Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 270512
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1012 PM MST FRI DEC 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 809 PM MST FRI DEC 26 2014

LOADED IN LATEST OBSERVATION DATA AND MADE SOME MINOR POP UPDATES
FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MST FRI DEC 26 2014

...SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND COLD...

UPPER LOW VERY SLOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.  LOW CENTER IS
CURRENTLY JUST A LITTLE SOUTHEAST OF WOLF CREEK PASS.  MUCH OF THE
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE
EVENING UNTIL THE LOW CENTER SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA LATER IN THE
NIGHT.  ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS FOR MOST WILL BE UNDER AN INCH OF
LIGHT...FLUFFY SNOW.  HOWEVER...SOME MOUNTAIN AREAS COULD SEE
ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES.  PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP OVER THE AREA TONIGHT
DUE TO THE FRESH MOISTURE IN THE AIR.  THIS WOULD BE ESPECIALLY TRUE
IN SNOW COVERED AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS WHERE COLD AIR COLLECTS.

SNOWFALL SHOULD END COMPLETELY BY SATURDAY MORNING...LEAVING BEHIND
A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AND COLD SATURDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WELL BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS REMAINING BELOW FREEZING AT MOST
LOCATIONS...INCLUDING THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MST FRI DEC 26 2014

...VERY COLD MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...

.SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF
A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. GRADUALLY INCREASED
POPS FOR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AS A LEAD SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS REGION SUNDAY. MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE BEST MOISTURE
REMAINING TO THE NORTH. HAVE LIKELY POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF
LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES SUNDAY...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR
SNOW NORTH OF COTTONWOOD PASS. CURRENTLY ANTICIPATING
ACCUMULATIONS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. FURTHER EAST...AIR ALOFT
REMAINS COOL.  WITH WEAK MIXING HIGHS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE MID
30S TO LOWER 40S ON THE PLAINS.

.MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION ON MONDAY. ANTICIPATE FIRST ARCTIC FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS SOMETIME EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
GRIDS HAVE MAXIMUMS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S ON MONDAY FROM THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND TO THE EAST. COLDEST AIR ALOFT WILL STAY
NORTH OF THE REGION AND THE VERY COLD AIR WILL BE DELAYED IN
REACHING INTO THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND POSSIBLY THE UPPER ARKANSAS
RIVER VALLEY. STILL HIGHS IN THESE REGIONS WILL ONLY BE IN THE
20S. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS LIKELY OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE REGION.
IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT ACCUMULATIONS WILL STAY BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA

WITH THE ARCTIC AIR OVER THE PLAINS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS...LIGHT
SNOW COULD DEVELOP ON MONDAY AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.
ANTICIPATE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW WITH RELATIVELY
MODEST ACCUMULATIONS. BY MONDAY NIGHT...MINIMUMS ON THE PLAINS
WILL BE BELOW ZERO. COLDEST LOW LEVEL AIR MOVES ONTO THE EASTERN
PLAINS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY. GRIDS CURRENTLY HAVE
HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS FOR THESE REGIONS ON
TUESDAY. THE UPPER LOW...WITH THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT...MOVES INTO
NEVADA AND ARIZONA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT ON THE
PLAINS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS COULD BE QUITE COLD...WITH GRIDS
CURRENTLY HAVING LOWS AROUND 5 BELOW TO 10 BELOW. IF WIDESPREAD
SNOW COVER DEVELOPS ON THE PLAINS...THEN MINIMUMS COULD BE LOWER.
WITH THE -30C AIR AT 500MB STAYING TO THE WEST OF THE
REGION...BELIEVE THERE ARE A LOW CHANCES OF MINIMUM PLUMMETING TO
TO 20 BELOW OR COLDER. ON WEDNESDAY...SOME MODERATION BEGINS AS
THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR MOVES TO THE EAST AND RELATIVELY MILDER
AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

.NEW YEARS DAY AND FRIDAY...UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS ARIZONA AND
NEW MEXICO. BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF THE
UPPER LOW...SO MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL STAY SOUTH OF
COLORADO. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BEFORE THE ARCTIC AIR
POTENTIALLY RELOADS ON THE WEEKEND. --PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1008 PM MST FRI DEC 26 2014

KALS...A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER AROUND THE TERMINAL
THROUGH 08Z TONIGHT WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR BY SATURDAY
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH STRATUS DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

KCOS...PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH 09Z TONIGHT WITH
REDUCED CIGS AND VIS. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ONCE THE
SNOW DISSIPATES WITH VFR CONDITIONS BY SATURDAY MORNING AND
PERSISTING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

KPUB...A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN AROUND THE TERMINAL
THROUGH 08Z TONIGHT. CIGS WILL IMPROVING BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.  MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...MOZLEY


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