Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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FXUS62 KRAH 251154 RRA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
653 AM EST Sat Feb 25 2017

A strong cold front will push across the region this afternoon and
move offshore by early evening. Colder high pressure will blow into
the area later today and tonight. A warm front will approach from
the south late Monday.


As of 407 AM SATURDAY...

A squall line was driving into the western slopes of the
Appalachians. The line is expected to weaken into a narrow band of
showers/isolated thunderstorms by 12z, when it will be nearing the
Blue Ridge.

Expect the main cold front to push southeast into the mountains
this morning. The pre-frontal line of showers should all but
dissipate according to the latest model guidance. This appears
likely given the current diurnal timing of maximum stability.

Surface heating should allow the temperatures to reach the 70s
to lower 80s this afternoon. Gusty SW winds at 15-25 mph
gusting to 35 mph are expected. Isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms are expected to develop along the residual
pre-frontal trough line as it pushes into the western Piedmont
late morning or early afternoon. Most guidance suggests that
MLCapes will increase to 500 to near 1000 J/KG as surface
dew points rise to between 55-60 during the early afternoon.
Increasing unidirectional shear and strong height falls, most
pronounced north and into VA will aid in forcing for locally
strong to severe storms.

The developing convection is expected to form into a line of
showers and scattered thunderstorms and push through portions of
the region this afternoon. The highest POP should be across
the northern and northeast zones between 100 PM and 500 PM, with
at least some scattered showers/storms possible to the south
including the Southern Piedmont and Sandhills. A couple of the
storms may approach severe limits with the main threats
from damaging wind gusts and large hail.

Once the line passes, the main cold front will arrive in the NW by
mid-afternoon, then in the east late afternoon and early evening.
Much drier and colder air will blow in on NW winds. The skies
will become clear this evening. Winds will gradually diminish
late tonight with lows 30-35, except 35-40 SE.


As of 407 AM SATURDAY...

High pressure will bring dry and seasonable weather Sunday and
Sunday night. Highs Sunday should reach the 55-62 range, with
lows in the 30s. Scattered frost is possible, mainly in rural
and low lying areas.


As of 350 AM Saturday...

A warming trend will commence on Monday as the surface high moves
offshore. However, cloud cover will increase across the area as a
deep southwesterly flow develops. While this will lead to a warming
trend it will also spell a return to unsettle weather with lots of
clouds and periods of showers/storms. The first such disturbance in
the southwesterly flow aloft is expected to move across the area
late Monday into early Tuesday morning. Expect we will see an area
of showers and perhaps a few storms move across the area during this
time. A general lull in precip is expected Tuesday afternoon into
Wednesday, before a more significant s/w is expected to cross the
area along with a strong cold front Wednesday night/early Thursday
morning. High temps ahead of the front area expected to be in the
60s and 70s, with possibly a few lower 80s across the southern and
eastern half of the area on Wednesday. Lows will follow the same
trend, generally in the upper 40s to 50s.

Dry weather is generally expected behind the front as surface high
pressure is expected to initially build into the area, before a
enforcing dry cold front moves across the area on Friday. High
temps behind the initial front late next week are expected to be in
upper 50s to 60s, with lows by Friday morning generally in the 30s.
High Friday are expected to be in the 50s to lower 60s.


As of 650 AM Saturday...

24 Hour TAF Period: IFR/LIFR visbys at KFAY/KRWI will dissipate by
around 13Z or so. Elsewhere VFR conditions are expected to continue
this morning. South to southwesterly winds will increase this
morning in advance of an approaching cold front. Expect winds to
increase into the 15 to 20 mph range by mid to late morning, with
gusts of up 27-33 mph possible late morning into the afternoon. A
cold front an associated broken band of showers and storms will move
across the area this afternoon. The best convective coverage will be
across northern portions of the area, where we could see a few
strong to damaging wind gusts accompanying the strongest storms. Sub-
VFR conditions will be possible with any convection. Winds will veer
to westerly just behind a cold front that will cross the area
immediately behind the showers/storms during the afternoon hours,
then to northwesterly by around 00Z. Wind will decrease to around 7
to 13 mph range by this evening, with some gusts of around 20-23 mph
still possible through mid evening.

Outlook: High pressure will build in from the west tonight through
Sun, moving east and offshore Mon. The next chance for sub-VFR
conditions will be Mon night, lasting through Tue night and perhaps
into Wed, as southwest flow brings in low level moisture and an
increased risk for showers, as well low stratus and fog, especially
dusk through dawn.



Record highs for February 25:

Greensboro:      81 (1930)

Raleigh:         82 (1930)

Fayetteville:    85 (1930)





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