Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 212144
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
344 PM MDT Mon Aug 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...valid for Tue and Wed...

Clear skies continue tonight with ridging firmly entrenched across
the northern Rockies. Lows will fall into the low to mid 50s
tonight. Warming trend expected through Wednesday as the ridge
pushes eastward ahead of the next approaching cold front. Temps
will make it into the low 90s by Wednesday with some isolated
thunderstorms possible in the mountains during the afternoon
hours. Walsh

.LONG TERM...valid for Thu...Fri...Sat...Sun...Mon...

On Thursday, ridge axis slides eastward, upper cyclonic flow moves
overhead, and a shortwave trough and surface cool front should
approach the region. These features should create an environment
favorable for scattered showers and thunderstorms over southern
Montana and north central Wyoming beginning Thursday afternoon.
The showers/storms can linger into Thursday night. GFS and ECMWF
differ a little on the timing of the trough and showers/storms
with the GFS slower and the ECMWF faster. For now took a
compromise and have slight chance PoPs for central/eastern zones
(with higher PoPs over western zones) Thursday afternoon. On
Friday, the shortwave trough axis and surface trough should be
over southeast MT...which should help to continue the chance of
showers/storms there. In terms of thunderstorm intensity in SE MT
Friday, MUCAPE is decent, around 1000 J/kg, but 0-6 km shear is
rather low...so at the moment am not expecting severe weather.
Elsewhere...sinking air behind the shortwave trough axis should
yield a largely dry Friday for western and central zones.

Upper ridge builds in for Saturday through Monday. This pattern
should yield dry and seasonally warm conditions.

High temperatures on Thursday should be the warmest of the
extended, ranging from the middle 80s to lower 90s ahead of the
cool front. Highs then should generally be in the 80s Friday
through Monday. RMS

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR will prevail tonight. Areas of smoke will be around west and
south of KBIL. RMS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 056/089 060/093 062/090 060/083 057/086 057/087 058/088
    00/U    00/U    02/T    21/B    10/U    00/U    00/U
LVM 049/088 050/092 053/085 051/083 047/086 047/087 048/088
    00/U    01/U    13/T    31/B    10/U    00/U    00/U
HDN 055/091 056/095 059/093 059/085 055/088 055/089 056/090
    00/U    00/U    02/T    21/B    00/U    00/U    00/U
MLS 055/088 058/094 061/093 064/086 056/087 057/088 056/089
    00/U    00/U    01/U    22/W    00/U    00/U    00/U
4BQ 054/088 056/093 058/091 060/087 055/086 056/088 055/088
    00/U    00/U    12/T    32/T    20/U    00/U    00/U
BHK 049/084 054/089 055/087 059/083 053/083 053/084 053/085
    00/U    00/U    01/U    24/T    11/U    00/U    00/U
SHR 051/086 053/091 056/089 056/083 051/085 052/086 051/086
    00/U    01/U    12/T    22/T    30/U    00/U    00/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings


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