986
FXUS65 KLKN 102204
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
304 PM PDT Fri May 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Warm weather with continued low probability for
afternoon showers and thunderstorms at least Saturday and again
early next week in the Monday/Tuesday time frame. Afternoon
breezes persist thru next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday night.

Isolated to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms focused
across central Nevada dissipate thru this evening and the first
part of tonight with dry weather expected the latter half of the
night. Northeasterly breezes also ease tonight. Overnight low
temperatures mostly reside in the 30s.

Closed upper low residing along the Utah/Arizona state line
meanders east Saturday and Saturday night with a 10% probability
for light afternoon showers in and near White Pine County,
although any activity will generally be situated over the high
terrain. Any rainfall accumulations over the terrain will be light
and around 0.10 or less. Northerly afternoon breezes also in
place with gusts 20-25 mph. Winds trend light to calm overnight.
Daytime high temperatures Saturday will be in the mid 60s to mid
70s with overnight lows in the mid 30s to mid 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM...Sunday through next Friday.

Upper level ridging will to move over the Great Basin region on
Sunday allowing for warming temperatures with highs in the 70s
and. This will bring warm conditions in the 70s and lower 80s
under a lighter, but still noticeable, northwest wind regime.

An upper-level wave is expected to move through northern and
central Nevada Monday through Tuesday. Weak forcing associated
with the passing trough and afternoon instability will result in
mainly afternoon convective showers with some isolated
thunderstorms across northeastern Nevada. Chances for any rain
are generally less than 30% with widespread wetting rains not
expected. Chances for showers move into east-central Nevada
Tuesday but limited atmospheric moisture will result in light to
no rain accumulation. Temperatures will cool a couple of degrees
early next week as a result of the weak cold front but highs will
still reach well into the 70s for most valleys. Lows through the
weekend and into next week will be above freezing in the 40s and
some lower 50s.

Ensemble guidance shows a fairly confident forecast for later next
week with ridging taking hold once again across the region.
However, some uncertainty exists in the strength but temperatures
are expected to generally increase under light surface winds,
limited cloud cover. Highs will generally be in the upper 70s to
low 80s through the end of the week with lows in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...Northeasterly winds will continue into the evening
hours while slowly diminishing across northern and central
Nevada. Shower activity including threat of TS will diminish from
01Z to 03Z across central Nevada. Chances for TS at KEKO will be
as high as 25% this afternoon and a bit lower at KTPH at around
15%. Showers/THundershower activity will be light, though possibly
mixed with small hail and gusty outflow winds in any
thunderstorms that may develop over central NV. VFR conditions are
expected across the I-80 corridor. Cloud bases will be elevated
at KELY and KTPH so predominant VFR conditions should prevail
through tonight.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Elevated flows continue across many streams, creeks,
and rivers throughout northern and central Nevada due to seasonal
snow melt. Temperature forecasts for the upcoming weekend and
into early next week depict spring-like temperatures with daytime
highs in the 70s and possibly the low 80s for some locales.
Overnight lows across the high elevations also likely reside
warming than freezing, further exacerbating snow melt. Given the
amount of high elevation snow pack remaining, look for runoff to
increase, causing continued elevated flows and rises for many area
streams and rivers across northern and central Nevada.

The Humboldt River at Battle Mountain resides in action stage and
is forecast remain in action stage for the next few days.

The Humboldt River at Comus is in action stage and is forecast to
remain in action stage for the next few days.

Wildhorse Dam Reservoir currently resides in action stage and is forecast
to remain in action stage for the next several days.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.

&&

$$

92/93/93