Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 290943
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
343 AM MDT Thu Jun 29 2017

.SHORT TERM...valid for Tdy and Fri...

Shortwave swinging across southwestern Montana today with this
feature filling as it moves southeastward into Wyoming. Overall
heights are rising slightly today as the upper low over Canada
which had brought the period of unsettled weather begins shifting
away from the region. Will be plenty of cloud cover today with
upslopish flow so expect a real cool day with some areas staying
below 70 degrees. Precipitation is going to favor two areas.
Southeast Montana will have showers early this morning but they
will be departing by midday. The mountains and adjacent foothills
will see the best instability which will combine with orographic
flow to generate more persistent shower activity. Elsewhere the
HRRR indicates just airmass activity so do not see the support for
significant thunderstorm activity today.

Tonight begins a drying trend as an upper level ridge builds over
the Pacific Northwest and northwest flow aloft over Montana pushes
moisture into southern Wyoming. With heights building faster west
of the Continental Divide on Friday it causes surface pressures to
be higher over western Montana and some minor surface troffing
over north central Montana. This yields a shift to a slight
downslope flow and yields a quick jump of 10 to 15 degrees warmer
for Friday with no precipitation expected. borsum
.LONG TERM...valid for Sat...Sun...Mon...Tue...Wed...

The theme of the extended period will be warm and mostly dry,
especially as we near the beginning of next week. Temperatures
will be above normal with below normal chances for rain.

The mid-level flow will be fairly zonal across Montana at the
beginning of the weekend with temperatures in the mid to upper
80s. A weak disturbance embedded in this flow will kick off a
chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday
afternoon. A ridge of high pressure begins to build across the
Western United States Monday through Wednesday. Currently have
temperatures in the lower 90s through the middle of next week
along with very low chances for rain. With much of the area seeing
minimal rainfall so far this summer, we could see an uptick in
fire weather concerns across the region during/around Independence
Day.


&&

.AVIATION...

Scattered showers will develop this afternoon after 18z across
the region. Can`t rule out an isolated rumble of thunder at KBIL,
KLVM, and KSHR from 21-00z. Mountain obscurations are expected at
times this afternoon. VFR conditions should prevail through the
showers but can`t rule out a very brief period of small hail,
gusty winds, and MVFR conditions in the stronger showers. Winds
will likely be gusty at all terminals and from the northwest
around 15 to 20kts before lessening after sunset. Dobbs
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 069 053/080 056/087 060/088 060/093 061/092 061/090
    4/T 30/U    00/U    11/B    10/U    10/U    10/U
LVM 064 044/078 047/083 051/085 051/087 053/087 051/085
    4/T 30/U    01/U    21/B    10/U    11/U    00/U
HDN 072 052/081 052/089 058/090 059/095 061/094 060/092
    3/T 30/U    00/U    11/B    10/U    10/U    10/U
MLS 078 054/080 055/089 061/090 062/094 065/095 063/093
    3/T 20/U    00/U    12/T    10/U    10/U    10/U
4BQ 075 053/077 052/087 058/088 059/091 062/093 061/091
    4/T 30/U    00/U    02/T    20/U    01/U    10/U
BHK 077 053/074 050/085 055/086 056/089 060/092 059/090
    3/T 30/B    00/U    01/B    21/U    21/U    10/U
SHR 067 050/075 049/083 053/085 053/087 055/089 055/086
    4/T 40/U    01/U    12/T    20/U    11/U    10/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings



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