840
FXUS65 KVEF 021949
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1249 PM PDT Wed Jul 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Widespread showers and thunderstorms are will continue through the
  evening as a low pressure system moves through. Sudden strong wind
  gusts will again be a concern.

* Drier conditions resume by Friday with a warming trend heading
  into next week.

* Breezy conditions and low humidity will lead to elevated fire
  danger for the 4th of July.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Today through the Middle of Next Week.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop across
the region and stream north through the day. The forecast for day
remains on track from previous thinking with no significant chances
in the expected impacts and thunderstorm areas. Instability
increases this afternoon with CAPE over 500-1000 J/Kg developing
across southern Nevada and western Arizona. This combined with upper
level forcing with an incoming upper level low will result in more
widespread and organized thunderstorms versus yesterday. PWATs have
increased in the past 24 hours, which inherently would decrease the
wind threat compared to yesterday. However, yesterday`s set up
lacked instability and organized thunderstorm structure, so even
though low levels have moistened per the 12Z Las Vegas sounding,
there is still an inverted-V signature on the sounding and added
instability means there is still a threat for sudden gusty downburst
winds today. HREF has a high chance (70%) for wind gusts over 40 MPH
with areawide thunderstorms, and a low chance for wind gusts up to
60 MPH centered over southern Nevada. In addition today, with
increased moisture and training thunderstorms, heavy rain and
isolated flash flooding is possible. The highest risk for heavy
rain should be in northern Mohave County where better moisture and
instability overlap as well as far southern Clark County where HRRR
model radar output suggests training storms. As instability wanes
after sunset, precipitation will also diminish. The latest HRRR runs
does hang on to precipitation through much of the night in Mohave
County which is the outlier compared to other hi-res model runs.
However, the HRRR solution does have some meteorological support as
the upper level low will be moving into Nevada and increased forcing
could allow for additional overnight develop. Later shifts will need
to monitor trends as a solution like the HRRR would result in
continued heavy rain and isolated lash flood threat overnight.

As the low moves eastward and weakens Thursday, drier air will
gradually work east. This will result in some lingering activity
Thursday afternoon across Mohave County and perhaps Lincoln and
Clark Counties. Thunderstorms on Thursday could produce sudden gusty
winds but the threat would be lower and more isolated than today.
Drier air will sweep through area wide by Friday with temperatures
hovering near to slightly below normal over the weekend before a
warming trend begins next week.

Thunderstorm activity will trend wetter today which should limit the
coverage of Dry lightning, though western areas of the Great Basin
and parts of the Mojave Desert may still see relatively little
rainfall with the storms. Nonetheless, surface dewpoints will keep
minimum RH values elevated and help to improve the fire danger
somewhat. However, breezy southwesterly winds on Friday will return
with much drier air pushing in, and will result in elevated fire
danger Friday, just in time for the 4th of July.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 18Z Forecast
Package...Convection will continue to impact the terminals and
surrounding region today. Thunderstorm activity will be higher and
more widespread compared to yesterday with scattered convection at
times through all corridors and jet routes. Lightning, sudden gusty
winds, brief heavy rain, and CIGs to 7000ft are possible with
thunderstorms today, with the highest risk for impacts between 21Z
and 01Z. Convection will wane after sunset with precipitation ending
by 06Z. After a dry night, additional showers and thunderstorms will
develop Thursday afternoon. Thunderstorms on Thursday should be more
isolated than today but could still produce lightning, gusty outflow
winds, brief heavy rain, and CIGs below 10kft. Outside of convective
influences, winds this afternoon will be east to southeast,
occasionally gusting to 20KT. Winds will diminish tonight and follow
typical wind trends. Southeast winds will increase again Thursday
afternoon but will be a bit lower than today.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected across the region through this evening.
Convection may produce sudden gusty winds and patchy blowing dust
with visibility reductions, with the greatest confidence in storms
impacting southern Nevada. Thunderstorms are possible at KBIH, the
Las Vega Valley TAF sites, and KIFP, with a low risk for
thunderstorms at KEED. KDAG should remain dry. Thunderstorm impacts
today include lightning, sudden gusty winds, heavy rain, and CIGs to
7000ft. Convection will wane after sunset with precipitation ending
by 06Z and a dry night is expected. Outside of convection, winds
will be breezy with gusts to 15-25KT expected, with stronger gusts
to around 30kt expected through the Owens Valley and across the
Western Mojave. Overnight, winds will diminish and settle out of
typical diurnal patterns.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION...Nickerson


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