Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 280909
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
309 AM MDT Fri Apr 28 2017

.SHORT TERM...valid for Tdy and Sat...

Rain continues over much of the region, with snow in foothills
and mountains, as spring storm system persists over the region.

Inverted sfc trof that has become focus of precip will continue
to shift slowly southwestward...bringing increasing upslope flow
to Beartooth and Red Lodge foothills this morning and through much
of the day. Snow started accumulating in Red Lodge around 1AM and
expect another few inches through the morning. Similar conditions
are expected in Beartooth foothills as upslope flow turns more
northeasterly. Have increased snow accumulations in those areas,
and issues a Winter Weather Advisory. Snow in higher terrain and
rain in lower elevations across the west are expected to continue
through the day, tapering off from east to west through the late
afternoon and evening.

The upper low will dive further south on Saturday...allowing some
ridging to develop into the area. However, a shortwave radiating
off upper low over northern British Columbia will slide across the
northern edge of the high into the region Saturday afternoon and
evening. Best chances for additional precip will be for snow over
high terrain, with scattered rain showers over the plains, mainly
west of Billings.

As for temps...40s will persist across the west, with low 50s in
the east. temps will push back into the 50s and around 60 in
some eastern locations on Saturday. AAG


.LONG TERM...valid for Sun...Mon...Tue...Wed...Thu...

Sunday will start out dry, then give way to increasing shower
chances from the west in the afternoon and evening as the next
Pacific shortwave moves across the northern Rockies. Sunday will
be a warmer day with temps back to near or above 60F, but a cold
front will bring cooler temps and some wind by Sunday night.

An unstable northwest flow with additional shortwave energy will
bring cooler/showery/breezy conditions Monday and Tuesday. Temps
at lower elevations should stay warm enough to keep precip mostly
rain not snow (though some graupel or ice pellets are possible),
but mountains will see additional snowfall. Unstable NW flow will
favor the Bighorns most, where several inches of snow are a good
bet. Building heights from the west should bring drying conditions
by Tuesday night, though a few showers may linger near the
Dakotas border into Wednesday.

Confidence is growing that we will see a period of ridging aloft
and dry/warmer conditions Wednesday and Thursday and perhaps
Friday. Expect high temps into 60s Wednesday and 70s Thursday.
There is model disagreement regarding when the ridge will break
down. The operational GFS is fast to bring in a Pacific shortwave
by Thursday night, but the ECMWF keeps ridging in place thru
Friday, a scenario that many GEFS members support. For now will
keep our cwa dry thru Thursday night. Would expect increasing
chances of showers in our west by Friday, and cooling temps across
the region for next weekend.

JKL
&&

.AVIATION...

A slow-moving weather system will continue to bring occasional
rain and snow west of MLS-Ekalaka today. Periods of MVFR to local
IFR/LIFR can be expected at LVM/BIL/SHR. Mountains will remain
obscured for much of the day. Precipitation will taper off late
this afternoon and evening. VFR conditions will prevail at eastern
sites MLS and BHK. VFR should prevail across the forecast area by
tonight. JKL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 047 035/056 037/061 041/057 039/055 038/064 044/072
    8/O 32/R    22/W    53/W    35/W    31/B    00/B
LVM 044 026/054 033/058 035/055 034/055 034/063 039/068
    6/O 32/O    24/W    43/W    34/W    31/B    11/U
HDN 051 034/057 034/063 039/058 039/058 036/064 041/072
    7/O 22/R    22/W    53/W    34/W    31/B    01/B
MLS 055 035/060 035/063 042/058 039/058 037/064 043/071
    2/O 11/B    01/B    33/W    13/W    21/B    00/B
4BQ 051 031/057 031/062 040/057 037/055 036/061 040/069
    3/O 11/B    01/U    53/W    23/W    32/W    00/B
BHK 053 029/059 030/061 037/056 035/055 034/059 037/064
    0/B 01/B    00/U    43/W    13/W    22/W    00/B
SHR 040 028/049 029/056 036/053 036/051 034/060 037/069
    9/O 32/R    11/B    53/W    35/W    31/B    00/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Winter Storm Warning in effect until midnight MDT tonight FOR
      ZONE 38.
     Winter Weather Advisory in effect until midnight MDT tonight
      FOR ZONES 56-66.
WY...Winter Storm Warning in effect until midnight MDT tonight FOR
      ZONES 98-99.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings



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