Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

000
FXUS65 KSLC 142200
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
400 PM MDT Sun Apr 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Low pressure will track across Utah Monday. Valley
rain and mountain snow are forecast through the day. Conditions
will dry into Tuesday. Mainly dry conditions are likely much of
the week with a warming trend.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z Tuesday)...A trough and associated low
pressure positioned near the California and Nevada border has
brought gusty south to southwest winds for much of Utah. Peak
gusts have been in excess of 40 mph. Cold air advection from a
dry boundary ahead of the main trough pushed in early. Even with
stronger southerly flow, temperatures are around 10F cooler than
Saturday.

Clouds will increase through the evening as the trough approaches.
It will take a bit of time to saturate lower levels, but by late
Sunday into Monday, precipitation is likely for much of Utah.
Cyclogenesis as the low tracks into Utah will allow for
precipitation to fill in for much of the state through the
morning. The axis of the trough will slide to the east during the
afternoon. Shortwave energy sliding through on the west side of
the low will bring added lift for valley rain and mountain snow
to continue for southwest Wyoming and much of Utah into the
evening. Precipitation will taper off late, with mountain snow
showers into Tuesday.

Snow levels will be around 6000-6500 feet Monday, climbing to
around 7500 feet through the day. Snow accumulations will peak in
the Wasatch Mountains, especially south of I-80, with 8-16 inches
forecast. Further north, away from the low, much of the snow will
be with the shortwave pushing through behind the trough. Snowfall
for the central and southern mountains will range from roughly
6-12 inches. A Winter Weather Advisory starts early Monday for
most of Utah`s mountains.

Rainfall for the urban corridor will range from roughly 0.75-1.25
inches, with localized ponding likely.

.LONG TERM (After 12Z Tuesday)...An exiting low pressure on
Tuesday will help to keep northwest flow in place resulting in
some light orographic snow showers going across the central and
northern mountains Tuesday morning. Shortwave ridging will build
in during the day on Tuesday and bring an end to the
precipitation. For the remainder of the week, westerly zonal flow
will setup as a trough moves by to our north. This trough will
help keep temperatures near normal for northern Utah/SW Wyoming,
but ridging across the desert southwest will aid in above normal
temperatures and dry conditions for southern Utah. Some light
showers across the high terrain of the northern Utah mountains
can`t be ruled out given the proximity of the trough to our north,
but conditions will be primarily dry.

This trough will begin to shift further east later in the week
resulting in warming temperatures across northern Utah and a
reduction in mountain PoPs. Guidance becomes split on the weekend
weather pattern with ~60% of members indicating that ridging will
dominate with mostly dry conditions and warm temperatures, but ~40%
of members bring in a couple of shortwaves that would bring more
light precipitation to portions of the CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...Winds will likely shift more WSW this afternoon
before transitioning fully to northerly...though there is still
uncertainty in its exact timing. The most likely timing is currently
02-03z, though this could occur as early as 00z or as late as 04z.
Nearby showers developing after 02-03z could also make winds more
variable and erratic at times. VFR conditions will prevail until
moderate rainfall arrives after 12z, transitioning to MVFR
conditions. There is even a 40% chance of periods of IFR conditions
until 21z.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Gusty southerly winds will
continue this afternoon before broadly transitioning to
northwesterly this evening (westerly for far southern UT). Along
with northerly flow, expect valley rain/mountain snow to fill in
across most areas, especially after 12z Monday. The heaviest
precipitation will occur between roughly 12z-00z, with prevailing
MVFR conditions likely, and periodic IFR conditions
possible...especially for higher elevation sites like KEVW that
could receive snow. There is a 10-20% chance of thunder across
northern and central areas after 18z Monday, especially near and
across higher terrain.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 9 PM MDT Monday for UTZ111.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM to 9 PM MDT Monday for UTZ112-
     113-117-125.

WY...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wilson
LONG TERM...Mahan
AVIATION...Cunningham

For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity