Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 291044
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
444 AM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SHIFT EAST LATE
TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NORTHERN UTAH SATURDAY...STALLING
ACROSS CENTRAL UTAH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THRU 00Z TUE)...THE RIDGE OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING HAS FLATTENED A LITTLE AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE THAT CROSSED
THE NRN ROCKIES OVERNIGHT MOVES OFF INTO THE NRN PLAINS. THE
TRAILING END OF THIS WEAK WAVE SET OFF A LITTLE CONVECTION OVER
NRN NV/SWRN ID OVERNIGHT AND EXPECT THIS AGAIN TODAY OVER THE NERN
MTNS.

THE RIDGE AXIS STARTS TO SHIFT E LATE TODAY AND CONVECTION IS ALSO
POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR NW AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE OUT AHEAD OF THE
MAIN PAC TROF STARTS TO IMPACT THE NRN GREAT BASIN. THIS FEATURE
KEEPS A THREAT OF HIGH BASED CONVECTION GOING OVER THE NRN CWA
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THRU EARLY SAT WITH A LULL SAT AFTN.

TEMPS TODAY SHOULD WARM AN ADDITIONAL 5 DEGREES OR SO FROM
YESTERDAY AS THE AIRMASS WARMS SOMEWHAT. WE OVERPERFORMED ON THE
HIGHS YESTERDAY SO EXPECT SLC TO REACH 90 TODAY AS ANY CLOUD COVER
LOOKS TO HOLD OFF TIL VERY LATE AFTN OR THIS EVE.

THE WAVE TONIGHT/EARLY SAT DOES INTRODUCE SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR
INTO THE NORTH BUT ALSO BRINGS GUSTY AFTN WINDS SO EXPECT LITTLE
CHANGE IN TEMPS SAT FROM TODAY ALL BUT THE FAR NORTH DUE TO
BETTER MIXING.

THE MAIN PORTION OF THE PAC TROF CROSSES THE NRN ROCKIES SAT NIGHT
SENDING A STRONGER COLD FRONT THRU NRN UT WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE
THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR NRN UT THIS WEEKEND IN A BAND ALONG
THE FRONT. THESE COULD LINGER INTO EARLY SUN OVER THE NERN CWA BUT
THE WAVE IS PAST BY MIDDAY AND EXPECT MOST OF THE DAY TO BE SUNNY
AND DRY. TEMPS WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES COOLER OVER THE NORTH BUT THE
COOLER AIR BARELY REACHES THE SOUTH SO EXPECT ONLY SLIGHT COOLING
THERE.

DRY STABLE NWLY FLOW THEN DOMINATES THE CWA SUN AFTN INTO MON.
SUN NIGHT WILL BE CLEAR AND COOL AND MON SHOULD BE SUNNY AND DRY
WITH SLIGHT WARMING.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z TUESDAY)...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL. A TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL CAUSE SOUTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE
OVER WESTERN VALLEYS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN FRIDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
NUDGING INTO EXTREME NORTHWEST UTAH. THE GLOBAL MODELS DIVERGE AT
THIS POINT ON THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE THAT GETS TAPPED AND BROUGHT
NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. THE EC TAPS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THEN THE
GFS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHICH SOLUTION TO FOLLOW BUT HAVE INCREASED
POPS A LITTLE OVER MAINLY EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...THE SLC TERMINAL WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST ABOUT
20-21Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER TODAY BUT WITH THAT
WARMTH A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY HIGH
BASED...WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHWEST CORNER AND THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. THE SOUTH WILL REMAIN DRY. ANOTHER TROUGH AND
ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. ALL
AREAS WILL SEE A WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK WITH ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY ALONG WITH
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DIPPING BELOW 15 PERCENT WESTERN
AND SOUTHEAST VALLEYS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WILENSKY
LONG TERM/FIRE WEATHER/AVIATION...STRUTHWOLF

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



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