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000
FXUS62 KRAH 260713 RRA
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
313 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will dominate the eastern United States through the
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
As of 310 AM Thursday...

The surface ridge will amplify swwd through central NC through this
morning and remain over the area through tonight. As of 06Z, the
layer of marine stratus has spread over much of the Coastal Plain
and into the eastern Piedmont. This stratus will continue spreading
westward through the area over the next few hours and remain through
daybreak before lifting and/or scattering out through mid-day.
Additionally, with increased isentropic lift as relatively warm,
moist air advects over the cool surface ridge, clouds may also
develop in the 700mb to 850mb layer. Cannot rule out a brief period
of light rain/drizzle over the far western Piedmont as a result, but
for now expect that threat to be mainly west of the area. While
cloud cover this aft/eve should be a bit more scattered across the
SE half of central NC, broken/overcast skies are expected to prevail
over the NW. Temperatures this morning should generally range from
mid/upper 40s north to mid 50s south. Highs to range from mid 60s NW
to mid 70s SE. With continued isentropic lift over the NW Piedmont
tonight, expect cloud bases to lower once again, with a period of
light rain/drizzle possible. Elsewhere the weather should remain dry
through tonight. Lows tonight ranging from mid/upper 40s NE to mid
50s SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 235 PM Thursday...

Mid-level ridging will continue to move over the southeast Friday
night with continued wnwly flow over central NC.  In the lower
levels, light esely flow will continue through Saturday morning. At
the sfc, a warm frontal zone draped over the deep south/TN valley
will move north into Ohio Valley through Saturday morning. Some
patchy, light rain associated with this feature may spill over into
the Triad for a few hours Friday night, but overall the area should
remain dry. Higher POPs appear more likely across the NC foothills
and eastern slopes of the mountains. Otherwise, expect cloudy
conditions to persist through much of Saturday. Dry conditions are
then expected to continue on Sunday under ridging aloft.

Temperature wise, Saturday will remain a bit cooler in the lower to
mid 70s.  Sfc flow will turn more sswly on Sunday warming temps
closer to around 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 355 PM Thursday...

Central NC will be under the influence of a high-amplitude mid/upper
ridge as it slowly migrates across the eastern US on Sunday and
Monday. At the surface, western Atlantic high pressure will weaken
and shift south from off the NC coast on Sunday to off the GA/SC
coast by Monday, shifting the surface flow to a S/SW direction. This
will bring mostly sunny skies and very warm temperatures, with highs
increasing from upper-70s to lower-80s on Sunday to mid-to-upper-80s
on Monday. Lows will be in the mid-50s to 60. While these
temperatures won`t break any records, they are still 5-15 degrees
above normal.

Clouds and precipitation chances will increase on Tuesday as the
ridge gets replaced by a shortwave trough approaching from the west,
reaching the Appalachians by Tuesday evening. However, the shortwave
doesn`t look too impressive and model QPF is on the light side.
Furthermore, models now show the actual synoptic cold front may not
make it to central NC, with only the lingering prefrontal surface
trough remaining and no temperature drop. So continue just
afternoon/evening slight to low chance POPs in the north and west,
while the ridge should continue to suppress convection in the east.

Isolated convection may continue on Wednesday from the lingering
surface trough and outflow boundaries, and by this time it could be
across the whole area as the ridge shifts farther offshore. Coverage
still doesn`t look too great with a lack of synoptic forcing.
Instability may be sufficient for a few storms Tuesday and Wednesday
with a very warm air mass in place, as highs still reach the mid-to-
upper-80s. The next southern stream trough and cold front will move
into the central US on Thursday, and timing has slowed down on the
GFS and ECMWF compared to prior runs. This favors continued warm
temperatures with isolated shower/storm chances at best.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 155 AM Friday...

24 hour TAF period: Expect cigs to gradually become MVFR then IFR
from NNE to SSW over the next few hours. Lowest cigs at KRDU/KRWI,
possibly dropping below 500 ft. Cigs should lift/scatter through the
morning hours, with a return to VFR at all terminals by early aft.
Otherwise, expect VFR conditions to dominate through 03Z Sat, with a
redevelopment of some MVFR cigs and some light rain/drizzle will be
possible at KINT/KGSO during the last few hours of the TAF period.

Outlook: While the MVFR cigs will be most prevalent at KINT/KGSO
through Sat morn, cannot rule out some sct/bkn low stratus elsewhere
around daybreak Sat. While more uncertain at this time, there may
also be some borderline VFR/MVFR cigs Sun morn as well. Otherwise,
largely VFR conditions are expected through Tue. There is also a non-
zero chance for some patchy light rain, mainly in the Triad, Fri
night/Sat, otherwise generally dry weather is expected through Mon.
The next chance for showers will be Tue aft/eve.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Green
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...Luchetti
LONG TERM...Danco
AVIATION...KC