Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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181
FXAK69 PAFG 292042
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1242 PM AKDT Wed Mar 29 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Aloft, at 500 hpa a long wave trough currently over the western
interior will continue to move to the west and will be located
over the Seward Peninsula Thursday and the easter Bering Sea
Friday. As the longwave trough moves to the west a ridge builds
west out of western Canada and the Yukon over the eastern and
central interior Friday. A series of shortwaves will move north
along the back of the ridge moving over the eastern and central
interior through the weekend with the first shortwave currently
along the gulf of Alaska coast moving north over the Alaska Range
and into the interior tonight and another shortwave moving north
over the Alaska Range and into the interior Friday night.

An old front over the western interior will be the focal point for
snow over the central and northern interior where 3 to 5 inches
of snow are expected through mid day Thursday. The heaviest snow
will fall along a Bettles to Denali National Park line with
lighter amounts falling over Galena an McGrath to the west and
Fairbanks to the east.

The eastern interior and the central interior south and east of
Fairbanks will remain in the chinook shadow with persistent
downslope flow with the first shortwave limiting snowfall. The
pressure gradient increases Friday afternoon along the Alaska
Range and as a weak mountain wave sets up gusty winds will develop
not only through the Alaska Range passes but also along the north
slopes of the Alaska Range Friday afternoon and continue through
Saturday morning. High temperatures will rise into the upper 30s
and lower 40s over much of the central and eastern interior with
moderate chinook flow Friday and through the weekend.

The 12z model suite initialized well against the 12 surface
analysis and verified well against the 18z surface analysis. Model
spread remains reasonable in the short and mid range but increases
significantly in the long range.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ221.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ220.
&&

$$

CCC MAR 17



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