Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 290004
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
804 PM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A coastal low will move along the Crystal Coast today, followed
quickly by a cold front passage. High pressure then builds in
from the south over the weekend with another frontal passage
likely early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 7 PM Thursday...Things are starting to quiet down as the
surface low moves further offshore. After a very soggy day, the
only remaining showers reside over the eastern portion of the
CWA. Satellite imagery shows much drier air moving in behind
these showers as high pressure builds north from the Gulf
states. The pressure gradient between the building high and
departing low should generate enough wind overnight to keep us
mixed and avoid fog.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
As of 145 PM Thursday...

The flow on Friday will become westerly in the wake of today`s
coastal low. A downsloping flow, plenty of sunshine, and
improved mixing will support warm and breezy conditions. BUFKIT
momentum transfer guidance suggests wind gusts could top out in
the 25-30+ mph range. This is a bit higher than the previous
forecast. Given the additional warming and mixing associated
with the downsloping flow, the increase in winds seems
reasonable, so I bumped winds and temps up a bit.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 330 AM Thurs...High pressure remains in place through the
weekend resulting in benign weather across ENC. Next potential
frontal boundary then impacts the area early to mid week next
week.

Friday night through Sunday... Upper level trough will be to
the north and east of the Carolinas to start the period and
continue to push further away while zonal flow sets up aloft
through Sat before broad upper ridging extends over ENC on Sun.
At the surface, a ridge of high pressure builds in from the
south and west and extends over the Carolinas to start our
weekend.

Zonal flow remains overhead on Sat with a weak mid level
shortwave riding along this flow to our north. At the surface
associated frontal boundary will be located to the north with a
weak low riding E`wards along the front while surface ridging
continues to extend N`wards into the Carolinas. While we expect
to remain precip free on Sat some additional cloud cover may
begin to sneak into our northern zones Sat afternoon and
evening, though with breezy SW`rly surface winds and increasing
low level thicknesses expecting a rather pleasant day overall
with high temps getting into the mid 70s inland and upper 60s
along the OBX, while lows remain rather warm Sat night only
getting down into the mid 50s. As we step into Sunday upper
ridging briefly builds overhead as a positively tilted upper
trough begins to dig into the western CONUS. At the surface,
ridging begins to slide off to the east while pesky surface
front to our north dips slightly S`wards nearing the CWA Sun
evening with yet another weak surface low riding E`wards along
the boundary, this will allow additional cloud cover to build
further south across the area, though we expect to generally
remain precip free Sun as well. Highs get into the low 80s
inland and near 70 across the OBX.

Monday through midweek next week...Upper level trough quickly
pushes E`wards nearing the Eastern Seaboard by midweek.
Associated low and cold front also quickly march E`wards on Mon
bringing our next best threat for precip on Tue. Front quickly
pushes offshore by Wed with fair weather forecast to return from
Wed onwards. Temps generally remain above avg on Mon and Tue
with near avg temps forecast behind the frontal passage on Wed.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 00z Friday/...
As of 7 PM Thursday...Conditions are improving as low pressure
moves further offshore and high pressure builds in from the Gulf
states. Clouds will be lifting and dissipating all together over
the next few hours and bring us back to VFR, which will last
through the period. The pressure gradient between the building
high and departing low should generate strong enough NW winds
overnight to keep us mixed and avoid fog. Winds become westerly
by tomorrow morning and will gust to around 25 kt during peak
afternoon heating.

LONG TERM /Friday through Tuesday/...
As of 330 AM Thurs...Expecting predominantly VFR conditions
through much of the period as high pressure ridging builds in
from the south. We will see some gusty W to SW`rly winds in the
afternoon on Sat with gusts above 20 kts possible, as the
pressure gradient takes a few days to relax behind a departing
low pressure system. Next potential threat for some sub-VFR
ceilings or vis look to be Mon night into Tues with the approach
of our next frontal boundary.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Friday/...
As of 145 PM Thursday...

An ~1006mb surface low was located just off the coast of ENC
this afternoon, and is moving east away from the area. The low
continues to be slower to deepen, but winds across area waters
have finally responded, with gusts of 25-35kt now being
observed. Winds will continue to increase through tonight, with
an increased risk of northerly gales. The forecast is tracking
well, and at this time, no significant changes appear to be
necessary. Winds will lay down some tonight, then build again on
Friday as a second surge of west/northwest winds develops
associated with a renewed tightening of the pressure gradient.

Seas of 5-6 ft this afternoon will quickly build to 8-10 ft by
tonight, and then remain elevated into Friday thanks to
continued gusty winds. We`ll plan to keep the current marine
headlines as-is, but some adjustments to timing will likely be
needed if the current wind trends hold. The main adjustments
will be potentially shortening the duration of gales, but we`ll
wait to see if the winds do, indeed, come down as quick as some
of the recent guidance shows.

LONG TERM /Friday night through Tuesday/...
As of 330AM Thursday...Marine headlines quickly drop from W to
E Sat into Sun as winds ease further with winds becoming SW`rly
and decreasing down to 5-15 kts by Sun and generally remain
around these speeds through early next week. Seas start out
around 6-9 ft on Fri but then quickly lower with the lighter
winds on Sat down to 4-7 ft with seas forecast to fall to 2-5 ft
by Sun.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 245 PM Wednesday...

Winds have finally begun to respond to low pressure deepening
offshore this afternoon. With the increase in winds, soundside
water levels are beginning to rise across Ocracoke and Hatteras
Islands. Water levels are rising earlier than anticipated,
therefore with this update, we`ll start the Coastal Flood
Advisory now (instead of the original 8pm start time). The
overall spirit of the forecast hasn`t changed, though, and for
now we still anticipate minor coastal flooding impacts for
soundside locations of Ocracoke and Hatteras Islands.

As the low pulls away, another round of large, breaking waves
and ocean overwash will impact oceanside areas from Ocracoke
north through the Northern Outer Banks. Though seas are quite a
bit lower this morning, generally around 5-6 ft across the
Northern Outer Banks and down towards Ocracoke., seas will
rapidly increase this afternoon with long period 5-9 ft seas
forecast. As a result have kept the high surf advisory in effect
through Friday morning. After Friday morning aforementioned low
pressure will quickly pull away from the area resulting in seas
lowering down to 4-6 ft and thus ending the high surf threat.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for NCZ203-205.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT Friday for NCZ204-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Friday for AMZ131-136-137-
     230-231.
     Gale Warning until 3 AM EDT Friday for AMZ135.
     Gale Warning until 7 AM EDT Friday for AMZ150.
     Gale Warning until 9 AM EDT Friday for AMZ152-154.
     Gale Warning until 8 AM EDT Friday for AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RM/OJC
SHORT TERM...RM
LONG TERM...CEB/RCF
AVIATION...RCF/OJC
MARINE...RM/RCF
HYDROLOGY...MHX
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX


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