Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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FXUS65 KREV 260934

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
234 AM PDT Tue Sep 26 2017


Periods of high clouds and light valley winds are expected through
the week. Gusty east winds are possible near the ridge lines
again tonight. A ridge of high pressure along the west coast is
gradually getting stronger leading to a slow warming trend. A weak
upper level wave will brush by the region by late in the weekend
and could bring a few showers to the Oregon border.



No appreciable changes were made to the existing forecast through
Thursday. Temperatures warm a couple to three degrees each day
with highs increasing from the low 70s for western Nevada and
mid/upper 60s for Sierra valleys to and upper 70s and low 70s
respectively by Thursday.

Otherwise, winds remain light and easterly with the exception of
Sierra ridges which will stay breezy with gusts around 35 mph
tonight. Winds do begin to shift more southwesterly by Thursday
afternoon as upper flow deforms due to an area of low pressure
approaching the Pacific Northwest. Some high level cirrus clouds
will move into northern Nevada today mainly north of interstate 80
with the rest of California and western Nevada remaining mostly
cloud-free. Boyd

.LONG TERM...Friday onward...

Rather significant differences are starting to show up in the
forecast for the weekend and into next week, with increasing
ensemble spread as well. Being that fall is a transition season, in
addition to ongoing Atlantic hurricanes changing downstream
conditions, would tend to lead to more chaotic long range
forecast scenarios.

The upper ridge begins to flatten Friday in response to an incoming
trough, which may bring an increase in winds Friday into Saturday.
The latest operational GFS and ECMWF currently agree on this
trough pushing a cold front across northern Nevada over the
weekend. However, this is also a new development over the past
couple of model runs and the GFS is deeper with the trough than
the EC. This would lead to a cool down this weekend along with a
few light showers possible near the Oregon border.

Where it get much more complicated is the early part of next week.
Operational and ensemble runs have anything from a rebuilding ridge
to a deep trough over the west coast. At this point will just trend
temperatures near normal and maintain the dry forecast outside of
slight chances near the Oregon border to account for the
uncertainty. -Dawn



Widespread VFR conditions outside of patchy morning freezing fog in
the Martis and Sierra valleys, which includes KTRK. While surface
winds will be generally light and northeasterly, ridges along the
Sierra crest continue to gust to around 30-40 kts from the east.
This may create pockets of turbulence from the crest westward.
Winds are expected to subside across ridgelines by Wednesday.


.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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