Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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FXUS62 KRAH 211424

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1024 AM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017

An upper level trough will drift south of our region today, then
linger while weakening through the end of the week. Surface high
pressure will extend south across the middle Atlantic states for the
next several days.


As of 1024 AM Thursday...

A weak upper low/concentric vort max across eastern NC will drift
slowly eastward throughout the day and will eventually feed into the
broad upper trough extending SW from TC Jose off of the southern New
England Coast. This feature coupled with steep low-level lapse rates
associated with strong insolation will support scattered showers and
thunderstorms, mainly south of the Triangle within the upper trough
Dpva axis.

H8 temps and low-level thickness are forecast to drop off ever so
slightly, so perhaps a degree or two cooler than yesterday, but
still in the same ballpark with afternoon highs in the 85-90 degree
range. Any convection will die off with loss of heating. Overnight
lows in the mid to upper 60s.


As of 215 AM Thursday...

A large ridge, centered over the Midwest, is expected to extend over
our region Friday and Saturday. With the low level flow from the NNE
and the main front well south, dry weather along with slightly above
normal temperatures can be expected. Lows generally 60-65 north, mid
to upper 60s south. Highs lower to mid 80s north, and mid to upper
80s south.


As of 215 AM Thursday...

Obviously, most attention will be focused on TC Maria and the NHC
official track. Currently, models and the NHC suggest a northward
movement, remaining well offshore of the Outer Banks early to mid
week. Plenty of time to watch. For now, dry and seasonably warm
conditions expected for our region under high pressure. Highs
generally in the mid to upper 80s, lows in the mid 60s (with typical
climatological variability) each day.


As of 635 AM Thursday...

24 Hour TAF Period: VFR conditions are generally expected to
continue through the 24 hour TAF period. However, another round of
patchy sub-VFR visbys (mainly MVFR) will be possible this morning
during the pre-dawn hours. Fog prone KRWI will stand the greatest
chance of seeing any IFR/LIFR visbys. Any sub-VFR visbys are
expected to quickly dissipate with sunrise.

Isolated to widely scattered showers and storms will be possible
again this afternoon across central NC, primarily across southern
portions of the region as a slow moving mid to upper level trough
crosses the region. However, confidence is too low to include any
mention the the TAFs at this time.

Outlook: Generally VFR conditions are expected to continue late week
through early next week across the area. However, patchy sub-VFR
conditions in the pre-dawn hours may be possible each morning.





SHORT TERM...Badgett
LONG TERM...Badgett
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