Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 102321 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
421 PM MST Sun Dec 10 2017

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours. High clouds will
continue to stream across the southern half or so of NM through
Monday. A northerly drainage wind at KSAF is expected by sunrise
Monday and will persist thru approximately 18Z. Gusts near 25 or 30kt
are possible.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...210 PM MST Sun Dec 10 2017...
.SYNOPSIS...
A ridge of high pressure centered over the western United States
will allow mild and dry weather to persist over New Mexico this week.
The only real notable weather will be thick high clouds moving east
across the southern half of the state tonight and Monday. A weak back
door cold front will slide into eastern New mexico Monday then again
Wednesday. Despite these weak fronts temperatures will remain above
normal. A stronger cold front will move into the region Thursday and
cool temperatures closer to normal. Extended model guidance is still
indicating a pattern change to cooler weather around next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Persistence rules the ongoing forecast with only minor changes
advertised on recent model guidance. The most notable weather will
be a veil of high clouds shifting east across the southern half of
the forecast area tonight and Monday. This will limit the strength
of midslope inversions below cloud cover tonight and perhaps impact
high temps a couple degrees tomorrow. Otherwise, similar temps are
expected elsewhere tonight with strong inversions.

High pressure centered over the Great Basin will retrograde into the
eastern Pacific through Wednesday and Thursday. Exceptionally dry
air in association with this ridge will force surface humidity below
15% each afternoon thru Wednesday. Diurnal temperature swings will
remain large with strong overnight inversions and high temps near 10F
above normal. Weak back door cold fronts Monday and Wednesday will
cool temps a few degrees in the east but it will still be above
normal.

A stronger cold front is anticipated Thursday as an upper level wave
moves southeast thru the central Rockies. This front will only trend
temps closer to normal for mid-December. Extended guidance is still
hinting the northwest flow pattern will begin buckling and force a
series of weak upper waves through the southern Rockies starting
next weekend. This may eventually lead to a much needed pattern change
around Dec.20th.

Guyer

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Ongoing forecast remains on track with no significant changes made
with this package. Overnight inversions will result in poor to very
poor humidity recoveries, particularly within the higher terrain. A
weak boundary will invade the eastern zones for Monday, but this
should not significantly impact temperatures. In fact, readings for
the entire CWA will remain well above normal through Wednesday with
poor to locally fair ventilation rates.

A backdoor front on Wednesday will traverse the eastern plains of
NM, with a reinforcing surge of cold air advection anticipated for
Thursday. This will temporarily drop high temps about ten degrees,
or closer to normal. Ventilation rates will improve slightly later
in the week as the rex block pattern across the western U.S. breaks
down, resulting in northwest flow aloft. Even with this change, the
hope for wetting precipitation during the next ten days is looking
pretty bleak. DPorter

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$



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