Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 292344 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
644 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.AVIATION...
LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL TREND FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING...AND ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SOUTHWEST BY SUNRISE.  GENERALLY
CLEAR SKY EXPECTED THIS EVENING...WITH MID-LEVEL BROKEN TO OVERCAST
LAYER DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT.  NO OVERNIGHT FOG OR BR EXPECTED.

SOUTH SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 20 KT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS HIGH-BASED CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOP.  ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT LOCATION AND TIMING OF DEVELOPMENT REMAINS TOO
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE THUNDER IN FORECAST.  VFR FORECAST
CONTINUES NEXT 24 HOURS.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SOME LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL EXIST OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA
OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BUT OVERALL PREDOMINANTLY DRY AND WARM
WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE NEXT WEEK.

THE UPPER TROUGH THAT TRIGGERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN
PANHANDLES YESTERDAY HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA...WITH WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWING SOME PRONOUNCED DRYING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS TODAY. MUCH DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR HAS ADVECTED SOUTHEAST INTO
THE AREA AS WELL BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. THIS DRYING SHOULD KEEP
THINGS QUIET TONIGHT. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF A FEW SPRINKLES OR A
LIGHT SHOWER ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN PANHANDLES LATE TONIGHT AS THE
LFQ OF AN UPPER JET STREAK AND A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME H85 THETA-E ADVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LLJ. HOWEVER...VERY MEAGER INSTABILITY AND A
DRY AIRMASS BELOW 650 MB WILL MAKE IT TOUGH FOR ANY PRECIP TO REACH
THE GROUND...AND JUST AN INCREASE IN MID-CLOUDS IS THE MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO.

SOME WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WILL EXIST ACROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY DOWNSTREAM OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
THIS...ALONG WITH STRONG DIURNAL HEATING...MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO
TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BACK UP FOR
THE START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS A LEE TROUGH REDEVELOPS BENEATH
THE STRONGER CROSS-MOUNTAIN FLOW ALOFT...BRINGING A RETURN OF
SOUTHERLY BREEZES. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE 90S AREA WIDE.

THE UPPER TROUGH AND FAIRLY STRONG ACCOMPANYING UPPER JET WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS ON
SUNDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OVER SOUTHEAST CO AND
SOUTHWEST KS IN RESPONSE...ALLOWING A DRYLINE TO SHARPEN UP OVER THE
EASTERN PANHANDLES. THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHETHER ANY CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE AS THE BETTER UPPER DYNAMICS REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH. DO BELIEVE HOWEVER THAT AT LEAST A COUPLE OF ISOLATED STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG IT GIVEN SOME GLANCING UPPER FORCING TO THE
NORTH AND STRONG DIURNAL HEATING /AS H85 TEMPS CLIMB TO 30C+ TO ITS
WEST/. IF ANY STORMS DO DEVELOP...THEY COULD BE SEVERE GIVEN MODEST
INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASING TO AROUND 40 KTS. THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES SUNDAY
EVENING...PROVIDING A BETTER TRIGGER FOR SOME STORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST ZONES. THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS LIKELY HITTING THE CENTURY MARK ACROSS THE OK PANHANDLE AND
WESTERN TX PANHANDLE.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY RETREAT NORTH ON MONDAY...SO LABOR
DAY WILL STILL BE QUITE WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S. THERE WILL BE A
DIFFUSE DRYLINE IN PLACE STILL...BUT CHANCES FOR ANY CONVECTION
INITIATING APPEAR VERY LOW. WE COULD SEE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION
DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PANHANDLES MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE FRONT
NEARBY /GETTING NUDGED BACK SOUTH BY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PASSING WELL
TO OUR NORTH/ AND SOME ENHANCED THETA-E ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT
WITH THE NOCTURNAL LLJ.

LOOKING AHEAD TOWARD THE MIDDLE AND LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK...THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD BACK NORTH AND WEST...CAUSING
A TRANSITION FROM ZONAL TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS MAY DRAW IN ENOUGH
MONSOON MOISTURE BY LATE WEEK TO SUPPORT A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PANHANDLES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS A
LITTLE TOO LOW TO ADD ANY PRECIP MENTION JUST YET. IT WILL REMAIN
WARM WITH HIGHS REMAINING SOLIDLY IN THE 90S.

KB

FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL BELOW 20 PERCENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLES SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND BREEZY SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS /15-25 MPH/ WILL OVERLAP THESE DRIER CONDITIONS ON
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...FUELS STILL REMAIN UNSUPPORTIVE OF ENHANCED
WILDLAND FIRE POTENTIAL...THUS NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.

KB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                63  92  66  95  67 /   5  20  20  10  10
BEAVER OK                  62  96  67 100  66 /   5  20  20  20  20
BOISE CITY OK              59  92  63  96  60 /  10  20  20   5  10
BORGER TX                  66  95  71  98  69 /   5  20  20  10  10
BOYS RANCH TX              64  94  67  99  66 /   5  20  20   5  10
CANYON TX                  62  92  67  96  67 /   5  20  20   5  10
CLARENDON TX               65  93  66  96  67 /   5  20  20  20  20
DALHART TX                 59  93  61  98  61 /  10  20  20   5   5
GUYMON OK                  61  95  64  98  64 /   5  20  20  10  20
HEREFORD TX                61  91  65  96  65 /   5  20  20   5  10
LIPSCOMB TX                64  94  69  97  69 /   5  20  20  20  20
PAMPA TX                   65  92  67  95  67 /   5  20  20  20  20
SHAMROCK TX                66  94  68  96  68 /   5  20  20  20  20
WELLINGTON TX              68  95  71  97  72 /  10  20  20  20  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/13





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