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000
FXUS63 KABR 100126 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
826 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD...AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST. STILL WATCHING SMOKE FROM CANADA STREAM SOUTH INTO OUR CWA.
KMBG CONTINUES TO SHOW VISIBILITY REDUCED TO AROUND 5 MILES...BUT
AS THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION MENTIONED...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
WILL CHANGE...AND SMOKE TRANSPORT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO WELL NORTH
OF THIS REGION BY THURSDAY.

SEE THE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
SWATH OF SMOKE STILL NOTED ON VIS SATELLITE FROM NORTHWEST ND
THROUGH SOUTHEAST SD. IT HAS ACTUALLY CAUSED SOME SLIGHT VSBY
ISSUES WITH 4SM TO 6SM TYPE VSBYS FROM HON UP THROUGH BIS AND ON
INTO NORTHWEST ND. EXPECTING THIS TO BECOME A THING OF THE PAST
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS UPPER LEVEL WIND PATTERN CHANGES.

SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT ALLOWING SOUTHERLY SFC
FLOW TO DEVELOP. SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY ON THURSDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING SFC
TROUGH. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BE ON THE RISE. VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE
ALOFT CROSSES THE REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND MAY PROVIDE FOR
SOME SCT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL
LIKELY BE THURSDAY EVENING AS SFC TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA. LOW
LEVEL JET ALSO INCREASES THURSDAY NIGHT BUT MODELS ARE SHOWING
NOSE OF JET AFFECTING MORE OF SOUTHEAST SD INTO SOUTHERN MN.
CONSTRUCTED POP GRIDS SO HIGHEST CHANCES ARE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH SOUTHERN CWA TOMORROW NIGHT.

MODELS ARE NOW IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN PUSHING THE SFC FRONT
FURTHER SOUTH AND THROUGH THE CWA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS SFC HIGH
BUILDS IN. THIS SHOULD REALLY LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. KEPT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE EAST
FRIDAY MORNING BUT REMOVED POPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS FRONT LOOKS TO
CLEAR THE CWA TO THE SOUTH BY THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO SHOW MAINLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE CWA....ESPECIALLY FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EARLY
ON...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH.
THUS...KEPT WITH THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGHS ON BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY
IN THE 80S ACROSS THE CWA. THEN THE MODELS AGREE WELL WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AN INTENSE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA OFF TO OUR
NORTHEAST IN SOUTHERN CANADA/GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL THEN
MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THUS...A STRONG CANADIAN COLD FRONT
WILL DROP ACROSS OUR REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN BEHIND. THIS COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 70S
FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND IT IS LIKELY SOME LOCATIONS IN
THE EAST MAY MAKE IT ONLY INTO THE UPPER 60S ON TUESDAY. MONDAY
AND EVEN INTO TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO ALSO BE BREEZY/WINDY ACROSS
THE CWA. AFTER SUNDAY...THE REST OF THE LONG TERM IS EXPECTED TO
BE DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWLY SLIDING EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT...WHILE
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WINDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF SOUTH DAKOTA HAVE ALREADY SWITCHED AROUND TO THE
SOUTHEAST...AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL FOLLOW SUITE TONIGHT.
SMOKE REMAINS A SLIGHT CONCERN THROUGH THE NIGHT. VSBYS MAY BE
REDUCED TO 4 OR 5 MILES AT KMBG...BUT AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
CHANGES...THE TRANSPORT OF SMOKE SHOULD SHIFT FURTHER EAST...AND
THEN LIKELY BE CUT OFF ALTOGETHER ON THURSDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...SERR
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...SERR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN