Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 111113
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
413 AM MST THU FEB 11 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM MST THU FEB 11 2016

...MINOR COOLING EXPECTED TODAY...

NORTHERLY SURGE BEHIND YESTERDAY`S DISTURBANCE HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE
MAJORITY OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...THOUGH LEE TROFFING ALONG ALONG
THE LOWER EASTERN SLOPES CONTINUES TO KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH CANON CITY STILL IN THE LOWER 40S WITH A WEST
WIND. TEMPERATURES ALOFT BEHIND THE FRONT ARE NOT ALL THAT MUCH
COOLER TODAY...HOWEVER WITH SFC WINDS EXPECTED TO SHIFT AROUND FROM
THE EAST...MIXING WILL BE LESS AND SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPERATURES
AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER FOR THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS.  WESTERLY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND LOWER EASTERN SLOPES
TODAY...SO TEMPERATURES THERE WILL NOT DIFFER ALL THAT MUCH FROM
YESTERDAY.

SIMILAR TO LAST EVENING...ANOTHER NORTHERLY SURGE WILL SPREAD
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PLAINS TONIGHT.  LEE TROF WILL LINGER ALONG
THE LOWER EASTERN SLOPES...SO WHILE LOWS OUT EAST MAY END UP A
LITTLE COOLER THAN THIS MORNING...LOCATIONS ALONG/WEST OF I-25 WILL
LIKELY REMAIN MILD WITH MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND
40. -KT

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM MST THU FEB 11 2016

MAIN LONGER TERM METEOROLOGICAL CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE
TEMPERATURES...GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES AS WELL AS LOW GRADE POPS AT
TIMES...PRIMARILY OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.

RECENT LONGER TERM PV ANALYSIS...FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS AND COMPUTER
SIMULATIONS INDICATE THAT A RELATIVELY DRY METEOROLOGICAL PATTERN
SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM
FRIDAY INTO WEDNESDAY(OUTSIDE OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
POSSIBLY FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS FROM LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY) AS
BASICALLY DRY NORTHWESTERLY TO ZONAL UPPER FLOW REMAINS OVER THE
CWA DURING THIS TIME-FRAME.

AT THE SURFACE...INITIAL FOCUS IS ON 1044 MB SURFACE HIGH LOCATED
OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AT 00Z SATURDAY WHICH SHIFTS INTO
EASTERN IOWA BY 18Z SATURDAY AND THEN WEAKENS AS IT MOVES INTO
EASTERN VIRGINIA BY 18Z SUNDAY. NORTHERLY SURGE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE LOCATED OVER EAST-CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO AT 12Z FRIDAY WITH SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO SURFACE LEE-SIDE
TROUGHING/SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
EVENING IN ADVANCE OF NEXT COLDER NORTHERLY SURGE IMPACTING
EASTERN SECTIONS SATURDAY NIGHT. THEN...VARYING DEGREES OF EASTERN
COLORADO SURFACE LEE-SIDE TROUGHING/SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT IS
ANTICIPATED FROM LATER SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...IT APPEARS THAT THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL OF
GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE EXPERIENCED OVER PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND POSSIBLY FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST DISTRICT FROM LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

IN ADDITION...THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED GUSTY WINDS
DURING THE LONGER TERM ARE STILL ANTICIPATED FROM SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY EVENING AND THEN AGAIN BY LATER WEDNESDAY. ALSO...ABOVE
SEASONAL MID-FEBRUARY TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM FRIDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH LOCATIONS NEAR THE COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER MAY
EXPERIENCE COOLER TEMPERATURES...PRIMARILY FROM SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 413 AM MST THU FEB 11 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS WITH WINDS AT TAF
SITES EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER 15 KTS. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$


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