Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 300549
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1149 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1141 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

UPDATED TO END SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS FOR THE
NIGHT. NO OTHER UPDATES AT THIS TIME.  MOZLEY

UPDATE ISSUED AT 550 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

UPDATED TO ADJUST HUMIDITY VALUES THIS EVENING.  OBS AND HIGH-RES
MODEL GUIDANCE ARE MUCH DRIER THAN CURRENT FORECAST PROGS.  EXPECT
POOR RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT. NO OTHER UPDATES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 153 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FINALLY MAKING THEIR WAY NORTH...

NOT A LOT...BUT A FEW.  MORE THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME.  WHAT YOU
SEE IS WHAT YOU GET.  SHOULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE IN THE AREA ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER...MAINLY OVER AND
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 160...INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS...BEFORE DISSIPATING. PRIMARY THREATS WOULD BE LIGHTNING AND
WIND GUSTS TO ABOUT 45 MPH.

ON MONDAY...SHOULD SEE A BIT MORE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...AND A BIT FARTHER NORTH...TO ABOUT HIGHWAY
50 OR SO.  PRIMARY THREATS WOULD BE THE SAME...LIGHTNING AND GUSTS
TO ABOUT 45 MPH.  MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BUT
COULD BE SOME BLEED OVER ONTO THE ADJACENT VALLEYS AND PLAINS.

WARMING BACK UP TOMORROW...WITH HIGHS CREEPING UP TO AROUND 15 OR SO
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE AGAIN.  SEEMS LIKE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ARE THE NORM THESE DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 153 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MONDAY NIGHT...A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ACCOMPANYING MOISTURE WILL
KEEP THE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS GOING THROUGH MIDNIGHT...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN. LAPSE RATES WILL
ALLOW FOR THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER. LOWER ELEVATIONS SHOULD STAY
MAINLY DRY...WITH VERY LIGHT RAIN...VIRGA POSSIBILITY.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING...MOISTER IS PRETTY SLIM...SO ONLY A
FEW SHOWERS WILL POP UP MID-AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE ACROSS THE CWA...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REACH INTO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH 60S
AND 70S HIGH VALLEYS AND 40S AND 50S MOUNTAINS.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL ALOFT AND
STRENGTHEN...AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE COMPARABLE TO TUESDAY. MODELS
FOCUS ON THIS DAY AS BEING THE DRIEST AND MOST WINDY ACROSS ALL
THE CWA...SO FIRE WEATHER INTERESTS SHOULD BE WATCHFUL. 700 MB
WINDS INCREASE INTO THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE AND FIRE DANGER WILL
INCREASE ON THE PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. MOUNTAINS WILL BE
BREEZY TO WINDY...AND A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP BY LATE DAY AS THE
TROUGH APPROACHES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS
DURING THE EVENING. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL TURN FROM A EASTERLY DIRECTION.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE GFS AND EUROPEAN HAVE DIVERGENT
SOLUTIONS...MAKES THE FORECASTER CONFIDENCE RATHER LOW. THURSDAY
MAY BE QUITE BREEZY TO WINDY ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTION OF THE
CWA...SO THERE MAY BE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.THE EUROPEAN MODEL IS
MOVING THE SHORTWAVE THROUGH MUCH FASTER...WHICH BRINGS MORE
MOISTURE INTO THE PLAINS...WHILE THE GFS HOLDS THE TROUGH BACK TO
THE WEST. THE GFS BRINGS THE COOLER AIR IN LATER ACROSS THE PLAINS
(LATER FRIDAY)...WHICH THE EUROPEAN HAS RIDGING AND DRYING BY
THEN. THE FORECAST PROCEDURE HAS THE COOLEST DAY FRIDAY WITH THE
FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED ACTIVITY IN OUR CWA.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH UPPER RIDGING FOR THE WEEKEND
AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. -TLM-

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

TAF SITES WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON. GREATEST
COVERAGE WILL STAY CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS AND THE EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE KALS TERMINAL...BUT
COULD SPREAD WEST WINDS INTO THE TERMINAL DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. -KT


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...KT



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