Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 062117
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
117 PM AKDT MON JUL 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND VERIFIED WELL OFF OF THE 12Z AND 18Z
ANALYSIS. MODEL SPREAD REMAINS LOW IN THE SHORT TERM AND MID TERM
AND EXHIBITS EXPECTED LEVELS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED RANGE.

HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG A WAINWRIGHT TO
YAKUTAT LINE WILL CONTINUE TO RECEED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE HIGH CANADIAN ARCTIC DIVES TO THE SOUTH TO
BE LOCATED NEAR BANKS ISLAND TUESDAY MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH AND WEST INTO THE CENTRAL
BERING SEA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A COL DEVELOPS ALONG A BARROW TO
EAGLE LINE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL DRIFT SOUTHWEST TO BE ALONG
A WAINWRIGHT TO EAGLE LINE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

ON THE SURFACE A FRONT EXTENDS EAST AND SOUTH EAST ALONG THE
LOWER YK DELTA AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH AND EAST BRINING
WETTING RAINS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WEST OF MCGRATH AND
SOUTH OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA. THE AREA OF WETTING RAINS MOVES TO
THE NORTH TUESDAY TO COVER THOSE AREAS WEST OF TANANA AND AS FAR
NORTH AS THE BROOKS RANGE WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
THE EAST ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE AND SOUTH OF
FAIRBANKS. WETTING RAINS WILL RESUME AS THE FRONT MOVES NORTH AND
EAST OF FAIRBANKS AS CHINOOK INFLUENCE DIMINISHES. EXPECT ISOLATED
THUNDER STORMS FROM FAIRBANKS EAST AND FROM THE ALASKA RANGE NORTH
TO THE BROOKS RANGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MONITOR SMALL
STREAMS ALONG THE SOUTH FACES OF THE BROOKS RANGE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WHERE 48 HOUR QPF TOTALS ADD UP TO 1 TO 2 INCHES. GOOD
WETTING RAINS AND COOLER TEMPERATURE WILL AID FIRE FIGHTING
EFFORTS OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ONGOING RED FLAGS FOR STRONG WINDS IN ZONES 223...225 AND 226 WILL
CONTINUE PAST MIDNIGHT AS WINDS THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES
CONTINUE. MIN RH VALUES HAVE NOT DROPPED BELOW 30 PERCENT HOWEVER
THEY WILL BE CLOSE IN LOCAL AREAS THIS EVENING IN THESE AREAS.
WETTING RAINS EXPECTED WEST OF FAIRBANKS AND WILL AID IN FIRE
FIGHTING EFFORTS. ONGOING DENSE SMOKE ADVISORIES IN ZONES
207...208...209...216...217...219 AND 221 WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE TUESDAY AS WETTING RAINS MOVE INTO THE AREA. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF FAIRBANKS AND NORTH OF THE
ALASKA RANGE AND SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR SMALL STREAM RISES ALONG THE SOUTH SLOPES OF
THE BROOKS RANGE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG FRONT EXPECTED
TO DROP 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN. MAIN STEM RIVERS IN THESE AREAS
REMAIN LOW AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE EXPECTED RAIN.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FOR AKZ223-AKZ225-AKZ226.

DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY FOR AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ209-AKZ216-AKZ217-
AKZ219-AKZ221.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ225-PKZ230.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

$$

CCC JUL 15



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