Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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FXUS65 KREV 180418
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
818 PM PST Fri Nov 17 2017

.UPDATE...

Winds are decoupling in many valleys this evening under a clear
sky...or at most a few clouds. This should lead to temperatures
falling a little faster than forecast overnight and slightly lower
morning lows in the coldest valleys. We have updated a few morning
lows around the region and the winds overnight.

The remainder of the short term forecast appears on track with a
ridge building for a couple of days. The models are a little
slower with the onset of precipitation Monday. Neither the GFS nor
the NAM are very aggressive with precipitation Monday except over
northeast California and parts of western Nevada north of I-80.
Even so...current forecast amounts look fairly light.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 152 PM PST Fri Nov 17 2017/

SYNOPSIS...

Skies are clearing across the region with a dry weekend on tap.
Nights will be cold with mild afternoons. Additional chances for
wet weather will return next week.

SHORT TERM...

The system which brought copious amounts of rain and high elevation
snow to the region has exited with just a few lingering showers in
portions of eastern Nevada this afternoon. A very dry air mass
follows behind for the weekend as high pressure builds into the
region bringing clearing skies, cold nights, and seasonably warm
afternoons. Widespread hard freezes are expected tonight and
Saturday night which may affect vulnerable populations in addition
to pets.

High clouds will begin to increase on Sunday ahead of the next
incoming system. A passing wave flattens the ridge on Monday
bringing light precipitation to portions of northeast California,
the Sierra and northern Nevada. Snow levels will be fairly high,
8000-9000 feet, and liquid totals aren`t overly impressive, so
major travel impacts are unlikely. This system will bring an
increase in wind, but we are only talking typical breezy
conditions. This does set the stage for another system Tuesday
into Wednesday. Please see the long term section for additional
details. - Dawn

LONG TERM...Tuesday through Thanksgiving weekend...

For next week, a large scale trough will remain somewhat stationary
off the coast of British Columbia, which will keep the pattern into
the West relatively active through Thanksgiving weekend. The brunt
of the storms appear to be directed at the Pacific Northwest, but
model variability is such that some waves of moisture could drop
south into the Reno-Tahoe region. The Sierra and western Nevada is
riding a fine-line between some storms and high pressure through the
week, which leads to lower forecaster confidence than usual.

The main storm along with significant moisture pushes into the
Pacific Northwest on Tuesday afternoon with very high snow levels
(well above 9000 feet). Forecast simulations continue to show a
narrow moisture filament which could help to bring better
potential for precipitation for northern portions of the Sierra
and northeast CA. If the storm trends southward towards Reno-
Tahoe, there may be some hydrologic concerns.

Thanksgiving and through the weekend, ridging holds on although it
may flatten a bit by Saturday and Sunday. Although precipitation
chances are forecast to be rather low, there is potential for the
ridge to weaken further in response to storms slamming into the
Pacific Northwest.


Key Takeaways:
* Those with hydrologic interests should stay vigilant through next
  week and monitor forecasts closely.
* Have Thanksgiving travel plans? Plan on dealing with some rain,
  especially if heading into northern CA or the Pacific Northwest.
* While current forecasts are indicating mild weather, it is
  always a good idea to carry chains, extra water, and food when
  venturing into the mountains. -Edan

AVIATION...

A few showers are lingering across eastern Nevada, otherwise partly
to mostly cloudy skies across the region with a few mountain peaks
obscured through late this afternoon. Northerly breezes will
continue to weaken into this evening.

Skies will clear overnight with freezing fog likely in many Sierra
valleys, including for KTRK. There is a 40% chance of seeing FZFG
at or in the vicinity of KTVL as well.

The weekend will feature widespread VFR conditions, outside of
morning FZFG in some Sierra valleys (KTRK), with light winds.
-Dawn

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno



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