Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 272003
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
205 PM MDT Sat May 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday. Early afternoon satellite and
radar imagery were showing modest isolated to scattered convection
along the Montana and Wyoming Divide under a weakly unstable NW flow
aloft. The numerical models continue to show the ridge of high
pressure currently positioned over the NW states advancing inland
through early next week with residual moisture and increased surface
heating fueling isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms over
the mountains. Have made very few adjustments to the going forecast
which appeared to have this scenario well in hand. Huston

.LONG TERM...Tuesday night through Saturday. Models continue to show
the strong high pressure ridge start to break down by Wednesday.
Though, there continues to be differences on how fast.  The GFS
model breaks down the ridge and brings moisture into the area by
late Wednesday into Thursday and then brings an upper level low
North of the area on Saturday. The ECMWF model starts to break down
the ridge late Thursday into Friday showing little moisture moving
into the area and then brings the upper level low over the area
Sunday into Monday.  Expect above normal temperatures on Wednesday
and gradually dropping to near to slightly below normal by Saturday.
Wyatt
&&

.AVIATION...Expect VFR conditions and overall light winds the next
couple of days under strong high pressure. Wyatt
&&

.HYDROLOGY...River levels have continued to drop over the last two
days due to cooler temperatures despite the rainfall recorded across
a good portion of SE Idaho Friday. Temperatures are expected to warm
through the week as a ridge builds over the region and thus a
resumption of the snowmelt flooding in the central Idaho mountains.
We should also see a response from the Henry`s Fork, Teton River and
Snake River as a result of the warming anticipated. The portneuf
appears to be in the final stages of melting out the higher
elevations within this lower elevation reach. The Bear River still
has a ways to go with ample snow still residing within the higher
mountains across Utah. Huston
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&

$$


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