000
FXUS65 KREV 112111
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
211 PM PDT Thu Apr 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Our warm and dry conditions will quickly transition to
a colder, windier, and more showery by the weekend. Another storms
makes an arrival Friday and lingers through the weekend with periods
of gusty winds, rain and mountain snow, and cooler temperatures.
Plan on some travel and recreation impacts over the weekend. This
cool, unsettled weather persists into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

The 24-hour change in temperatures are roughly running about 2-5
degrees warmer than yesterday already, so western NV valleys are on
track to climb into the upper 70s. RNO has a decent shot of hitting
80 degrees too, which would be our first of the year. Main concern
for today, other than the prime recreation conditions, will be for a
15-25% chance for showers in Mono-Mineral counties and a 10% chance
of a shower in western Lassen County. There will be an increase in
the west to southwesterly winds across the Sierra and into western
Nevada today as the next storm approaches the area. Sierra ridge
wind gusts will range from 40-60 mph this afternoon, with gusts
upwards of 20-30 mph in most lower valleys.

Hope you still have your warm-ish spring/winter clothes handy
because the weekend welcomes another round of not-so-pleasant spring
weather for the Sierra and western Nevada. Ensembles are in good
agreement with a cut-off low impacting the West beginning on Friday.
Unfortunately, the low lingers about through at least Monday, with
some wiggle room on its exit as another trough considers dropping in
on its heels. Here`s a look at the weekend storm first:

* Winds: Strong SW wind gusts 60-80 mph along the Sierra ridges all
  weekend. Plan on period of chop on Lake Tahoe, especially on
  Friday. For the valley areas, the strongest winds will develop on
  Saturday where we could see some wind gusts 35 to 45 mph, the
  strongest south winds may materialize across Mineral and western
  Churchill counties where gusts could be upwards of 40-60 mph.
  Localized areas of blowing dust as well as travel impacts for high
  profile vehicles will be a concern, especially for Highway 95 near
  Walker Lake.

* 3-day Liquid Totals: Mostly all of western Lassen, the greater
  Lake Tahoe area, as well as into Mono County along and west of US-
  395 have a likely (>60%) chance for at least 0.25" of liquid.
  There is a 20-40% chance for at 1.00" of liquid as well with
  stronger bands of rain/snow late Saturday into Sunday morning.
  Many areas throughout eastern Lassen, far western NV, along with
  the inner NV ranges have around a 20-50% chance for at least
  0.25".

* 3-day Snow Totals: Greatest snowfall totals will be confined to
  the Sierra crest. Latest totals have 4-12" along the crests with
  higher totals hedging towards Mono county. Western NV foothills
  range from a Trace to a few inches of snow while the inner NV
  ranges have between 1-4". There is a 20-40% chance of 6+" of
  snowfall from Friday through Sunday for Alpine and Mono counties.
  Meanwhile, ridges around and north of the Tahoe Basin have a 5-10%
  of the same amount. Lower elevation Sierra communities (i.e.
  Truckee, South Lake Tahoe, Bridgeport, Mammoth Lakes, etc.) will
  likely see 1-3" of snowfall through Sunday. Snow levels will start
  out high (8000+ ft) Friday before falling to near 5,000 ft. by
  Sunday.

* Boom/Bust Potential Sat PM - Sun AM: ECMWF EFI shows a decent
  signal for QPF/Snow across northern Lassen/Washoe counties.
  Deterministic models have slight deviations in the position of the
  frontogenetical band that develops, especially with the latest NAM
  setting it up from north-south from the OR border through western
  NV into Mineral county. The early morning timing could result in a
  few lower elevation areas contending with some snow accumulations
  early Sunday morning.

Ensemble clusters for much of next week are in a battle between an
amplifying ridge and a trough. It seems to be about 50/50 for now.
As long as the ridge remains over the E. Pacific, then there will be
potential for cooler troughs to drop down through the Great Basin.

-Edan

&&


.AVIATION...

SHORT TERM OPS (THRU 12Z Friday):

Breezy SW winds through 02Z at area terminals as ridge winds and
gradients begin to increase ahead of approaching low pressure over
the East Pacific. Gusts 20-25 kts. Locally SCT-BKN050-070 with 10-
20% chance of showers vicinity KMMH-KHTH 21Z-04Z .

FRIDAY-SATURDAY OPS:

* Winds increase further with FL100 winds S-SW 40-50 kts, shifting S-
  SE Saturday as the upper low shifts closer to the central CA
  coast. Surface winds will increase and peak during the afternoon/
  evening hours both days with widespread gusts 25-35 kts, locally
  stronger to 40 kts at times. At the surface, direction will vary
  between SE-SW through midday Saturday, but with a notable shift to
  the west along the Hwy 395/I-580 corridor by mid afternoon
  Saturday and across much of western NV by Saturday evening as a
  front surges through. Areas of blowing dust across western NV
  (KLOL-KNFL) reducing visibility below 1SM at times. Moderate
  turbulence at times with LLWS, especially during periods of lulls
  in the surface winds.

* Isolated-scattered showers will develop from the Sierra and Reno-
  Carson City area northward Friday afternoon, then spread to all
  areas Saturday. There will be a 10-30% chance of thunder each day,
  focused along the Sierra, far western NV and areas north of I-80.
  Snow levels will remain above most terminals although they could
  dip briefly to Sierra terminal elevations in heavier showers.
  Expect periods of terrain obscuration and MVFR conditions in rain
  showers for Sierra sites and brief MT TOP obscuration and MVFR
  conditions at lower elevations, especially along and behind the
  front Saturday.

Hohmann

&&


.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Lake Wind Advisory from 11 AM Friday to midnight PDT Friday
     night NVZ002.

CA...Lake Wind Advisory from 11 AM Friday to midnight PDT Friday
     night CAZ072.

&&

$$