Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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243 FXUS64 KFWD 091907 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 207 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024 ...New Short Term, Long Term... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Through Friday afternoon/ An active afternoon and evening is taking shape across the region as scattered to numerous storms continue to develop. At 1 pm, surface analysis show a stationary boundary south of I-20 with storms already developing near and north of the boundary. While the 18Z sounding from FWD still shows the cap, a highly unstable environment with very steep lapse rates and efficient lift will result in additional storms through the evening. The overall trend should be an eastward/southward progression of these storms as the stationary boundary slowly pushes southward. Areas across North Texas will have the threat for severe storms through 7 pm, with the threat shifting to Central Texas from 6 pm through 9-10 pm. Very large hail and damaging winds continue to be the main concerns, however the tornado threat is still present near and south of the surface boundary. Most of the activity should be east and south of our area before midnight as the boundary pushes southward. The rest of the night should be quiet with clouds slowly clearing for most locations. Areas across the far southern Central Texas may see a period of low clouds and patchy fog overnight, but should clear by early Friday morning. A weak shortwave will move through our region Friday afternoon into the evening and may interact with some leftover moisture across Central Texas. This may result in a few showers and storms across the far western Central Texas but coverage should stay below 20%. There could be enough instability for a few strong storms, but at this time the severe potential remains low. Otherwise, Friday`s temperatures will be slightly cooler with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Sanchez && .LONG TERM... /NEW/ Update: Not much has changed in regards to the extended portion of the forecast. Pleasant weather is expected to start the weekend with afternoon highs primarily in the mid to upper 70s. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will begin across our west and southwest Saturday evening/night increasing in coverage and spreading east during the day Sunday and into Sunday night. The severe potential is low on Sunday, but a few storms could produce some small hail. Thunderstorm chances will continue into Monday primarily along/east of I-35, exiting to the east by Monday night. Heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding will be possible in the Sunday-Monday timeframe, especially across our already water- logged areas in Central Texas and the Brazos Valley where there is a 30-40% chance that rainfall totals exceed 2 inches during this timeframe. We will likely see a break in the rain chances Tuesday- Tuesday night before storm chances, potentially severe, return in the Wednesday-Thursday timeframe. See the discussion below for more details. Langfeld Previous Discussion: /Friday Night Onward/ North winds will drop to 5 to 10 MPH and veer to the northeast Friday night as a surface ridge moves southeast through the Red River Valley. The cooler and drier continental airmass (behind the cold front currently moving slowly through the region) will create low temperatures ranging from the mid 50s along the Red River to the lower 60s across Central Texas. The surface ridge axis will be practically on top of North and Central Texas on Saturday while weak ridging is simultaneously in place aloft. The result will be a nice Saturday with light winds and highs generally in the 75 to 80 degree range. The only minor damper will be thickening mid and high clouds and a slight chance of showers across the far west associated with an upper low situated over the southern Rockies. Clouds and rain chances will continue to increase Saturday night as the upstream low advances east. Showers and thunderstorms will initially be confined to the west and southwest counties, but will spread east/northeast across the rest of the region on Sunday as the upper low draws near. With the surface front becoming stationary along the Gulf Coast, convection will be elevated in nature, which should mitigate the overall severe weather threat. However, elevated instability may be sufficient at times to support quarter sized hail in a few storms Sunday and Sunday night. Locally heavy rain may also produce flooding in some areas. Rain chances will continue mainly along and east of I-35 on Monday as the upper low moves east through the Southern Plains. Precipitation will end from west to east Monday night as the low exits to the east and subsidence develops in its wake. Dry conditions are then expected Tuesday through Tuesday night, followed by additional chances for thunderstorms on Wednesday as the next upper trough approaches. The surface front will have lifted north by then, immersing all of the forecast area back within the warm sector. The dryline may also come into play, making Wednesday of next week look like our next (after today) significant opportunity severe weather. 30 && .AVIATION... /Issued 120 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024/ /18z TAFs/ Concerns...TSRA and severe weather potential this afternoon. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will continue to develop through this evening and may impact most of the TAF sites. Latest guidance still show the main window for TSRA near DFW Metroplex sites between 20-22Z, but storms may be in the vicinity through 01-02Z. For Waco, the window for TSRA is a little bit later between 0-3Z. Some of these storms will be severe with large hail and damaging winds. Coverage of storms will likely increase this afternoon and evening before they exit our area before midnight. After that, VFR and northerly winds should continue through tomorrow. There is still a medium chance KACT may see a period of MVFR between 08-13Z as today`s front lingers just south of that area. Sanchez && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 62 82 62 78 62 / 20 0 5 5 30 Waco 64 79 62 76 63 / 60 5 10 10 30 Paris 60 79 56 80 60 / 20 0 0 0 10 Denton 59 80 58 78 60 / 20 0 5 5 30 McKinney 60 80 58 78 60 / 20 0 0 0 20 Dallas 64 81 62 79 63 / 20 0 5 5 20 Terrell 62 80 59 78 61 / 30 0 0 0 20 Corsicana 64 83 62 78 64 / 60 0 5 5 20 Temple 64 80 62 77 62 / 60 5 10 10 30 Mineral Wells 58 80 59 75 59 / 20 0 5 10 40 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$