Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 231159
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
600 AM MDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Saturday...There will be a strong moist southwest
flow aloft today and tonight which will bring precipitation to the
western mountains. A weather disturbance aloft will zip across
southern Canada tonight. The associated cold front will spread
south tonight and should bring scattered showers to the mountains of
southwest and central Montana with a slight chance of showers for
the southwest valleys. Downslope should keep the plains dry. Snow
levels over the western mountains will drop to near 6000 feet by
late tonight but by then precipitation will have diminished so any
significant snow should be confined to the higher mountains. Friday
afternoon an area of lift will develop over southwest Montana and
this lift will spread north Friday night. Moisture associated with
this lift will be primarily aloft with low levels remaining
on the dry side. Hence will keep the main threat for precipitation
confined to the mountains. Early Saturday an upper ridge will be
over western Montana and this ridge will shift into eastern
Montana during the afternoon. Meanwhile a deep upper trough will
be approaching the west coast. The main moisture with the upper
trough will stay to the west of Montana so expect a dry day.

As for the high wind watch tonight and Friday morning for the
Rocky Mountain Front..although winds will be strong aloft today
and tonight do not see a real good mechanism for bringing them to
the surface. In particular do not see an inversion above mountain
top level and the cold front tonight does not look very strong. In
addition models continue to be quite different on just how strong
winds aloft will be. Consequently confidence is not high enough to
turn the high wind watch to a warning but on the other hand
confidence that winds will not reach high wind criteria is not
high enough to drop the watch. Will have day shift take another
look. Blank

Saturday Night through Thursday...Models continue in good agreement
advertising another upper level low pressure trough moving in
Saturday night and Sunday while at the same time surface high
pressure over central Canada pushes some cooler air south into
Montana. Best chances for precipitation appear to be limited to the
west and southwest mountains, and temperatures will drop about 10
degrees Monday. As trough exits to the east Tuesday, weak high
pressure will build over the area, however, it appears several
smaller systems embedded in the flow will be working their way
through keeping skies mostly cloudy with cooler temperatures and
periods of gusty winds through the remainder of the period. Chances
of precipitation remain low. Next low pressure trough then expected
to move through late next week.



&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1200Z.
Approaching low pressure trough will displace the high pressure
ridge. VFR conditions are expected to prevail most areas for the
next 24 hours with mid-level BKN to OVC skies. Gusty west to
southwest winds are expected along the Rocky Mountain Front and
adjacent plains extending into central Montana and continuing
through the period. Rain showers will develop over the west and
southwest mountains decreasing some after 06z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  63  43  58  40 /  10  10  10  10
CTB  62  40  56  36 /  10  10  10  20
HLN  64  43  60  40 /  10  20  20  20
BZN  64  39  59  33 /  10  20  20  20
WEY  51  31  50  26 /  10  20  20  10
DLN  61  41  58  39 /  20  20  20  10
HVR  68  41  62  35 /  10  10   0  10
LWT  66  42  59  39 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH from this evening through Friday morning
Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

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