Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000
FXUS62 KRAH 230108
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
907 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MEANDER ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY TRACK FURTHER OFFSHORE ON
THURSDAY. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE REGION
IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 907 PM WEDNESDAY...

VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE DELMARVA COAST WILL
INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD UP THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST THROUGH THU/THU NIGHT. AS THE THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE
AREA...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST.  BROKEN/OVERCAST SKY CONDITIONS ACROSS NE
PIEDMONT/NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WILL CLEAR OUT BY DAYBREAK...WITH
BREEZY NWLY WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

MIN TEMPS THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
40S...EXCEPT SOME UPPER 30S IN THE TYPICAL OUTLYING AREAS. HIGHS
THURSDAY 65-70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 247 PM WEDNESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER THE GULF COAST STATES
AND EXTEND ACROSS OUR REGION FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FRIDAY AS THE INFLUENCE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW TO OUR
NE WANES FOR CENTRAL NC. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS 70-75.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 247 PM WEDNESDAY...

A BACKDOOR FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLIP THROUGH OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTH ON SUNDAY. IT SHOULD PASS RELATIVELY UNNOTICED OTHER THAN A
WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH... BUT SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT (GENERALLY
10 MPH OR LESS). CAA WILL BE FELT MOSTLY AFTER DARK SUNDAY BUT (DRY
AIR ADVECTION WILL START EARLY IN THE DAY AS DEW POINTS WILL DROP
OFF MORE SIGNIFICANTLY. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70-73 RANGE SUNDAY
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURES MONDAY SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S... THEN MODERATE QUICKLY BACK INTO 70-75 RANGE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE BEING DOMINATE. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL
SOMETIME WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT - AND CURRENT INDICATIONS
SUGGEST THAT IT SHOULD BE A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM WEDNESDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD AS DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES...WHILE AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. AFTER A BREEZY DAY TODAY...THE
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS HAVE DECREASED THIS EVENING...BUT ARE EXPECTED
TO PICK UP ONCE AGAIN ON THURSDAY (ALTHOUGH NOT AS STRONG AS TODAY).
LINGERING CLOUDS IN THE NORTHEAST (INCLUDING KRWI)...WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AS A STRONG UPPER LOW (CURRENTLY NEAR THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST) BEGINS TO MOVE AWAY. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL PREVAIL.

OUTLOOK...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE WEATHER REMAINS DOMINATED BY DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...PWB
LONG TERM...PWB
AVIATION...KRD



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