Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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000
FXUS65 KPIH 310856
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
256 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE FLOW SHIFTING
TO SOUTHWEST TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE NEAR
NORMAL RISING TO ABOVE NORMAL AS FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. DO NOT EXPECT PRECIPITATION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE AFTERNOON WIND INCREASES TO THE 10 TO 20 MPH
RANGE ALL THREE DAYS ESPECIALLY IN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN.
GK

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
SOME LONG TERM MODEL DIFFERENCES. BOTH EUROPEAN AND GFS MODELS
MOVE A TROF EAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BUT GFS MUCH QUICKER WITH
THE SYSTEM WHILE THE EUROPEAN HOLDS IN BACK AND DOES NOT PUSH IT
THROUGH IDAHO UNTIL SUNDAY. GFS BRINGS THROUGH A MUCH WEAKER
SYSTEM ON SATURDAY. REGARDLESS OF CORRECT SOLUTION MAIN TREND IS
IT WILL TURN MUCH COOLER THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL EXPECTED. EUROPEAN IS WETTER
LONGER THAN THE GFS WITH SOME SHOWERS THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE THE GFS
DRIES IT OUT BY SATURDAY. FOR NOW KEPT IN SOME CHANCES THROUGH
SUNDAY MAINLY IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. GK

&&

.AVIATION...DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS
THRU TONIGHT. BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE UPPER SNAKE PLAIN
THIS AFTN. HEDGES

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE
REGION. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO THE LOW
TO MID TEENS THIS AFTERNOON AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. IT WILL BE
BREEZY ACROSS THE UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA. THE UPPER FLOW TURNS TO THE
SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PAC NW.
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY FALLS TO LOWER READINGS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN WINDY
CONDITIONS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY READINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE BORDERLINE RED FLAG VALUES. ONLY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WED AFTERNOON AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HEDGES

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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