Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
FXUS65 KPUB 311100
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
500 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 458 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

...INCREASED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY...

ACTIVE MONSOON PLUME EXTENDS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL CO EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN CO.  SEVERAL EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES CAN BE SEEN WITHIN THIS
PLUME WITH ONE ACROSS NORTHWEST CO...AND A SECOND ACROSS NE AZ
MOVING TOWARDS SOUTHWEST CO.  MEANWHILE...UPPER TROF IS CURRENTLY
EJECTING THROUGH THE NRN/US ROCKIES OF MT/WY.  THIS WILL SEND A
FRONT INTO SOUTHEAST CO THIS MORNING.

WITH SHORTWAVE ALREADY ENTERING SOUTHWEST CO...SHOULD SEE AN ACTIVE
DAY FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION WITH THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASING BY MID MORNING ACROSS THE WEST...AND BY NOON ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST MTS...AND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS.  CAPE DOES NOT LOOK TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE...AND DEEP
LAYER SHEARS ARE FAIRLY WEAK...BUT WITH PRECIP WATERS INCREASING TO
AROUND .75 TO 1.25...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING WILL BE
THE MAIN STORM THREATS TODAY.  WITH INCREASED FLOW ALOFT
TODAY...STORM MOTIONS SHOULD BE TO THE NORTHEAST AROUND 25 MPH.
ORDINARILY...STORM MOTIONS LIKE THESE SHOULD MINIMIZE THE THREAT FOR
FLASH FLOODING...BUT BURN SCARS WILL STILL HAVE TO MONITORED CLOSELY
THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WALDO AND WEST FORK. EVEN FOR THESE
AREAS...APPEARS STORM WILL BE HIT OR MISS...BUT LOW END POTENTIAL
FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL STILL THERE.  INITIAL SURGE OF THE FRONT
DOESN`T APPEAR TO CARRY MUCH COOLING BEHIND HIT...SO THINK IF
ANYTHING THIS MAY HELP TEMPERATURES TO WARM MORE QUICKLY THIS
MORNING.  SO HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL STILL BE QUITE WARM OUT
EAST.  LOOKS LIKE A STRONGER PUSH OF COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ENHANCED AND AIDED BY CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOWS.

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE PUSHING EASTWARD INTO KS DURING THE EVENING
HOURS WITH CONVECTION DECREASING OVER THE MAJORITY OF SOUTHERN CO
TONIGHT.  WILL KEEP SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY GOING ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHERE THERE MAY STILL
BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WITHIN THE MONSOON PLUME. -KT

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 458 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

NOT MANY ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED FROM EARLIER FORECAST THINKING
WITH TEMPERATURES AND POPS REMAINING PRIMARY LONGER TERM
METEOROLOGICAL CHALLENGES.

OVERALL...ANTICIPATE THAT GENERALLY ABOVE SEASONAL EARLY SEPTEMBER
TEMPERATURES(OUTSIDE OF SUNDAY...WHERE BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
ARE PROJECTED) AS WELL AS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED(PRIMARILY
AFTERNOON INTO NIGHT-TIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS) ARE EXPECTED
OVER MANY SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT DURING THE LONGER
TERM AS ADEQUATE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE COMBINES WITH UPPER ENERGY
AND SURFACE BOUNDARIES AT TIMES. AS ALWAYS...ANY STRONGER
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE MONITORED FOR FLOODING
CONCERNS/ISSUES...ESPECIALLY OVER RECENT BURN SCARS.

IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION SHOULD DEVELOP BY LATER THIS WEEKEND AS A NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE SURGE INTERACTS WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
AND A FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE PROFILE.

WARMEST CONDITIONS DURING THE LONGER TERM SHOULD BE NOTED FROM
TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WHILE COOLEST TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED
THIS WEEKEND. FINALLY...THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER
GRADIENTS WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 458 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

A FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS THIS
MORNING WHICH WILL CAUSE WINDS TO SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH AND REMAIN
NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY FOR BOTH KCOS AND KPUB.  A
LITTLE BETTER CHANCE EXISTS TODAY FOR -SHRA AND -TSRA TO IMPACT THE
TERMINALS...SO ALL THREE TAF SITES WILL CARRY AT LEAST A PERIOD OF
VCTS THIS AFTERNOON.  LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
THE PRIMARY STORM THREATS...ALONG WITH ERRATIC GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
UP TO 40 KTS.  CIGS/VIS COULD BRIEFLY DROP INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY
UNDER THE STRONGER STORMS.  THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY
THIS EVENING FOR THE TERMINALS...AS FOCUS SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE
PLAINS TONIGHT.  CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR AT THE TERMINALS WITH
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$


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