Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 272052
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
252 PM MDT SAT AUG 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...valid for Sun and Mon...

Dirty W/NW flow aloft has resulted in some clouds over the region
much of the day. Periodic clouds will continue overnight as the
flow aloft gradually backs to the west. Otherwise, the atmosphere
will not support any decent convection so look for a quiet night.

As mentioned in the previous discussion, we will likely see an
increase in smoke over our CWA from upstream wildfires in western
MT and northwest WY and Idaho. I have added the mention of haze
to much of our western and central CWA through Monday. The
combination of clouds and smoke may shave a degree or two off our
potential afternoon highs as well. There is enough ridge building
by Monday to allow the SW flow to bring some moisture back into
our mountains. However, forcing is quite limited and low levels
still dry so will keep the PoP`s just over the high country. BT

.LONG TERM...valid for Tue...Wed...Thu...Fri...Sat...

Tuesday, low-level flow becomes southerly bringing dry air over
southwestern Montana as an upper-level ridge begins to slide
eastward toward the Dakotas. Anticipate low to mid 90s with light
winds and no precip. Wed/Thurs a system approaches from the
southwest bringing at least a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Frontal passage before the weekend may cool temps
down into the low 80s, however beyond Thursday things really
become uncertain. Longwave pattern shows a trough off the Pacific
Coast slowly pushing eastward by the end of the week. The timing
of this trough and various impulses ahead of it have been handled
poorly by the models. Models have trended toward a drier solution
on Sat/Sun so have backed off the PoPs for that period, but
significant changes to this period will continue to be possible
for the next few days as guidance gets a better handle of the
situation. Walsh

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions anticipated through the period with scattered
cloud decks near 12kft. Surface winds will become gusty from the
W over KLVM this afternoon with gusts above 20 kts possible. Walsh

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 059/086 056/088 059/093 061/093 060/089 059/085 055/080
    00/H    00/H    01/U    12/T    22/T    22/T    11/B
LVM 051/087 049/089 051/093 053/090 052/086 051/082 046/078
    01/H    10/H    01/U    12/T    23/T    32/T    12/T
HDN 054/088 054/091 056/095 060/095 059/092 058/088 053/083
    00/H    00/H    01/U    12/T    22/T    22/T    11/B
MLS 058/090 058/090 061/096 065/096 063/093 061/089 056/083
    00/B    00/U    01/U    11/U    22/T    22/T    11/B
4BQ 056/090 058/090 059/093 063/093 061/092 060/088 056/085
    00/U    00/U    01/U    11/U    12/T    22/T    11/B
BHK 053/090 055/086 057/089 060/090 060/090 058/086 054/083
    00/U    00/U    01/U    11/N    12/T    22/T    11/B
SHR 052/089 052/090 054/092 056/093 055/090 055/086 051/083
    00/H    00/U    01/U    12/T    22/T    22/T    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings



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