Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 081200 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
600 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 558 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

EXTENDED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON ACROSS THE EAST DUE TO
EXPECTANT WINDS...LIGHT SNOW ALONG WITH SOME BLOWING SNOW
REMAINING.

12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...ON THE BACK SIDE
OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. VSBY AND WEB CAMS HAVE LARGELY BEEN OK
LOOKING WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. BUT AT TIMES...VSBY IS BEING
KNOCKED DOWN SOMEWHAT WITH HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. WILL GO AHEAD AND
LET THE WINTER WX ADVISORY RUN THROUGH 12Z AND LIKELY LET IT EXPIRE
AT THAT TIME. MAY NEED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY TO REPLACE IT AT 12Z
AS WINDS ARE STILL PRETTY STRONG OVER THE GLACIAL LAKES REGION AND I-
29 CORRIDOR OF NORTHEAST SD.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE A STRENGTHENING BAROCLINIC ZONE
ACROSS THE REGION AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BRING SOME COLDER
AIR SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. MEANWHILE...WARMER AIR WILL
HOLD STRONG OVER WESTERN SD. MODELS STILL TRYING TO SHOW SOME LIGHT
SNOW POTENTIAL ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. FOR
NOW HAVE JUST SLIGHT CHANCES OVER CENTRAL SD TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. NOTHING IN THERE FOR WEDNESDAY JUST YET BUT THE EC AND GFS
ARE HINTING AS SOMETHING SO CHANCES MAY NEED TO BE INSERTED IF 12Z
RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW LIGHT SNOW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
WESTERN US WITH A LARGE EASTERN US TROUGH. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PUT
OUR REGION UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW WITH A GOOD CONTRAST IN TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE CWA. HIGHS FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE MID TO UPPER TEENS IN THE FAR EASTERN CWA TO THE LOWER TO
MID 30S FAR WEST. THE MODELS ALSO SHOW DECENT MEAN RH THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. THUS...THERE SHOULD BE QUITE A BIT OF MID AND UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING OVER THE REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OUT WEST
THEN PUSHES EAST WITH HEIGHTS BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL US. AS A
RESULT...WARMER AIR WILL PUSH ACROSS THE CWA WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN
THE 30S AND LOWER 40S. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO ALSO SHOW A COUPLE
SHORT WAVES COMING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH ONE
ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE OTHER ONE FOR SUNDAY. EACH WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WITH NOT MUCH ACCUMULATION WITH EITHER ONE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 558 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

LOW VFR/MVFR CEILINGS ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW WILL AFFECT ABR AND ATY
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH VISIBILITIES DOWN TO LESS THAN 3
MILES AT TIMES. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN UP THROUGH THE DAY
IN THE 15 TO 30 KNOT RANGE BEFORE FALLING OFF AT ALL LOCATIONS THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE STRATUS CLOUDS WILL MOVE EAST WITH
CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR. PIR AND MBG ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING
OVER.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR SDZ008-020>023.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR


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