Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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591 FXUS65 KFGZ 060825 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 125 AM MST Mon May 6 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Temperatures will remain cool with dry conditions and breezy afternoons through the rest of the week. Ridging returns over the weekend with warmer temperatures expected. && .DISCUSSION...The low that brought the very strong winds and rain/snow to the region has started to move further to the north and east of the area early this morning. While the center of the low will be a bit more removed from our area, the pressure gradient doesn`t fully relax and today will once again be on the breezy side. While not nearly as strong as they were on Sunday, we can expect wind gusts around 25-35 mph through this afternoon. The low pushes to the north, but it starts to cut off and retrograde. This will allow for some of its energy to rotate through the mid level flow on Tuesday along with the pressure gradient starting to tighten up again, With no moisture left to push through, do not expect any form of showers to develop. However, the winds will become quite gusty and might near Wind Advisory levels, especially across portions of northern and eastern Arizona. Wind gusts in the the 35-45 mph range are possible. Near critical fire weather conditions are also possible across far eastern Arizona on Tuesday. The low further retrogrades and sinks to the south. As the low pushes to the south we should actually see the gradient weaken so expect lighter winds, more typical spring breeziness, as we go through the week. Additionally, this low will keep the cooler air in place across northern Arizona. The low finally starts to break down and push to the east at the end of the week. Again, with limited moisture do not expect any showers to develop, though best chances for a stray, isolated shower would be over the Four Corners region. Ridging returns over the weekend with warming temperatures across the region. && .AVIATION...Monday 06/06Z through Tuesday 07/06Z...Winds will shift to westerly and decrease overnight behind a cold front, though some gusts 20-30 kts will still be possible from 0V7-KSOW eastward. An area of RA/SN northeast of a 0V7-KRQE line with MVFR/IFR conditions will push east of the state line by 07Z, with clearing skies and VFR conditions elsewhere. VFR conditions with west winds 10-20 kts and gusts near 25 kts on Monday. OUTLOOK...Tuesday 07/06Z through Thursday 09/06Z...VFR conditions expected through the outlook period. West to southwest wind 15-25 kts Tuesday afternoon, gusting up to 35 kts mainly north of a KFLG-KSOW line. Northwest wind 10-15 kts gusting near 25 kts Wednesday. A large prescribed fire project could bring some smoke impacts around KFLG beginning Wednesday. && .FIRE WEATHER...Monday and Tuesday...A slight warming trend will occur between today and tomorrow. Minimum RH values will quickly drop, with values ranging from single digits to low 20s each afternoon. Look for west winds 15-25 mph gusting 25-35 mph today, before increasing on Tuesday with gusts 30-40 mph. Near critical to critical fire weather conditions possible, especially on Tuesday in eastern AZ. Wednesday through Friday...Temperatures will drop on Wednesday, but look for a gradual warming trend through the end of the week. Minimum RH values will remain in the single digits-20s range each afternoon, with typical spring-like breezes. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Meola AVIATION...JJ FIRE WEATHER...Konieczny For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff