Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 091608
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
908 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...

MILD CONDITIONS THIS MORNING ARE ON TRACK WITH THE FORECAST. GUSTY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE AROUND LIVINGSTON...BUT STILL LOOKS TO STAY
UNDER ANY ADVISORY CRITERIA. GUSTS TO UP TO 55 MPH CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE. REIMER

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...

A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE JUST TO
OUR WEST TODAY RESULTING IN A NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE FLOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA AND
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. THIS DISTURBANCE MAY CLIP FALLON
COUNTY DURING THE DAY SO WE WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER FOR THE BAKER AREA.

LEE-SIDE TROUGHING WILL KEEP A BRISK WESTERLY WIND GOING ACROSS
THE WESTERN ZONES OF OUR CWA TODAY. TROUGHING STRENGTHENS FOR A
TIME TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND COULD BRING US CLOSE TO
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS IN OUR GAP LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...GRADIENT
ORIENTATION IS NOT BEST FOR GAP FLOW SO WILL KEEP FORECAST JUST
BELOW OUR ADVISORY CRITERIA AT LIVINGSTON AND NYE. WE WOULD EXPECT
SOME PERIOD OF FAIRLY  STRONG WINDS AT BIG TIMBER AND HARLOWTON
IN THIS PATTERN AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A WEAK BACK DOORISH
COLD FRONT THAT SLIDES INTO OUR EASTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY
EVENING...BUT WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH MORE THAN SOMEWHAT COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND A WIND SHIFT FOR THE EAST. BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS TRENDING MORE UNSETTLED LATER IN THE PERIOD
WITH POOR MODEL AGREEMENT BEGINNING ON SAT. UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL
BE ANCHORED W OF THE AREA ON THU AND WILL SLIDE OVER THE REGION ON
FRI. A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SAT ON THE ECMWF.
THE GFS SHOWS THE SAME WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE W ON SAT AND NOT
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA UNTIL SAT NIGHT. THE FLOW ALOFT THEN
BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC TRANSITIONING TO NW FOR SUN THROUGH TUE.

THU CONTINUED TO LOOK DRY AND VERY WARM WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES
TOPPING OUT AT 8 TO 10 DEGREES C...SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED ON
MON. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH
COOLER CONDITIONS IN THE FAR EASTERN ZONES. THE RECORD HIGH FOR
KBIL ON THU IS 68 SO WHILE IT WILL BE WARM...RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED. THE MODELS TRY TO NUDGE A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT INTO E MT THU NIGHT AND FRI WITH SOME MOISTURE. THE
MODELS PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED LIGHT QPF THU NIGHT WITH A MORE
ORGANIZED BAND OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT ON FRI. KEPT POPS
LOW FOR BOTH PERIODS FOR NOW AS GFS WAS LIGHTER WITH FRI QPF THAN
ECMWF. FRI WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 30S
NORTHEAST TO THE 50S W.

MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES COME INTO PLAY FOR THE SHORTWAVE AND IT/S
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT BEGINNING SAT. THE GFS WAS DRY SAT WHILE THE
ECMWF PRODUCED PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW...HAVE BLANKETED THE AREA
WITH LOW POPS. THE TIMING ISSUES AFFECTED SAT NIGHT AS WELL. GIVEN
QPF PROGS...HAD CHANCE POPS E OF KBIL AND SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE.
PRECIPITATION LINGERED OVER THE E ON SUN ON THE GFS SO KEPT
LINGERING LOW POPS IN THIS AREA. USED A BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES ON
SAT. MODELS WERE IN BETTER AGREEMENT FOR SUN TEMPERATURES. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP BEHIND THE SYSTEM. DESPITE MODEL
DIFFERENCES...DID NOT SEE ANY HIGH IMPACT PRECIPITATION ISSUES FOR
THE WEEKEND. UNSETTLED NW FLOW AND INCREASING PACIFIC MOISTURE
WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA SUN NIGHT
THROUGH TUE. HAD TO USE A BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES AS THE MODELS
WERE NOT IN SYNC WITH THEIR TEMPERATURE PROFILES. ARTHUR
&&

.AVIATION...


VFR WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. GUSTY WINDS
AROUND KLVM WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. SOME LLWS IS POSSIBLE
FOR THE REST OF THE TERMINALS. REIMER


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 063 037/065 037/062 036/052 035/055 035/052 036/057
    0/U 00/N    01/B    11/E    12/W    21/N    22/W
LVM 058 036/058 035/054 036/052 039/052 033/047 036/051
    0/N 00/N    01/N    11/N    12/W    32/W    22/W
HDN 064 030/064 030/061 032/050 030/053 031/051 030/055
    0/U 00/U    00/B    21/E    12/W    22/W    22/W
MLS 055 031/055 029/052 030/043 029/048 032/048 033/052
    0/B 00/U    01/B    22/W    22/W    32/W    12/W
4BQ 055 030/060 029/057 030/047 027/049 029/048 030/052
    0/B 00/U    01/B    22/W    22/W    32/W    22/W
BHK 047 029/050 026/045 027/037 023/041 029/044 029/047
    0/E 00/U    01/E    21/E    22/J    32/W    12/W
SHR 058 029/060 028/056 030/050 029/051 028/047 028/052
    0/U 00/U    01/B    11/B    12/W    22/W    22/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS


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