Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 272246
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
246 PM AKDT Sat May 27 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Synoptic scale features continue to perform pretty much as
earlier advertised. The old trough aloft from about Wrangel
Island to Cape Newenham to the vertically stacked 1005 mb low
southeast of Cold Bay will continue to weaken without filling
entirely. The aforementioned low will move northeast toward
Kodiak Island tonight then turn north on Sunday, moving over
our Western Interior on Monday. The weak (thermal) trough that
has developed over Interior Alaska will gradually strengthen,
likely becoming particularly enhanced as it gets better support
aloft on Monday, though the models remain unenthusiastic about a
corresponding increase in the gap winds through Alaska Range
passes.

High pressure will continue to build over the Beaufort Sea. As
often happens this time of year, much of the pressure gradient
between the developing ridge and the thermal low will be
found over our Arctic Coast, and will be strongest in the east.
Expect brisk winds to develop east of Kaktovik Sunday morning,
with winds as far west as Cape Halkett trending up through Monday.

The area of moderate convective instability that appeared over
our Western Interior on Friday is in about the same place today
and a bit stronger. Expect the best action from just west of 160W
to about 100 miles east of 160W from the Brooks Range south.
Little potential in areas with strong maritime influence. There
is also some potential over the Brooks range as far east as
Arctic Village. The best convective potential will likely be
in the Upper Noatak Valley and western Brooks Range on Sunday,
with maybe some late bloomers in our Lower Yukon Valley.

The models diverge fairly early in the mid-range. One discrepancy
of interest in our southeast Interior: the GFS would have 850 mb
temperatures around +11 C Thursday afternoon (implying surface
temperatures a tad too warm for those of us who are adapted to
sub-arctic conditions), while the ECMF and Canadian GEM models
are about 6 degrees C cooler at that time, though they have
comparable temperatures in the Canadian Yukon. Don`t bet the
farm on the GFS, though it is showing pretty good run to run
continuity.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Wind and RH near flag criteria in portions of zones 223 and 226
this evening, but likely falling a bit short.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No issues.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Brisk Wind Advisory for PZK245 Sunday.


&&

$$

DJH MAY 17



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