Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 031954
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
155 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS SHOWING A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE 4-CORNERS REGION NW ACROSS NEVADA
INTO SRN OREGON WHILE A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS LIFTING NORTH
ALONG THE SRN CALIFORNIA COAST DRAWING SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE
NORTHWARD ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA AROUND THE WRN PERIPHERY OF
THE HIGH. FURTHER NORTH...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS SLOWLY DIGGING
ESE INTO NRN ALBERTA WHILE A SECOND DISTURBANCE WAS PUSHING NE INTO
THE GULF OF ALASKA. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE SHOWING A SIMILAR
PROGRESSION IN THE PATTERN THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE CANADIAN LOW
PROGRESSES FURTHER ESE INTO CNTRL SASKATCHEWAN BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
THE TRAILING GULF OF ALASKA DISTURBANCE DIGS RAPIDLY SE INTO NW
MONTANA EXTENDING THE DEPTH OF THE CANADIAN LOW. MEANWHILE...THE LOW
WORKING NORTH ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST STALLS OFF OF CNTRL
CALIFORNIA WITH SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE POOLING UNDER THE WEAKENING
GREAT BASIN RIDGE OVER NEVADA AND UTAH. THUS...WITH THE WEAKENING
RIDGE WE ARE EXPECTING LIGHT TO MODERATE SW WINDS SATURDAY FOLLOWED
BY COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. AS THE CANADIAN LOW SHIFTS EAST
MONDAY/TUESDAY...THE LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST BEGINS TO SHIFT
CLOSER TO THE COAST WHILE A SECOND DISTURBANCE DIGS SE THROUGH WRN
CANADA INTO NW MONTANA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THUS TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN MILD (NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS) TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A
CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODEL
VARIABILITY BEGINS TO INCREASE DRAMATICALLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AS THEY STRUGGLE TO RESOLVE THE SPEED AND TRACK OF THE CALIFORNIA
LOW AS IT LIFTS INLAND INTO AND ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. FOR NOW...WE
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT
WEEK WITH A CHANCE MENTION OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. HUSTON
&&

.AVIATION....VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES THROUGH FRIDAY.  UP VALLEY WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT
BYI...PIH AND IDA.   MAY SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY IN VICINITY
OF SUN AND BYI WITH MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY SUNDAY.  GK
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE VERY HOT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY.  MAY SEE SOME 10 TO 15 MPH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS.  ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
WELL MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS NEAR THE UTAH BORDER AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OR SAWTOOTH AND LOST RIVER RANGE REGIONS.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD ON SUNDAY WITH
SCATTERED COVERAGE LIKELY IN ALL ZONES.  TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO
COOL DOWN BY ABOUT 10 DEGREES ON SUNDAY.  EXPECT THE MUCH COOLER
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DAILY. GK
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$



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