Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 291121
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
621 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...
VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours with mostly
clear skies. Winds will be 10-20kts out of the west and southwest
for the KAMA TAF period. KGUY and KDHT will have a more northerly
wind shift after 19Z as a cold front starts to work slowly
southward. Few clouds expected at KDHT with scattered to broken
clouds at KGUY mainly after 21z.

Weber

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 405 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017/

DISCUSSION...
It will be another warm day across the Panhandles with slight
height rises aloft. Triple digit temperatures are likely across
the better part of the Texas Panhandle. In fact, a Heat Advisory
has been issued for Palo Duro Canyon as high temperatures could
reach as high as 109 today. The Oklahoma Panhandle may be able to
stay below the century mark thanks to a surface low over south-
central Kansas turning winds out of the north.

The northerly winds across the Oklahoma Panhandle today will be a
precursor to a cold frontal passage late tonight to early Friday
morning. Models continue to struggle to handle the possibility of
precipitation with this front. As of now have introduced low end
POPs across the far eastern Oklahoma Panhandle overnight Thursday
night with low end POPs mainly across the southern Texas
Panhandle. There is some indication that instability may be
sufficient for a few storms to become strong to possibly severe
late Thursday night and during the day on Friday.

Saturday through next week has a fair amount of uncertainty with
it. Medium range models continue to struggle on the evolution of
the upper air pattern. With that being said, there some consensus
on northwest flow aloft with embedded shortwaves. This has kept
the chance for precip in the forecast with generally less than 20
percent mention. should a better consensus be reached then
confidence would be greater.

Looking at the 4th of July forecast, an upper low is shown
emanating from the Rockies into SE Kansas. Models do show some
precip developing however they vary on the initiation time and
duration. Should the ECMWF verify, any early evening activities
may be a little wet but storms would clear in time for fireworks
to be shot off (although cloud cover could be an issue). Should
the GFS verify, the daytime activities will be fine with a risk of
the firework show being canceled. As said above there is a lot of
uncertainty with the forecast this far out so check back for
updates.

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this evening
     for the following zones: Randall.

OK...None.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX               103  66  89  62  85 /   0   0  10  20  20
Beaver OK                  99  68  87  61  89 /   0  20  10  20  10
Boise City OK              95  63  80  58  85 /   0  10  10  10  10
Borger TX                 105  68  90  64  88 /   0   5  10  20  20
Boys Ranch TX             104  66  91  62  88 /   0   0  10  20  20
Canyon TX                 104  64  90  63  86 /   0   0  10  20  20
Clarendon TX              102  69  92  65  86 /   0   0  10  20  20
Dalhart TX                103  65  86  59  86 /   0   5  10  20  20
Guymon OK                  97  67  85  60  88 /   0  10  10  20  10
Hereford TX               104  64  92  62  86 /   0   0  10  20  20
Lipscomb TX               102  69  89  62  89 /   0  10  10  20  10
Pampa TX                  102  68  90  62  86 /   0   5  10  20  20
Shamrock TX               102  71  93  66  88 /   0   5  20  30  20
Wellington TX             102  74  95  67  89 /   0   0  20  30  20

&&

$$

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