059
FXUS65 KBYZ 140204
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
804 PM MDT Sun Jul 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm (highs in 90s) and dry into Monday.

- Much cooler with a good chance of widespread precipitation
  Monday night through Wednesday.

- Conditions become dry with highs near normal (mid 80s to low
  90s) by the end of the week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Satellite imagery shows a dry zonal flow over the region.
Strongest forcing and greatest potential for convection tonight
will ride along the Canada/MT border, but looking to our west
there is an area of weak t-storms in central ID northeast of Sun
Valley. Local radar shows a couple weak cells trying to develop
over the Beartooths. It appears there is at least potential for
isolated showers and weak t-storms over our southwest mountains
between now and midnight or so. Otherwise, it will be a dry and
mild night with low temps in the 50s and 60s. Monday will be pre-
frontal and warmer with temps well into the 90s. Canadian front`s
arrival will help to trigger late day t-storms capable of
producing gusty winds. One thing to watch is tonight`s convection
along the Canadian border and if it results in a push of N-NE
winds into southeast MT faster than most models suggest. As it
stands, the GFS continues to show NE winds arriving before the
other models, and this may be correct given what is happening to
our north. This wind shift will impact pre-frontal winds/temps/RHs
tomorrow, as well as convective initiation. JKL

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Rest of Today through Tuesday Night...

Temperatures, for better or worse, have behaved as expected and
climbed into the low 90s this afternoon as upper ridging stays
over the region. Satellite imagery shows some Convective
Initiation occurring over Yellowstone and subtly getting into the
Beartooths, showcasing the potential for a storm or two to still
occur over the mountains later this afternoon and evening.

Monday will see slightly warmer temperatures, but with a bit more
moisture providing higher CAPE across the area, bringing about
isolated severe storm potential, especially in the far southeast,
and along the Beartooth Foothills through Billings. The main
threat associated with these storms will be gusts up to 60 mph
due to a lack of shear. Timing for the cold front is more confined
to the late afternoon and evening, quickly ushering in colder
temperatures and rain that will occur through the mid-week.
Heaviest rain won`t begin until Tuesday afternoon and persist into
the night. Vertz

Wednesday through Sunday...

As the system from Tuesday continues to move through the region,
Wednesday will remain cool with an increased chance of
precipitation. Models disagree on how much moisture will remain
over the region Wednesday, with anywhere from near normal (0.8")
to 150% of normal (1.2"), leading to model spreads between a
couple tenths of an inch to nearly 1 inch of precip. The second
option is more typical of a spring system than mid-July, but there
remains a 10-20% chance for these higher values east of Billings.
Otherwise, the more likely solution is for 0.1-0.3" where showers
develop, with a few pockets of higher amounts under the stronger
showers. While thunderstorms will be possible, conditions are not
favorable for any strong storms to develop.

Models have trended towards the system exiting late
Wednesday/early Thursday morning, with another wave remaining
north of the region along the Canadian border. This will keep
Thursday drier and allow temperatures to begin to warm. Beyond
Thursday, there is more uncertainty as to how the pattern will
resolve, although there is good agreement for downsloping
conditions warming temperatures back to near seasonal values.

High temperatures Wendesday will be in the 60s to near 70. Then,
temperatures are expected to warm each day, reaching near normal
(mid 80s to low 90s) by the weekend. Archer

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail through Monday afternoon. After 3 PM
Monday, scattered (30-60%) showers and thunderstorms will move
across the region. Gusty and erratic winds can be expected around
these thunderstorms. Archer/Torgerson

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 065/097 060/066 055/064 050/078 056/083 060/086 061/091
    02/T    47/T    86/T    11/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
LVM 056/094 053/067 048/068 045/081 049/086 052/087 053/090
    01/U    58/T    85/T    11/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
HDN 060/097 060/068 054/065 047/079 053/084 058/087 057/092
    02/T    56/T    86/T    21/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
MLS 064/098 060/068 053/063 050/076 055/082 059/086 060/091
    00/U    46/T    87/T    21/U    11/U    11/U    11/B
4BQ 064/097 064/072 055/064 051/076 057/081 060/084 061/090
    00/U    45/T    87/T    31/B    21/U    21/B    21/U
BHK 060/096 056/065 048/063 045/073 051/079 054/083 057/088
    00/U    35/T    76/T    31/B    21/U    11/U    11/U
SHR 057/096 058/071 051/067 046/080 052/084 054/086 055/090
    02/T    47/T    87/T    21/U    11/U    11/B    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings