Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 061635
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
935 AM MST Fri Mar 6 2015

.UPDATE...

Today...High pressure continues to keep the air mass warm and dry.
Updated to raise most max temps for today and to bring hourly
forecast numbers more in line with observations. Otherwise,
forecast looks on track.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1135Z.
High pressure aloft will provide dry and stable conditions with only
high clouds moving across the area. Southwest to west surface winds
will increase and become gusty at times after 15z. The strongest
winds will be along the Rocky Mountain Front and adjacent plains.
VFR conditions prevail.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 435 AM MST Fri Mar 6 2015/

Today through Sunday...An upper level ridge of high pressure will
dominate the weather pattern through this period. The area will
remain dry with breezy westerly winds and mild temperatures for
most of the period. Today will be the windiest day of the period,
as a strong surface pressure gradient will bring strong winds to
the Rocky Mountain Front. Am only expecting wind gusts there to
top out at about 45 to 55 mph (so am not anticipating a need for a
High Wind Warning there), while the remainder of north central
Montana will get gusts in the 30 to 40 mph range. The only period
that could see a few showers is Saturday into Saturday evening. A
weak disturbance in the northwesterly flow aloft will drag a weak
frontal boundary south out of Canada, bringing a slight chance of
rain and mountain snow showers. Overall, the breezy downslope
winds will keep the area about 10 degrees warmer than normal
through the period. However, with the disturbance on Saturday,
temperatures then will be a few degrees cooler than the other
days, but not significantly cooler.
Coulston

Sunday night through Friday...Medium range models now in fairly
decent agreement. The period starts out mild and dry as a broad
upper ridge amplifies over the west coast and then moves east of
the Continental Divide Wednesday morning. The ridge flattens a
bit Wednesday afternoon as short wave energy moves through,
resulting in showers developing over the western mountains which
spread east over the plains Wednesday night and Thursday. By
Friday, the upper ridge rebuilds over western Montana with
isolated showers confined to the mountains. Later runs of the GFS
has resulted in warmer and drier conditions than earlier
versions. The GFS is now more in step with the European model
and, as a result, temperatures have been raised for the end of
the week. Afternoon readings for the period will be above
seasonal averages.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  58  31  53  30 /   0   0  20  10
CTB  55  28  50  27 /   0   0  20  10
HLN  56  33  55  32 /   0   0  10  10
BZN  57  26  54  27 /   0   0  10  10
WEY  42  12  44  13 /   0   0  10  10
DLN  55  29  56  28 /   0   0  10   0
HVR  59  25  50  24 /   0   0  20  10
LWT  50  29  48  28 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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