Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 261635
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
935 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...

OVER RUNNING SNOW CONTINUES OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL FROM HARLOWTON TO BILLINGS
TO CROW AGENCY AT THIS TIME. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE SNOW
TAPERING OFF OVER WESTERN ZONES LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON...AND LIVINGSTON HAS SEEN SNOW TAPER OFF IN THE PAST
HOUR. AS A RESULT PLAN TO END WESTERN ADVISORIES ON TIME AT NOON
FOR WESTERN VALLEYS. MAY HAVE TO EXTEND WHEATLAND COUNTY BUT WILL
GIVE IT AN HOUR OR TWO TO SEE HOW TRENDS ARE THERE. BASED ON THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS EXTENDED THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. STILL SOME STRONG
MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE 700-500MB RANGE THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
CREATE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ISSUES IN THE HIGH COUNTRY INTO
THIS EVENING. ALSO PUSHED THE WARNING OUT UNTIL 6PM FOR THE
BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS. EXPECT SNOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE
DAY THERE BUT WILL SEE IT LIGHTEN UP THIS AFTERNOON WITH 2 TO 3
INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED THESE AREAS. NO CHANGES TO
THE REST OF THE WINTER HIGHLITES. WILL UPDATE AGAIN AROUND NOON TO
END THOSE WESTERN ADVISORIES. TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH INTO THE
LOWER 40S WEST LATE IN THE DAY WITH LOW TO MID 30S FOR THE CENTRAL
ZONES INCLUDING BILLINGS. EASTERN AREAS WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW
FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON.

TRAVEL IMPACTS...LOOKING AT THE METRO MODEL EXPECT ROADS ACROSS
THE AREA TO MELT OFF THIS AFTERNOON WITH ROAD SURFACE TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40 DEGREE RANGE BY 2 PM. WITH WARM ADVECTION
AND WESTERLY WINDS INCREASING THIS EVENING AREAS FROM BILLINGS
WEST MAY SEE ROADS STAY WET TONIGHT AS WELL OUTSIDE OF THE
ELEVATED LOCATIONS SUCH AS BOZEMAN HILL. FOR AREAS EAST OF
BILLINGS COLD AIR WILL HOLD ON LONGER AND ROADS LOOK TO RE-FREEZE
THIS EVENING MAKING DIFFICULT TRAVEL TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. THERE MAY ALSO BE A FEW POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW MORNING FROM BILLINGS EAST AS WARM AIR ALOFT PUSHES
OVER THE COLD SURFACE LAYER...BUT GIVEN EXPECTED ROAD CONDITIONS
DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE NEED FOR ADDITIONAL WINTER HIGHLITES AT
THIS TIME.

STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT OVER WESTERN
FOOTHILLS LOCATIONS FROM LIVINGSTON AND NYE. ANTICIPATE THE NEED
FOR AN ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS AND WILL LIKELY GO ISSUE WITH THE
UPDATE AT NOON ONCE WINTER HIGHLITES ARE CANCELLED. COULD BE SOME
ISSUES AT LEAST INITIALLY WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW INCLUDING
ALONG I-90 AROUND LIVINGSTON. CHAMBERS

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND THU...

LIMITED CHANGES TO INHERITED SHORT TERM FORECAST THIS MORNING.
HIGHLIGHTS IN PLACE TO COVER SNOW AND SLICK DRIVING CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THE MORNING.

SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES...AND SHOULD
SHIFT NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...AS WARM ADVECTION SHALLOWS OUT
THE COLD LOW LEVEL AIR. APPEARS THAT THERE SHOULD BE A TRANSITION
TO MIXED PRECIP WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING...WITH SOME
FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL FROM BILLINGS EAST. WARM AIR ADVECTION AT
THE SFC AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ADDING DOWNSLOPE FLOW INTO THE REGION
WILL DRIVE HIGH TEMPS UPWARD DESPITE SNOW COVER. TEMPS WILL PUSH
WELL INTO THE 40S WEST AND CENTRAL...WITH ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS
EXPECTED OVER THE EAST.

WIND WILL BE A CONCERN AGAIN IN THE GAP AREAS AS WELL AS THE
FOOTHILLS REGIONS. THIS PERIOD OF WIND WILL BEGIN LATE THIS
EVENING AS THE COLD AIR RETREATS EASTWARD...AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH FEEL CONFIDENT IN NEED FOR
HIGHLIGHT FOR THIS PERIOD...AM CONCERNED THAT WILL MUDDY THE
WATERS WITH CURRENT HIGHLIGHTS. ADDITIONALLY...WITH QUANTITY OF
SNOW IN THESE HIGH WIND PRONE AREAS...WE COULD EASILY BE LOOKING
AT EXTENDING THE WINTER STORM WARNING...OR TRANSITIONING INTO THE
BLIZZARD WARNING DUE TO SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW.

AAG

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

FRIDAY WILL BE BREEZY AND MILD ACROSS THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF AN
ARCTIC FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES COULD REACH 50 IN A FEW AREAS AS A COUPLE OF DAYS
ABOVE FREEZING SHOULD PUT A DENT IN REGIONAL SNOW COVER AND WIND
AIDS THE PROCESS. COULD BE ONGOING GAP FLOW WINDS THROUGH MOST OF
THE DAY THOUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS THE INSTABILITY
GENERATED BY THE WARM TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW THAT TO SLACKEN.

MODELS SHOW THE ARCTIC COMES IN TWO PIECES WITH A REINFORCING SHOT
ARRIVING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOWFALL WANTS TO
ARRIVE BEHIND THIS SECOND SURGE SATURDAY NIGHT SO DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
BE 20 DEGREES COLDER THAN FRIDAY AND MAINLY IN THE 30S.

SUNDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY AND MODELS SHOW DEEPEST MOISTURE
DOES SHIFT SOUTH OF THE AREA AS THE COLD AIRMASS DEEPENS. THIS
WILL LIMIT THE SNOWFALL AND SUNDAY LOOKS MOSTLY DRY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ANOTHER 20 DEGREES COLDER AND MOST AREAS WILL
ONLY SEE THE SINGLE DIGITS OR TEENS. HOW COLD SUNDAY MORNING GETS
IS STILL UNSURE BECAUSE OF CLOUD COVER BUT SUSPECT MONDAY MORNING
TEMPERATURES COULD BE CLOSER TO ZERO IN MANY AREAS. ONE EXCEPTION
IS JUDITH GAP WHERE THE CLOUDS SHOULD RECEDE FAST ENOUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT TO DRIVE TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW ZERO.

COLD RETREATS ON MONDAY AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY IN
ADVANCE OF SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. MOISTURE FROM
THIS TROUGH COULD REACH THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BUT IT
LOOKS DISORGANIZED AND MAY ONLY YIELD SHOWERS AND LITTLE MOISTURE.
A WELL MIXED AIRMASS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 35 TO 45 DEGREE
RANGE. BORSUM
&&

.AVIATION...

IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION INTO
THE AFTERNOON...THEN BEGIN TO SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM W TO E. KMLS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN LIFR TO IFR THROUGH TONIGHT. WSW SURFACE WINDS
WILL INCREASE OVER KLVM AFTER 06Z TONIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 50 TO 55
KT EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THU MORNING. THESE WINDS WILL
CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WITH LOCALIZED MVFR TO IFR
VISIBILITIES. ARTHUR
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 034 030/048 036/049 021/027 000/011 000/031 022/037
    +/S 31/B    00/B    24/J    42/J    11/B    12/W
LVM 040 037/049 039/049 029/032 005/018 010/036 027/037
    +/O 31/N    11/N    35/J    42/J    21/N    12/W
HDN 034 023/047 032/050 018/030 000/014 901/031 018/039
    +/S 41/B    00/B    12/J    32/J    11/B    12/W
MLS 029 021/043 030/046 014/020 903/010 903/026 015/033
    9/S 73/W    11/B    13/J    31/B    11/B    12/W
4BQ 032 020/047 031/050 019/030 003/014 001/033 020/038
    +/S 61/E    11/B    12/J    32/J    11/B    11/B
BHK 028 016/037 028/043 016/021 902/009 902/025 014/032
    8/S 63/W    11/B    13/J    31/B    11/B    11/N
SHR 034 023/048 033/050 024/035 006/018 005/037 021/039
    +/S 21/B    00/B    02/J    32/J    11/B    12/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR
      ZONES 28-40-41-63>65.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING
      FOR ZONES 29>31-34-35-38-42-57-58.
     WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING
      FOR ZONES 39-56-66>68.
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING
      FOR ZONE 99.
     WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING
      FOR ZONE 98.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS


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