Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 211047

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
247 AM AKDT Thu Sep 21 2017

The 00z model suite initialized well against the 00z surface
analysis and verified well against the 06z surface analysis. Model
spread remains minimal in the short range and reasonable in the
mid range. Model spread increases to expected levels in the long

Aloft at 500 hpa, a 542 dm low over Norton Sound anchors a long
wave trough over the west coast and eastern Bering Sea and will
drift southwest over Nunivak Island and then Bristol Bay through
Saturday as ridging builds north over the central and eastern
interior. The upper level ridge over the Eastern interior weakens
Sunday as a shortwave rotating around the upper level over Bristol
Bay rotates north into the southern interior Sunday afternoon.

On the surface a 1030 mb high stretching from Banks Island to near
Barrow will drift north as a 1014 mb low develops over the
northern Yukon and deepens to 1008 mb as it drifts to near the
McKenzie Delta through Sunday morning. A 996 mb low 200 nm south
of Adak currently extends northeast as a series of lows along the
Aleutians. The series of lows will drift northeast along the
Aleutian chain to southern Alaska through Sunday As the series of
lows continue to move northeast into the southern interior a tight
gradient will develop between the lows emerging in the southern
interior and the high pressure system stretching along the eastern
north slope. Expect gusty northeast to east winds to develop
Friday and continue through Sunday over summits and higher terrain
as well as channeled terrain in the interior.

The series of lows will also bring scattered rain showers over
the lower elevations of the interior and scattered snow showers
above 3500 feet in the southern interior and above 2000 feet in
the northern interior.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.


.HYDROLOGY...Rivers running high, but slowly falling. Rivers will
remain high through rest of the week.


Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ225-PKZ230.


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