Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 260351
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
951 PM MDT Fri Jul 25 2014

.UPDATE...
Good radiational cooling conditions are expected in the southwest
valleys overnight so lowered lows slightly and in particular at
Helena and Bozeman. Logan Pass was still reporting high winds at 7
pm but other locations in the northern Rocky Mountain Front were
well below high wind criteria so have decided to extend the high
wind warning for the northern Rocky Mountain Front until 6 am mdt
but only for elevations above 6000 feet.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0351Z
High pressure will continue to provide dry and stable conditions.
Skies will remain clear. Surface winds will become breezy again
Saturday afternoon but weaken again quickly during the evening. VFR
conditions prevail.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The Red Flag Warning will continue in effect until Midnight for
Zones 113 and 115. Although winds have gradually diminished and
relative humidities are starting to recover...west to northwest
winds of 15 to 25 mph were still reported at 8 pm along with a few
areas of relative humidities at or below 20 percent.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 458 PM MDT Fri Jul 25 2014/

This Afternoon into Tonight... With wind gusts continuing around
60 mph across parts of the Rocky Mountain Front and considering
that diurnal mixing is at a maximum through 6 or 7 PM, decided to
extend the High Wind Warning for the Northern Rocky Mountain Front
through 9 PM MDT. The main area of concern will be Logan Pass
which has consistently been reporting gusts near 60 mph so far
this afternoon. The gusty winds should drop off rapidly after 7 or
8 PM as diurnal mixing wanes.

In addition to the breezy westerly winds, afternoon RH values
near 20 percent have lead to critical fire weather conditions for
Fire Zones 113 and 115. Thus, will continue the Red Flag Warning
until midnight across these zones. Similar conditions exist to the
west but fuels are not as dry/cured in this area so felt a Red
Flag Warning was not necessary.

Saturday through Sunday...An upper-level ridge will begin to
build over the Northern Rockies through the weekend yielding dry
and seasonally warm conditions as well as light winds. Although
mid-level winds become southwesterly on Sunday, models are in
agreement on keeping monsoonal moisture to the south of Montana.
Uttech

Sunday night through Friday...Montana will remain beneath an upper
level ridge for the entire forecast period. This pattern will lead
to mostly dry conditions with increasing temperatures through
mid-week as the ridge axis remains over the Northern Rocky
Mountains. Wild card in this pattern will be how much monsoonal
moisture will be able to work it`s way northward along the leading
edge of the ridge. Pattern suggests that isolated thunderstorm
activity could be possible in far Southwest Montana through much of
the period. However, the best chance for isolated convection to work
it`s way into Central Montana appears to be later in the week as
models depict a disturbance moving northward through the Great Basin
Wednesday and moving into Western Montana on Thursday. Confidence in
timing and coverage is low at this time, especially given the
strength of the upper ridge. Main impact during the upcoming week
will be the continued curing of fuels and the increasing likelihood
that despite the low chances for thunderstorm activity, any storms
that do form will be dry thereby increasing fire danger. mpj

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  49  80  51  85 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  47  77  48  84 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  51  83  55  90 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  40  81  46  87 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  33  75  37  79 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  43  80  48  85 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  51  79  52  86 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  49  78  51  84 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING until Midnight MDT tonight Blaine...Chouteau...
Fergus...Hill.

HIGH WIND WARNING until 6 AM MDT Saturday Northern Rocky
Mountain Front for elevations above 6000 feet.

&&

$$

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