Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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FXUS62 KRAH 301413 RRA
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1013 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS BEFORE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND RETROGRADING COASTAL FRONT CAUSES PRECIPITATION TO BECOME
MORE LIKELY FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM WEDNESDAY...

LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTH OVERNIGHT IS NOW CONFINED
TO HALIFAX COUNTY AND SHOULD BE DISSIPATING SHORTLY AS SHALLOW
MOISTURE BETWEEN 850 AND 750 MB WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY ACCORDING TO
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THIS LAYER DOES RE-APPEAR THIS AFTERNOON OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...THEREFORE SOME WEAK SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLY WITH AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CLOUDS IN THE 5-8 KFT RANGE. OTHERWISE...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS
PARKED IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH...SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE APPALACHIANS.
THEREFORE WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CONFINED TO THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA. THICKNESS VALUES SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY SUGGEST SIMILAR TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH
LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM WEDNESDAY...

SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING DOWN THE BACK-SIDE OF THE HIGHLY AMPLITUDE
LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL CAUSE THE TROUGH AXIS CENTERED OVER THE REGION
THURSDAY MORNING TO RETROGRADE TO THE MS RIVER THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. STALLED COASTAL TROUGH/FRONT OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL FOLLOW SUITE...WITH SELY MOISTURE RETURN FLOW LEADING
TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH OVERRUNNING PRECIP
DEVELOPING THURSDAY NIGHT/PREDAWN HOURS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE COASTAL
TROUGH MOVES INLAND. HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT TO SMALL CHANCE POPS
AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS THURSDAY 82-87. LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM WEDNESDAY...

MODELS CONTINUE TO CONVERGE TOWARDS A WETTER SOLUTION FOR THE LONG
TERM...ALTHOUGH THE EXACT DETAILS OF WHERE/WHEN THE BEST CHANCES OF
PRECIP WILL OCCUR ARE STILL RATHER UNCERTAIN. THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT WESTWARD...NUDGING THE HIGHLY
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BACK TOWARDS THE MS RIVER VALLEY. THE LINGERING
FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH WILL WILL ALSO MOVE CLOSER TO THE COAST...AND
LIKELY INLAND BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND...BEFORE WASHING OUT
NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION... MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE (PWATS
RISING BACK OVER 1.5 INCHES BY FRIDAY...THEN APPROACHING 2 INCHES BY
SATURDAY/SUNDAY) AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH NOW TO OUR WEST. BESIDES SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RESULTING FROM THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND LINGERING
INVERTED TROUGH...ENHANCED PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
PASSING DISTURBANCES ALOFT...WHICH ARE HARD TO PINPOINT WITH ANY
CERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...ONE LOOKS TO
APPROACH THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND THEN ANOTHER ONE IS PROGGED TO
PASS NORTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY...SO WILL SHOW SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS
(RELATIVE TO THE REST OF THE LONG TERM) DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

HIGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 80S (WARMEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK)...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S EARLY IN THE PERIOD
AND MID/UPPER 60S BY LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM WEDNESDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: UPPER DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITHIN THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL
WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. OTHERWISE...DRY AIR
IN THE LOW-LEVELS WILL SUPPORT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

LOOKING AHEAD: EXPECT AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR ADVERSE AVIATION
CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW CEILINGS AND SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A COASTAL FRONT
RETROGRADES INLAND INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE...IN ADVANCE
OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ELLIS
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...CBL/VINCENT



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