Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY

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000
FNUS75 KRIW 200900
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR WHITE CREEK...WY-BTF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
300 AM MDT WED JUL 20 2016

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 2039 MDT ON JULY 19.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS
EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY WILL BE THE MOST CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY OF THE WEEK AS A
SLIGHTLY TIGHTER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP AND COMBINES WITH
STRONGER FLOW ALOFT THAT WILL BE ABLE TO GET TO THE SURFACE
EASIER UNDER INCREASINGLY DRY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS...INCREASING THE WIND
SPEEDS AT THE SURFACE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. RH VALUES WILL ALSO LOWER
INTO THE TEENS FOR THE AREA AS THE WINDS INCREASE IN STRENGTH...GUSTING
25 TO 30 MPH AT TIMES BY MID AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN AGAIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
OF NEXT WEEK THERE WILL BE A FLOW PATTERN CHANGE REGARDING WIND DIRECTION...
WITH MORE WEST/EAST FLOW ALOFT AND BETTER CHANCES FOR WINDS TO COME AROUND
OUT OF THE WEST TO NORTH INSTEAD OF THE SOUTHWEST.

ADDITIONALLY...IT WILL LARGELY REMAIN DRY OVER THE NEXT 10 DAYS OR LONGER
EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS A NEARBY CHANCE OVER A HIGHER PEAK. OTHERWISE...THERE
WILL BE WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AS THE MAIN
STORM TRACK MOVES WELL TO THE NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WHILE THE
MONSOONAL MOISTURE KEEPS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...BRAUN

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (15 TO 20 PERCENT) BECOMING
                    SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....80-85.
MIN HUMIDITY........13-17 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY BECOMING
                    UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST
                    12 TO 17 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 23 TO 28 MPH
                    IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 10800 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 15 TO 25 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 25
                    TO 30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (33500 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT
                    (231200 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR (0-10 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 50.
MAX HUMIDITY........45-55 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 12 MPH EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING BECOMING DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 4-7 MPH.
                    GUSTS 15 TO 20 MPH EARLY EVENING.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....BECOMING SOUTH 10 TO 15 MPH.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......9500 FT DECREASING TO 4800 FT AGL IN THE
                    EVENING THEN TO 500 FT AGL OVERNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 13 TO 21 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 10 MPH
                    EARLY IN THE MORNING.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (74000 KNOT-FT) DECREASING TO POOR (1800
                    KNOT-FT) AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....82-87.
MIN HUMIDITY........14-18 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST
                    AROUND 12 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS LATE IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTH 10 TO 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST
                    AROUND 20 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 13900 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 10 TO 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 20
                    TO 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (37200 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT
                    (253700 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.THURSDAY NIGHT...
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 MPH.
.FRIDAY...
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS AROUND 80. WINDS
8 TO 13 MPH.
.SATURDAY...
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.SUNDAY...
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...BRAUN
REQUESTED BY...TIDC
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20160719.WHITE.01/RIW



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