Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 282354
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
554 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...WE ARE DOING AN EARLY UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR STORMS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS. IT ALSO
APPEARS THAT SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL TRY AND HANG TOGETHER
ACROSS THE UPPER PLAIN. IT ALSO APPEARS WE WILL HAVE A LITTLE MORE
CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AREAWIDE. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE MAINLY
EAST OF I-15 ACROSS THE UPPER SNAKE PLAIN AND HIGHLANDS. DON`T
EXPECT A WHOLE LOT OF RAIN WITH THIS...BUT WE MAY SEE GUSTY WINDS
ESPECIALLY AS THINGS MOVE OUT OVER THE PLAIN. KEYES

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 215 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MULTIPLE WAVES
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...SOME ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH OVER
THE GULF OF ALASKA AND SOME MERGING ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
THE NAM12 MODEL PICKS UP ON THE DISTURBANCE IN EASTERN OREGON AND
BRINGS IT ALONG THE MONTANA BORDER BETWEEN MONIDA PASS AND ISLAND
PARK THIS EVENING THROUGH ABOUT SUN RISE FRIDAY FOR A FEW SHOWERS.
SOME OF THE MOISTURE SURGING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
APPEARS TO BE REMNANTS OF FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE LOWELL SO IT MAY
CARY SOME MOISTURE WITH IT. FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH FRIDAY ALONG WITH INCREASED MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FAVORED IN THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND PERHAPS THE BURLEY AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THEN
FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT THE TROUGH ADVANCES TO IDAHO WITH MODELS
DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION IN THE UPPER/LOWER SNAKE PLAIN AND
EASTERN HIGHLANDS. SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE THROUGH BY LATE SATURDAY
MORNING. ONE OR TWO WAVES DEVELOP ON THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SLOWING IT DOWN AS IT CROSSES THE SNAKE PLAIN. WEST-SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO THE LOWER 30S ARE EXPECTED IN
THE SNAKE PLAIN SATURDAY. SPOTTY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS LINGER IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SUNDAY/MONDAY...THEN DRIER UNDER AN INCREASING
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BY TUESDAY. TIMING OF THE A NEW TROUGH
ENTERING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY IS IN DOUBT..FORECAST
REFLECTS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS FOR NOW ON WEDNESDAY.
RS

AVIATION...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED WINDS AS A WEAK TROUGH PASSES OVER OUR NORTHERN AREAS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. EXPECT ELEVATED WINDS AGAIN
FRIDAY AS WELL WITH WEAK THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FROM INSTABILITY AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT DUE TO MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY. WYATT

FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO BREAK DOWN TOMORROW AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. LOOK
FOR MOSTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. ADDITIONALLY EXPECT BREEZY WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE BECOMING STRONGER SATURDAY WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH
POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY OVER THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN. LOOK FOR COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY OVER THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WYATT

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






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