Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 231716
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1116 AM MDT Mon Oct 23 2017

.DISCUSSION...(Today Through Sunday)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Mon Oct 23 2017

Low amplitude trough sits across the central to western CONUS with a
strong wave pushing across the northern Rockies into the northern
Plains. Surface low pressure is pushing across the upper Midwest
with the frontal boundary south of the CWA. Winds are gradually
increasing early this morning across the area...with gusts into the
40s and low 50s. Everything still looks on track as far as wind
headlines go today. Did expand High Wind Warning to include Zeibach
and Haakon counties per latest model guidance. Have also started the
headlines to begin at this time since winds are already into
advisory criteria across some locations including Rapid City. Highs
today will be in the 50s to low 60s...and are again expected
Tuesday. Breezy northwest winds are expected Tuesday...not nearly as
strong as today. Strong upper ridging will sit across the western
CONUS through Wednesday with continued dry weather. Much warmer air
will push in from the west Tuesday night with highs Wednesday
reaching the 70s to perhaps low 80s. Another breezy to windy day is
expected. A shortwave will push into the northern Plains late
Wednesday with a strong surface low developing near northern
Minnesota. Colder Canadian air will filter into the northern Plains
behind a strong cold front. Some showers will be possible Wednesday
night. Winds will increase behind the front...which may bring
another day of advisory criteria winds...or possibly stronger for
Thursday. Near to slightly cooler than average temps are expected
through the end of the week into the weekend along with dry
weather.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Tuesday)
Issued At 1111 AM MDT Mon Oct 23 2017

VFR conditions will continue through the period. Gusty northwest
winds will continue through this afternoon with frequent gusts
above 30kts everywhere and gusts around 50kts over the plains of
northwestern South Dakota. The winds will gradually diminish this
evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 300 AM MDT Mon Oct 23 2017

Above average temperatures are expected Wednesday ahead of a strong
cold front Wednesday night. Very low relative humidities and gusty
westerly winds will be possible, so will be watching Wednesday
closely for the potential for critical fire weather conditions. Very
gusty northwest winds are expected behind the cold front Wednesday
night and will continue into Thursday.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Wind Advisory until 6 PM MDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for SDZ025-
     026-030-042>044-046-047-049-072-074.

     High Wind Warning until 6 PM MDT this evening for SDZ001-002-
     012>014-031-032-073.

WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...10
FIRE WEATHER...13



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