Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 312117
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
317 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR FRI AND SAT...

A WEAK FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS HAS ALLOWED A FEW SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS OUR WESTERN AND NORTHERN
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. MOVEMENT IS VERY SLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST.
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND SHEAR IS VERY WEAK SO ACTIVITY HAS BEEN
WEAK AND PULSING IN NATURE. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH THE ACTIVITY QUICKLY
DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BULK OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE
LOOKS TO STAY ACROSS IDAHO AND WESTERN MONTANA. HOWEVER...THE
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS A BIT FURTHER EAST LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND
THIS WILL HELP TO BRING THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE A BIT FURTHER EAST.
AS A RESULT...A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCE WILL EXIST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...BUT STILL MAINLY BE ALONG AND WEST OF A ROUNDUP-
BILLINGS- SHERIDAN LINE. DYNAMICS LOOK WEAK SO ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE MORE OF A TYPICAL SUMMER BRIEF THUNDERSTORM. AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...

NEAR-TYPICAL EARLY-AUGUST WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM
WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKING TO BE
MON INTO TUE. THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER 48 IS STILL ON
TRACK TO SLOWLY DE-AMPLIFY HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND THAT
WILL ALLOW A FEW SHORTWAVE IMPULSES CRESTING THE BROADENING 500-MB
RIDGE AXIS TO CROSS THE REGION SUN THROUGH TUE. THE 12 UTC GFS AND
ECMWF STILL CONCUR THAT ONE WAVE IN PARTICULAR SET TO ARRIVE EARLY
NEXT WEEK /MON NIGHT INTO TUE IN THIS MODEL CYCLE/ WILL BRING WITH
IT A HEALTHY MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME. WE ARE THUS CARRYING HIGHER
POPS IN THE FORECAST DURING THAT TIME FRAME...AND LOWER POPS AFTER
THAT ON WED AND THU WHEN FLOW ALOFT TURNS MORE NORTHWESTERLY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
FOR EARLY AUGUST...THOUGH PERHAPS COOLER-THAN-ADVERTISED ON TUE IF
CLOUD COVER ENDS UP BEING THICK. SCHULTZ

&&

.AVIATION...

ISOLATED AND HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND AN ATTENDANT
POSSIBILITY OF LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS TO 40 KT WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER...THAT ACTIVITY WILL DIE OFF BY
06 UTC ONCE THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE COOLS AND STABILIZES. VFR WEATHER
WILL OTHERWISE PREVAIL INTO FRIDAY. SCHULTZ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 061/092 061/092 063/092 063/087 063/085 060/089 061/090
    21/B    12/T    22/T    22/T    33/T    31/U    11/U
LVM 055/090 055/090 055/090 055/085 055/084 052/088 053/089
    22/T    23/T    33/T    33/T    33/T    31/B    11/U
HDN 058/094 058/094 060/094 061/089 063/086 057/090 058/091
    21/B    11/U    22/T    22/T    33/T    32/T    11/U
MLS 062/093 063/094 065/095 065/090 065/085 059/087 061/090
    21/U    01/U    12/T    22/T    33/T    32/T    11/U
4BQ 059/092 059/093 061/095 063/090 064/081 057/086 059/089
    12/T    01/U    12/T    22/T    44/T    32/T    21/U
BHK 058/090 058/090 059/092 060/088 061/081 054/083 055/087
    22/T    11/U    12/T    22/T    33/T    32/T    21/U
SHR 055/090 055/090 058/093 058/086 059/078 053/086 054/087
    22/T    12/T    22/T    23/T    55/T    52/T    21/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS


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