Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 282345 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
545 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER WRN NEBRASKA WITH MAINLY DRY NWLY
FLOW ALOFT OVER NM. ISOLD -TSRA WILL CONTINUE OVER FAR NE PLAINS
EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE MOVING EAST INTO TX BY ABOUT SUNSET.
DRY NW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH ONLY A
FEW...WEAK AND HIGH BASED -SHRAS/-TSRAS OVER NRN MOUNTAINS DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...318 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE EVENING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO.
ELSEWHERE...DRY AND OCCASIONALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
MORE BREEZES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND...THOUGH SUNDAY WILL BE
THE BREEZIER OF THE TWO DAYS. LESS WIND AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY TO MID WEEK PERIOD. HOWEVER...
ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE MAY RETURN LATE NEXT WEEK. UNTIL
THEN...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MUCH QUIETER PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SOME
ENERGY CONTINUES TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IN NE NM THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS IS ALLOWING FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...BUT
MUCH DRIER MID LEVEL AIR IS RACING IN FROM THE WEST...PUTTING A LID
ON STORMS DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE. SOME BREEZIER CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN
NOTED TODAY...WITH A GUST TO 41KT AT KCQC BEING THE HIGHEST THUS
FAR.  BACK DOOR FRONT/BOUNDARY CURRENTLY NEAR THE UNION/QUAY CO
BORDER TO JUST SOUTH OF KLVS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD
TONIGHT...BRIEFLY REPLENISHING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
PLAINS.

LONGWAVE TROUGH PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR
CONTINUED DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A BIT
BREEZIER THAN SATURDAY ACROSS THE NE. STORM CHANCES CONTINUE TO
DECREASE...WITH ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE EAST POSSIBLE
SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.

NOT A LOT OF CHANGE TO THE MONDAY THRU WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD. WEAK
UPPER HIGH ELONGATED SOUTH OF NM...ALLOWING FOR WEAK WESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE CWA. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE...THOUGH
THERE WILL BE BOUTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRYING TO CREEP NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE PLAINS. ANY ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE ISOLATED AT BEST.

ANOTHER SURGE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE MAY COME LATE NEXT WEEK AS
ANOTHER TROUGH DIVES DOWN THE WESTERN CONUS.

34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SLOWLY LIFTING OUT OF THE AREA...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER
SOUTHERN CA. RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND TRAILING UPPER LEVEL WAVES ARE
KICKING OFF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER NE NM. STORMS TODAY WILL
GENERALLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET...WITH SIGNIFICANT CLOUD CLEARING
EXPECTED THEREAFTER. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY ACROSS NE NM
WILL PUSH SOUTH OVERNIGHT...WITH ONLY WIND DIRECTION AND MINOR WIND
SPEED INCREASES EXPECTED. THE INCOMING DRY AIR WILL CAUSE BIG DROPS
IN OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES...PRIMARILY ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
AREAS. SMALLER DIPS IN RH RECOVERIES IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

A POST TROUGH INVERSION WILL SETUP FRIDAY AS WINDS WEAKEN ALOFT AND
MIXING HEIGHTS DROP. THIS WILL RESULT IN MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SEEING FAIR TO POOR VENT RATES. A DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST...CAUSING STORMS TO BE LIMITED PRIMARILY OVER THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS. THE FOOTPRINT
OF WETTING RAIN WILL BE LIMITED. EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS TO WARM TO
NEAR NORMAL VALUES AND AFTERNOON RH READINGS TO DECREASE.

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT A WEAK RIDGE BREAKDOWN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH GETS DISPLACED FARTHER
SOUTH BY A PASSING TROUGH. WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE SATURDAY AND
AGAIN SUNDAY WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE. A SURFACE LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL
BEGIN DEVELOPING SATURDAY AND DEEPEN SUNDAY...WHICH COMBINED WITH
INCREASED WINDS ALOFT...WILL CREATE BREEZIER SOUTHWEST WINDS EACH
DAY. INCREASED MIXING WILL BRING DRIER AIR TO THE SURFACE...CAUSING
MIN RH VALUES TO TREND DOWN EACH DAY. A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE
WX CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP SUNDAY ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST PLAINS DUE TO THE STRONGER WINDS...LOW RH...AND ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL CAUSE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SANGRES SATURDAY BEFORE STORM ACTIVITY
DISAPPEARS SUNDAY.

CURRENTLY...MODELS ARE STARTING TO SHOW SOME AGREEMENT IN THE
OVERALL PATTERN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE AREA OF BROAD UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF NM WILL REMAIN IN TACT MONDAY...KEEPING THE
DRY AIR IN PLACE WITH NO STORM CHANCES. WINDS ALOFT WILL ALSO WEAKEN
AND VENT RATES WILL TREND DOWN SLIGHTLY. FROM THERE...THE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST AND BEGIN BRINGING MID LEVEL
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...TIMING ON THIS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFT AND TAP INTO MOISTURE IS STILL UNCLEAR. IN GENERAL...THE ECMWF
SOLUTION IS MORE BULLISH ON SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RETURNING TO THE
AREA SOONER THAN THE GFS. CURRENT THOUGHT BELIEVES TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ON DRIER SIDE...WHICH COULD LEAD TO STRONGER
DOWNDRAFT WINDS AND LESS WETTING PRECIP...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO
LOW FOR THIS MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

24

$$

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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