Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 241011

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
411 AM MDT Mon Jul 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 410 AM MDT Mon Jul 24 2017

...Another day of Storms Primarily in and near the Mountains...

Satellite pictures this morning reveal an elongated H5 upper level
high pressure axis through Richfield and Green River, Utah and
through Grand Junction, Aspen and Colorado Springs.  This is
generally providing a subsident, drying flow over most of southern
Colorado at this time.  Interestingly, the H3 upper level ridge axis
is much farther south, over Arizona and New Mexico.  This is
allowing some upper level moisture to drift into the southwestern
mountain areas this morning.  Today should be similar to yesterday
in the sense that afternoon and evening storms will again be
confined generally to areas in and near the mountains.  The 06Z run
of the NAM12 shows steering winds keeping storms over or near the
higher terrain, generally drifting them westward back into the
mountains.  There could be some variation to this given the light
flow aloft and the forcing effects of convective outflow boundaries
but in general this should be the case.  Tonight, the convectively
active area seen in satellite pictures this morning to our southwest
over Arizona and New Mexico will get caught up in the circulation
around the high pressure area over Colorado and be pulled northward
into western Colorado.  The system looks like it will primarily
impact western slope areas with nocturnal convection but it could
bring an uptick in activity along the Continental Divide overnight
although current high res model runs don`t really support this.  The
high res models do bring some activity northward along the Divide
late this evening and through the overnight hours but nothing very
intense or widespread at this time.  This will have to be monitored
in case it turns out to be more intense or widespread.

The primary concern across the forecast area this afternoon and
evening will continue to be the possibility of thunderstorms,
producing heavy rain, tracking over burn scars.  Satellite derived
Total Precipitable Water (TPW) values this morning, while not
excessive, are running high enough to produce local heavy rain.  The
axis of average TPW this morning is currently running along a line
through Creede, Westcliffe and Pueblo, with values tapering down to
about 90 percent of average north of that line over Lake County and
tapering up to about 125 percent of average south of that line along
the Colorado border.  Other thunderstorm risks today will include
the potential for gusty outflow winds to around 50 mph and, as
always, lightning.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 410 AM MDT Mon Jul 24 2017

Tuesday...An upper ridge of high pressure over the US Central Plains
will keep conditions hot, as well as the monsoon plume of moisture
continuing to stream up across the Four Corners and into western CO.
Look for convection chances across all of the forecast area, though
the best chances will be over the higher terrain. Abundant available
moisture and weak steering flow will allow the flash flood risk to
persist for area burn scars. Look for max temps in the mid 70s to
lower 80s for the high valleys, and upper 80s to upper 90s for the

Wednesday through Friday...The ridge starts to flatten out and build
back to the west through mid-week, while multiple shortwaves will
pass to the north across WY and CO. A cold front late Wed will usher
in cooler air with reinforcing llvl upslope flow through Thu and
even into Fri. Convection chances increase for all of the forecast
area, especially on Wed and Thu, and the potential for flash
flooding over area burn scars remains a concern. Expect max temps in
the mid 70s to lower 80s for the high valleys, and 80s to around 90F
for the plains. However, Thu will be the coolest day of the week
with more cloud cover expected and highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s
for the plains.

Saturday and Sunday...The upper ridge strengthens to the west into
the Great Basin for the weekend, with gradually warming temps and
convection retreating back towards the higher terrain. Moore


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 410 AM MDT Mon Jul 24 2017

The flight area will see another day of afternoon and evening
thunderstorms, primarily in and near the mountains.  Tonight, a
disturbance currently over Arizona and New Mexico will drift north
across western portions of the flight area adjacent to the
Continental Divide.  This may cause a nocturnal upswing in activity
along and near the Divide through the late evening and overnight
hours.  Current high res models don`t show anything too extreme but
this will have to be monitored.  Primary concerns this afternoon and
evening will be similar to the past few days including locally heavy
rain, gusty outflow winds to around 50 mph and lightning. CIGS and
VSBYS can be expected to drop to MVFR, IFR and LIFR levels in areas
of precipitation.

The KALS terminal probably has the best chance at seeing a storm at
or near the terminal today as it is closer to the better moisture.
KCOS has a slight chance of seeing something although convection is
most likely to remain west of the terminal over the mountains.  KPUB
has very little chance of a storm today.




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