Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 032112
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
312 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHER THAN NORMAL
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS TRAPPED IN THIS RIDGE AND WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT PLENTY OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...INITIALLY FOCUSED OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT DRIFTING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS ADJACENT
VALLEYS IN COLORADO. STORMS THAT FORM OVER SOUTHEAST UT WILL BE
IN MORE OF A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING THIS EVENING AND AGAIN
TOMORROW EVENING. AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CONTINUE TO
INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND...EXPECT A LITTLE MORE COVERAGE OF
STORMS LATE IN THE DAY ON THE FOURTH OF JULY. HIGHER THAN NORMAL
DEWPOINTS WILL MEAN WARM...MUGGY NIGHTS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...BUT
INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS CLOSER TO
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ON THE FOURTH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

ON SUNDAY...A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER SRN AZ GETS STEEERED AROUND
THE SLOWLY EASTWARD MOVING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND MOVES OVER
NORTHEAST UTAH AND WYOMING...WITH A GLANCING BLOW TO NORTHERN
COLORADO SUNDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE FRONT OOZES THROUGH THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES REGION AND SAGS INTO NORTHEAST UT
AND WEST CENTRAL COLORADO ON MONDAY. A PLUME OF PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.1 AND 1.4 INCHES GETS PULLED NORTH ACROSS
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH SUNDAY. WITH THE
AVAILABLE HIGH MOISTURE...WEAK CAPE...BUT MODERATE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...EXPECT SUNDAY TO BE THE WETTEST DAY OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GET GOING AND SOAK MUCH
OF THE AREA. CHANCE OF PRECIP MAY NEED TO BE RAISED IF CURRENT
MODEL TRENDS HOLD TRUE. REGARDLESS...STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL
PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN...AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE MARGINALLY
SEVERE IF WE GET ENOUGH INSTABILITY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
PERIOD FOR POTENTIAL OF FLASH FLOODING...BUT RIGHT NOW BELIEVE
STORMS WILL BE MOVING FAST ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE EXCESSIVE RAIN
FALLING OVER ANY GIVEN LOCATION.

IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE...SURFACE FRONT
STALLS/WASHES OUT THROUGH OUR REGION AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS BACK NORTH OVER THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH WEAKER THAN
TODAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DECREASE BACK TO LESS THAN ONE
INCH...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SO WILL HAVE
TO CONTINUE MENTION OF MAINLY AFTN/NIGHT THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK. NOT UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK DOES THERE LOOK TO BE
A DRY PUNCH THAT MAY WORK INTO THE AREA ON SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF
A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INLAND OVER CA/NV. UNTIL
THEN...DEWPOINTS REMAIN HIGHER THAN NORMAL. HOWEVER...DAYTIME
HIGHS LIKELY TO REMAIN SLIGHLY BELOW NORMAL. A PLEASANT REPRIEVE
FROM THE HEAT OF THE PAST TWO WEEKS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SW COLORADO...SCATTERED -SHRA/-TSRA IS EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED
+SHRA/+TSRA CIGS BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS FOR KTEX AND KDRO.
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THIS AREA WILL BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNSET WITH ISOLATED -TSRA/-SHRA PERSISTING THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY
MORNING.

NW COLORADO AND ERN UTAH...MOSTLY DRY BUT ISOLATED -TSRA/-SHRA
WILL OCCUR ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE CHANCE THAT ANY OF THESE
STORMS MOVE OVER A TAF SITE (SUCH AS KVEL AND KCNY) IS LOW.
ANY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THIS REGION SHOULD END BETWEEN 03Z-06Z THIS
EVENING.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEN
LONG TERM...BEN
AVIATION...PF



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