Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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738
FXUS65 KGJT 251722
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service GRAND JUNCTION CO
1122 AM MDT Mon Sep 25 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 333 AM MDT Mon Sep 25 2017

The longwave trough over the southwest U.S. will continue to be
reinforced by dry shortwave troughs falling into it over the next
36 hours. Conditions will remain dry and cool at high pressure an
rising heights and thicknesses will make little progress over the
region. Clouds and showers will continue to rotate around the
south side of the closed low over WY today, and these will affect
the north-facing slopes of the eastern Uinta Mountains, and mid
and hi cloud cover will continue to build back to the west over
the Archuleta county area today.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 333 AM MDT Mon Sep 25 2017

Confidence is a bit higher than 24 hours as models remain fairly
consistent in timing and pattern evolution through the upcoming
week. A Western Rex pattern looks to be well underway by mid-week
with amplified ridging into the Pacific NW over-topping a closed
low over the Desert Southwest. GOES derived imagery is showing a
good moisture source to our south with a decaying tropical system
in the Gulf of California and Gulf of Mexico moisture pooled into
the Mexico highlands. Moisture transport vectors suggest the
Desert SW Low will be drawing some of this water northward across
the 4 Corners region. Therefore an increasing trend of showers
across the southern mountains and valleys by Wednesday looks on
track. The precipitation shield should lift northward through
weeks end as the low is ejected northward by a jet pushing onto
the left coast. If timing holds the weekend is shaping up to be
drier low pressure is finally if only temporarily replaced by
ridging aloft. Temperatures highly dependent on cloud shield and
precipitation this week but guidance suggests near to below
normal. With this system originating in the south it will not be
as cold as the current system with snow levels aoa 10000ft
expected.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1111 AM MDT Mon Sep 25 2017

VFR conditions will prevail at all terminal locations for the
remainder of the day. A few isolated showers may affect locations
north of Vernal. Calm and dry overnight with a dry day again on
Tuesday.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...None.
UT...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...MAC



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