Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS65 KBYZ 270324
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
924 PM MDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...
AIRMASS QUICKLY STABILIZING WITH DIURNAL COOLING AND SHOWER THREAT
HAS ENDED FOR THE MOUNTAINS. UPDATED FORECAST TO REMOVE POPS.
BORSUM

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...

THE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS PRETTY QUIET THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
AN UPPER LOW WAS CURRENTLY SITTING OVER EASTERN NEVADA AT THE
MOMENT WITH A JET STREAK OVER SOUTHWEST WYOMING ON THE FRONT SIDE
OF A TROUGH THE LOW WAS HOUSED IN. THE JET WILL WORK NORTHEAST
THIS EVENING AND COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH ASCENT FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE BEING DIRECTED
EASTWARD.

THE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT EAST WEDNESDAY AND STAY TO THE SOUTH
WITH WESTERLY FLOW OVER MONTANA. DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL PROVIDE FOR
WARMER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS MID LEVEL WESTERLY
FLOW INCREASES. A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT ACROSS NORTHERN
MONTANA THURSDAY NIGHT AND ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO PUSH INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED WITH THE FRONT SO
KEPT THE FORECAST DRY AS THE STRONGEST ASCENT WILL STAY NORTH. TWH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

OVERALL FORECAST PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST HAS CHANGED
VERY LITTLE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS. ONE RELATIVELY NEW
FEATURE IS A SHORTWAVE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE RIDGE ACROSS
MT ON FRI. BECAUSE THIS FEATURE IS NEW...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP POPS
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH HAD THEM OVER AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS. DID LOWER TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BASED ON EXPECTED
MIXING. MODELS STILL BROUGHT A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA IN THE
FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT TIME FRAME...AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SW
AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH. MODELS WERE SIMILAR IN SWINGING
THE TROUGH INTO THE AREA ON SUN. QPF PATTERNS WERE ALSO SIMILAR...EXCEPT
FOR SUN WHEN THE ECMWF HITS THE SE WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION AND THE GFS REMAINS MOSTLY DRY. HAVE GONE WITH A
CONSALL APPROACH TO THIS PERIOD. SAT STILL LOOKED WARM IN THE
80S...WHILE SUN WILL BE COOLER IN THE 70S. TROUGHINESS/CYCLONIC
FLOW WILL KEEP COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA ON MON
WHEN TEMPERATURES MAY HOLD IN THE 60S. MODELS THEN DIVERGED WITH
THE PATTERN ON TUE WITH THE GFS HOLDING BACK SOME TROUGHINESS OVER
THE AREA AND THE ECMWF GOING WITH A FLAT DRY NW FLOW. DID NOT
CHANGE TUE DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES. ARTHUR
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY BE A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS NORTHEASTWARD
TO KSHR AND K4BQ BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THOUGH WITH SOME POTENTIAL
FOR LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND MVFR CONDITIONS. SCHULTZ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 054/083 057/087 059/082 059/085 057/072 051/068 050/074
    00/U    00/U    01/U    12/T    32/T    22/T    21/U
LVM 048/082 050/086 051/083 052/083 051/070 045/066 044/074
    00/U    10/U    11/U    13/T    33/T    32/T    21/U
HDN 053/083 056/088 057/084 058/087 057/074 052/071 050/077
    00/U    10/U    01/U    11/U    32/T    22/T    21/U
MLS 055/084 059/087 060/084 060/088 058/076 054/071 053/075
    00/U    10/U    01/U    11/U    22/T    22/T    21/U
4BQ 054/083 057/087 058/085 060/089 058/078 053/072 051/078
    12/T    10/U    01/B    11/U    22/T    22/T    21/U
BHK 050/081 055/083 056/082 057/085 056/076 051/069 050/074
    01/U    10/U    01/U    11/U    22/T    22/T    21/U
SHR 050/080 053/087 053/084 055/087 054/075 049/070 047/076
    12/T    20/U    01/B    11/U    23/T    32/T    21/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.