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000
FXUS63 KABR 261946
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
246 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

NOT A WHOLE LOT TO TALK ABOUT FOR THIS FORECAST. TEMPERATURES ARE
THE MAIN CHALLENGE. COMPACT MID LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES IN THE NEXT DAY
OR SO...WITH HEIGHTS SLOWLY REBOUNDING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
FOR TNT DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER SOUTH OVER THE REGION BUT
WINDS WILL KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED UP ENOUGH SUCH THAT LOWS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO CHILLY. HOWEVER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
WILL TURN A BIT CHILLY UNDER A SFC HIGH AND LITTLE TO NO WIND. FOR
SUNDAY FULLY EXPECT SC/CU TO FORM BY LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON UNDER STEEP LAPSE RATES/COLD AIR ALOFT.
MIGHT EVEN BE ABLE TO SNEAK OUT A ROGUE SHOWER OVER THE NORTHEAST
CWA SO WILL LEAVE LOW POPS IN PLACE FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DEEP
MIXING WILL ALSO PROMOTE AT LEAST BREEZY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND AGAIN MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE SIMILAR...ALTHOUGH
A BIT MORE CLOUDINESS COULD AFFECT HIGHS MORE ON SUNDAY DESPITE
DEEP MIXING LAYER.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT IN THE EXTENDED GRIDS. POSITIVE PNA
PATTERN REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE CONUS...WITH CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE NATIONS MID SECTION. WITH
NEUTRAL TEMP ADVECTION...LOOK FOR HIGHS TO BE NEAR CLIMO NORMALS
WITH LITTLE WIND UNDER THE HIGH. THE ECMWF SHOWS SOME MINOR 700HPA
WAVES DROPPING SOUTH IN THE NW FLOW THAT COULD SPARK UP A FEW
MINOR SHOWERS/SPRINKLES...BUT NOWHERE NEAR WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO
MAKE A MENTION OF ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDS EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINAL LOCATIONS THROUGH VALID FCST
PERIOD. UPPER LOW ALONG ND/CANADIAN BORDER IS EXPECTED TO DROP
SOUTHEAST THROUGH PERIOD. SCT-BKN050-070 CLOUDS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE KMBG/KABR/KATY TERMINALS AFT 12Z SUNDAY. ALSO LOOK FOR
BREEZY CONDS TO SET UP FOR ALL TERMINALS AFT 12Z SUNDAY WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...HINTZ
AVIATION...HINTZ

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN