Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
FXUS65 KPUB 112145
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
345 PM MDT FRI JUL 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM MDT FRI JUL 11 2014

CURRENTLY...THE UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINED OVER THE
REGION TODAY...THOUGH THE RIDGE AXIS WAS A BIT FUTHER EAST TODAY AND
WAS LOCATED OVER WESTERN KS AND THE PANHANDLES. THIS HAS DRAWN THE
MOISTURE PLUME UP ACROSS WESTERN NM AND CO...AND IT HAS BEEN...AND
CONTINEUS TO BE...VERY ACTIVE. ACTIVITY STARTED EARLY THIS MORNING
ALONG THE CONTDVD...AND HAS BEEN TIED MAINLY TO THE MTS.

OVERALL..A LARGE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CANADA WILL SWEEP A
SHORTWAVE ACROSS MONTANA TONIGHT...PUSHING A COLD FRONT DOWN INTO
THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 12Z TOMORROW MORNING. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL
HELP TO SHOVE THE UPPER RIDGE BACK TO THE WEST LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS TRENDING TO THE WEST OF THE 4 CORNERS.

TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING
THROUGH ABOUT 03Z. THE STORMS HAVE BEEN VERY SLOW MOVING...SO THERE
REMAINS A DEFINITE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL OVER AREA BURN SCARS
AND THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. DEWPOINT READINGS AROUND 50 F FOR
MUCH OF THE PLAINS INDICATES THAT THERE ALSO IS THE OUTSIDE CHANCE
FOR A STRONG STORM TO BECOME SEVERE. ACTIVITY IS THEN FORECAST TO
RETREAT TO THE MTS AND WEST BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z.

TOMORROW...THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP DOWN ACROSS THE PALMER
DVD AROUND 12Z...THEN PUSH SOUTH THROUH 17Z. SFC WINDS WILL THEN
SWING AROUND TO A MORE EASTERLY UPSLOPE DIRECTION BY MIDDAY...AND
MODELS INDICATE THAT ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ALONG THE
E MTS AND I25 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO SPREAD ACROSS THE E PLAINS AS WELL...WHILE QPF AMOUNTS ALONG THE
E MTS POINT TO A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE WATER THAT COULD FALL
OVER AREA BURN SCARS. THERE IS A QPF BULLSEYE OVER EL PASO AND
TELLER COUNTIES...SO PEOPLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE WALDO CANYON BURN
SCAR WILL HAVE TO REMAIN VIGILANT TOMORROW FOR APIDLY CHANGING
WEATHER CONDITIONS. AS FOR TEMPS...WENT ON THE COOL SIDE OF
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE THOUH THE MAFTN MAX TEMPS WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW
FAST THE FRONT MOVES IN...AND HOW QUICKLY THE SKIES CLOUD UP.
MOORE

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM MDT FRI JUL 11 2014

...COOL AND WET WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...

.SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...ABUNDANT MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE
TROPOSPHERE CONTINUES WITH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE ON THE EASTERN
PLAINS COMBINED WITH THE REMNANT OF THE MONSOON PLUME ALOFT.
PRECIPITABLE WATERS ARE GREATER THAN ONE INCH OVER MUCH OF THE
PLAINS. LATEST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ON SUNDAY THAT THE ATMOSPHERE
ON THE PLAINS COULD BE MORE STABLE THAN SATURDAY DUE TO COOLER
LOWER LEVEL AIRMASS. BELIEVE THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH HEATING
FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...THE
AREA MAY GET BRUSHED BY A DISTURBANCE PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION. CURRENT GRIDS HAVE MOSTLY SCATTERED POPS ON THE PLAINS
WITH SCATTERED TO LIKELY POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. STORMS WILL TEND
TO BE SLOW MOVING AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM STORMS
WHICH DEVELOP.

.MONDAY...UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS TO THE WEST OF THE REGION...AND
SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL ADVECT INTO THE CWA FROM THE WEST.
HOWEVER...COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING INCREASED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO THE PLAINS AND POSSIBLY THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. WINDS
ALOFT INCREASE AS UNSEASONABLY STRONG TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE UPPER
MIDWEST. WITH THE INCREASED SHEAR...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ON THE PLAINS. CURRENT
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERE WILL BE A MODEST AMOUNT OF CAPE...ROUGHLY
IN THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG RANGE. HOWEVER...A MODEST CHANGE IN LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE OR COOLING ALOFT COULD INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE STORMS.

.TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE REGION WILL BE ON THE WESTERN EDGE
OFTHE UNSEASONABLY STRONG TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.
COOL...AND MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE PLAINS AND
EASTERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HAVE SOME CONCERNS THAT THE
AIRMASS MAY TO CAPPED FURTHER EAST WHICH WILL LIMIT CONVECTION.
FOLLOWED THE CR PROCEDURE FOR POPS WHICH GENERALLY HAVE POPS
INCREASING FROM THE PLAINS TOWARD THE MOUNTAINS. EC SHOWS A COUPLE
OF DISTURBANCES MOVING SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE DEEP
UPPER TROUGH...WHICH COULD INCREASE CONVECTION. TROUGH WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE EAST WITH A WARMING TREND BY THE WEND OF THE WEEK.
--PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 345 PM MDT FRI JUL 11 2014

IN GENERAL...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KCOS...KPUB AND KALS
OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. HAVE MAINTAINED A MENTION OF VCTS FOR THE
THREE SITES TONIGHT UNTIL BETWEEN 01-03Z. STORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING
SLOWLY TODAY...SO STRONGER STORMS THIS EVENING WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN WHICH COULD BRIEFLY CAUSE LOWER VSBYS AND CIGS. A FRONT
WILL DROP DOWN THE E PLAINS TOMORROW MORNING BETWEEN 12Z AND
14Z...THEN CONTINUE SOUTH THROUH MIDDAY. STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z FOR KCOS AND KPUB WITH
OCNL IFR-MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING DUE TO STORMS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...MOORE



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