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000
FXUS65 KPIH 230907
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
307 AM MDT THU MAY 23 2013

.DISCUSSION...A CLOSED LOW IS STILL PARKED ACROSS WESTERN
WASHINGTON AND OREGON THIS MORNING. A RATHER NARROW BAND OF RAIN
AND SNOW DOWN TO AROUND 6000FT HAS BEEN PERSISTENT ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...FROM NEAR/WEST OF BURLEY NORTHWARD
INTO EASTERN LEMHI COUNTY. THIS BAND WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY DIE
OUT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH EARLY MORNING...WITH SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
ANY SNOW THAT HAS FALLEN/WILL FALL WITHIN THIS BAND SHOULD STICK
TO NON-ROAD SURFACES. OTHERWISE...WE ARE WAITING FOR THE NEXT WAVE
ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW TO ARRIVE THIS EVENING. THIS WILL HELP
KICK OFF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ACROSS THE AREA. THE HIGHEST
CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND UPPER SNAKE
HIGHLANDS. THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND BENCHES ALONG THE
SOUTHERN SNAKE PLAIN COULD SEE AN ISOLATED STORM AS THE WAVE RACES
NORTHEAST. FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA...A CHANCE OF A STORM
DEVELOPING IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT. AS THE WAVE SWINGS NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT...DRY AIR MOVES IN BEHIND IT AND BY SUNRISE ONLY EXPECT
SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH IN THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS TODAY
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COOLER TONIGHT AS WELL. IT WILL BE BELOW FREEZING ACROSS
MOST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND BEAR LAKE. THE REST OF US WILL
BE AROUND 32-42 DEGREES. THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR FROST ACROSS
THE SNAKE PLAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE 32-36 DEGREES WITH
SOME SPOTS JUST ABOVE THAT ADJACENT TO THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN
BENCHES. THERE IS SOME WIND IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT WHICH MAY
ACTUALLY KEEP ANY FROST FROM FORMING. AT THIS POINT...WE WILL NOT
ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND. THE
DAY SHIFT WILL MAKE THE FINAL CALL.

THE MAIN PART OF THE LOW WILL FINALLY SWING NORTH AND EAST ON
FRIDAY AND INTO CANADA OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP SOME
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS GOING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND THE UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS. IT WILL BE BREEZY
AT TIMES BUT NOTHING THAT WILL MEET IMPACT THRESHOLDS EVEN ON AREA
LAKES. WE WILL WARM UP WITH HIGHS BY SATURDAY BACK INTO THE 70S IN
THE LOWER VALLEYS AND 50S/60S IN THE MOUNTAINS. FOR THE REST OF
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...A SECOND SYSTEM SWINGS INLAND AND ACROSS
IDAHO. EXPECT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AROUND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL JUST BE
COLD ENOUGH FOR LIGHT SNOW AT MID AND UPPER ELEVATIONS AT NIGHT
AND IN THE EARLY MORNING...BUT ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
HAVE MAJOR IMPACTS ON TRAVEL OR RECREATIONAL ACTIVITIES. HIGHS
WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S ACROSS THE LOWER VALLEYS AND 50/60S IN THE
MOUNTAINS. BEYOND THAT...THE MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER SLOW
MOVING SYSTEM MOVING INTO IDAHO BY MIDWEEK. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND IN THIS PATTERN WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND AVERAGE FOR THE END OF MAY.   KEYES



&&

.AVIATION... DEEP UPPER LOW POSITIONED OVER WASHINGTON WILL PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS FAVORING THE
CENTRAL AND ERN IDAHO MOUNTAINS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL LOWER MID-LEVEL CIGS ARE ANTICIPATED AT
THE TERMINAL SITES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. A MENTION OF VCTS MAY BE
REQUIRED AT KSUN GIVEN ITS PROXIMITY TO A BROADER AREA OF
INSTABILITY EXPECTED OVER THE CNTRL MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON/EVE.
HUSTON

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM POSITIONED OVER
WASHINGTON WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST INTO CANADA THROUGH
SATURDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
WILL IMPACT MAINLY THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN IDAHO MOUNTAINS THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING FROM TIME TO TIME OVER THE
SNAKE PLAIN AND SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A SECOND PACIFIC TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS INTO THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
PROVIDING A BROADER OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN IDAHO.
HUSTON

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$