through the early evening. Refer to your local burn-permitting authority on whether you may burn. If you do burn, exercise extreme caution. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for NCZ073>076-083-084. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Kren/MWS NEAR TERM...Kren SHORT TERM...JJT LONG TERM...Green AVIATION...JJT FIRE WEATHER...JJT

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