Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 280959

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
259 AM MST Tue Feb 28 2017

.SHORT TERM...valid for Tdy and Wed...

Light snow ongoing over southeastern Montana continues to push
eastward this morning. Next shortwave impulse approaches from the
west bringing scattered snow showers to the western zones and
mountains, with isolated snow showers possible over the central
and eastern Plains by afternoon. Significant accumulations are
not expected. By Wednesday, a surface low drops into northeastern
Montana with strong 700 mb winds spreading into south central
Montana. Confidence is increasing that 50 to 60 mph winds will
develop from Livingston to Big Timber Wednesday afternoon. Gusts
40 mph or greater are possible through Billings and into the
Plains by late afternoon. Frontal boundary slides in from the
northeast Wednesday evening. A narrow band of rain/snow along the
front will transition to snow as it moves into Roundup and Miles
City. Models diverge in snow amounts, but a quick 1-2 inches
looks likely from Harlowton to Billings down to Sheridan as the
frontal axis stalls over south central Montana through Thursday
morning. Walsh

.LONG TERM...valid for Thu...Fri...Sat...Sun...Mon...

Models remain in good agreement for much of the extended period.
Confidence is pretty good with regards to the expected long wave
pattern evolution and potential weather impacts, or lack thereof.

We have a low to mid level baroclinic band of precipitation which
will likely linger through Thursday morning across our central
zones. The best chance of measurable snow with this band is
Wednesday night (see short term discussion above), but these bands
tend to linger sometimes. So we have raised PoP`s a bit for
Thursday morning from the Big Horns region into Yellowstone County
and nearby surrounding locations. The band should weaken by
afternoon, however progs suggest another weak wave in the strong
mid level flow tracks across east central Montana by evening. We
do not see much developing from this aside from flurries at this
time as it competes against strong downslope.

Friday and into the weekend we will see some modest ridging
transition to strong W/SW flow aloft. This should result in mainly
dry conditions for the lower elevations, while some orographic
snow still persists at times on west facing slopes of the high
country. We may see some strong wind at times as well, primarily
in the usual gap flow regions of our western zones.

By Sunday evening the jet stream pushes an associated short wave
quickly across our region bringing a chance of precipitation and
blustery conditions thanks to a volatile period of strong fast
moving dynamics. Behind this, models suggest above normal temps
and generally dry conditions for a couple of days. BT



Areas of light snow and IFR ceilings should be expected over
portions of SE Montana through about 16Z this morning. Otherwise,
most areas will be VFR today, but mountain obscurations are still
possible. Another round of snow showers will move into our
western zones this evening leading to areas of light snow and MVFR
conditions. BT


    Tdy Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon
BIL 034 018/039 023/040 029/049 032/052 032/052 030/048
    2/J 12/W    44/S    10/B    12/W    22/W    30/B
LVM 030 016/035 025/039 028/047 034/048 031/046 026/042
    5/J 24/J    33/S    20/N    23/W    33/W    31/N
HDN 037 018/041 023/041 025/050 030/054 030/056 028/051
    1/E 22/W    45/S    10/B    11/B    22/W    30/B
MLS 038 020/039 022/040 028/051 031/054 032/056 031/050
    2/W 24/W    21/B    20/B    11/E    21/B    20/B
4BQ 039 020/040 022/040 026/053 028/056 032/058 030/051
    2/W 33/W    41/E    00/B    00/B    11/B    20/B
BHK 034 017/034 016/033 023/048 029/053 030/054 029/046
    2/J 24/J    20/B    21/B    11/B    11/B    20/B
SHR 033 012/037 019/038 022/050 028/053 030/055 026/047
    2/J 21/B    43/S    10/B    01/B    11/B    20/N




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