Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS65 KTFX 050544
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1140 PM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.

.UPDATE...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. HIGH AND MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA,
SO ADJUSTED SKY COVER IN FORECAST FOR THAT. OTHERWISE, IT SHOULD
REMAIN DRY WITH LIGHT WINDS. LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN ON THE MILD
SIDE.  COULSTON

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0540Z.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH WITH LOWERING CIGS AS THE COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL MT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARMER UNSTABLE AIR AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, POSSIBLY AFFECTING KCTB/KHLN/KGTF TERMINALS. CONFIDENCE IS
LOWER ON HOW FAR EAST THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD BY
00UTC FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WITH MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN OR NEAR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. PN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 525 PM MDT WED MAY 4 2016/

TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...THOUGH HIGH CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AS SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT FROM AN UPPER TROF
ALONG THE WEST COAST CONTINUES TO DEEPEN. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROF SLOWLY PUSHES EAST. MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE A POSSIBILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS MODELS INDICATE AN
AIRMASS WITH A CAPE OF 500+ J/KG AND SHEAR 0F 35 KTS. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BY FRIDAY EVENING AND THE FRONT
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BRISK NORTH WINDS. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
END ACROSS THE NORTH FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH PARTIAL CLEARING.
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL REMAIN WARM AND ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES BUT NORTH WINDS FRIDAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW
AVERAGE.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...AS SHOWERS GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE
NORTH. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHWEST
THOUGH...POSSIBLY THROUGH SATURDAY AS WELL. ON SUNDAY...THE EC/GFS
START TO DIFFER A BIT ON THE TIMING OF THE FEATURES MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION. THUS POPS ARE GENERALLY LOW FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE EC ALSO SEEMS TO BE STRONGER WITH THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION WHEN COMPARED TO THE GFS. FOR NOW...KEPT THE CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION GENERALLY LOW FROM SUNDAY THRU WED...WITH QPF
EXPECTED TO BE CLOSER TO THE GFS. HOWEVER...ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL
WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION...THAT SNOW LEVELS COULD LOWER TO
5500 TO 6000 FEET BY TUESDAY MORNING. IN TERMS OF
TEMPERATURES...EXPECT A WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON SUNDAY...BUT
TEMPERATURES COOL OFF BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS FOR MON THRU
WED. BRUSDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  46  80  44  58 /   0  10  40  40
CTB  44  71  40  60 /  10  20  60  50
HLN  47  82  47  61 /   0  20  40  30
BZN  43  82  45  63 /   0  10  30  40
WEY  40  68  42  56 /   0  20  20  40
DLN  45  79  46  63 /  10  20  40  50
HVR  48  82  48  68 /   0   0  60  40
LWT  48  82  46  60 /   0  10  30  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.