Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 180919

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
219 AM MST Wed Jan 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...Today through Friday. Active pattern is setting up
for the next couple of days. Winter storm warnings remain in
effect for the Central Mountains, Eastern Magic Valley, and South
Central Highlands where the greatest snowfall accumulations are
expected. The threat of freezing rain remains for the Eastern
Magic Valley, but forecast soundings suggest it may be relatively
short lived as the inversion erodes and the column cools. Snow
amounts remain 8 to 10 inches in the Central Mountains, 5 to 7
inches in the Eastern Magic Valley, and up to 10 inches in the
high country of the South Central Highlands. Lesser amounts are
expected elsewhere, but snowfall rates should be much more
manageable. Hinsberger

LONG TERM...Friday night through Wednesday. Good model agreement
continues early in the forecast period. Both GFS and ECMWF swing
shortwave through Friday night and Saturday, with brief break
Saturday night before stronger system reaches the state Sunday
through Monday. Details break down after this period with
operational models and ensembles losing consensus on shortwave
feature. General idea is that it broadens and briefly closes off
before ejecting into the Plains sometime Tuesday. This should leave
Idaho in colder drier northerly flow beginning Tuesday and
continuing into midweek. Overall this trend isn`t a significant
difference from previous runs. Adjustments tonight were to nudge
pops upward Sunday-Monday and then trend drier afterwards. Temps
were kept close to a consensus blend. DMH


.AVIATION...VFR conditions in place for all East Idaho terminals
this morning, and expect fog/stratus to be minimized. Sat/radar
shows next system rolling through PacNW states, but should be slow
to work into the state today. KSUN/KBYI likely to see earliest
impact with precip reaching these areas by mid-late afternoon.
Precip will be slow to spread east after that and could hold off
arrival at KPIH/KIDA/KDIJ until sunrise Thu morning. Models have
been very consistent at bringing wedge of warm air into KBYI late
this afternoon and early evening so will likely highlight threat of
FZRA for KBYI. All precip at remaining sites, once it arrives, will
be snow with conditions dropping to IFR or LIFR. DMH


Winter Storm Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM MST
Thursday for IDZ017-022.

Winter Storm Warning from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM MST
Thursday for IDZ018-031.


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