Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 302336
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
636 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL THREE TAF SITES THROUGH 00Z
THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE DALHART AND GUYMON
TAF SITES AROUND 10Z TO 12Z WEDNESDAY SHIFTING THE SOUTHWEST WINDS 5
TO 15 KNOTS OR LESS TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH. SOUTHWEST WINDS AT
THE AMARILLO TAF SITE 5 TO 15 KNOTS OR LESS WILL ALSO SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH AROUND 13Z TO 15Z WEDNESDAY.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WHICH PASSED BY YESTERDAY IS NOW LIFTING INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST...WITH A FEW WEAKER DISTURBANCES RIDING AROUND THE
EDGES OF A WESTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS STRETCHED NORTH-SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
PANHANDLES...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 30S WEST OF IT AND IN THE
LOW 60S TO THE EAST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FAR EASTERN PANHANDLES THIS EVENING/TONIGHT WITH MODEST
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR EXPECTED AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST THIS EVENING. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG...WITH SMALL HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

ANY STORMY WEATHER SHOULD BE EAST OF THE PANHANDLES BY LATE
TONIGHT...AND FOCUS THEN TURNS TOWARD A STRONG COLD FRONT NEARING THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BE
USHERED IN BY THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE PLAINS. IT
LOOKS TO BE ON A SPEEDY PACE WHEN IT ARRIVES IN THE PANHANDLES...WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE LIKELY THROUGH AMARILLO BY 12Z THURSDAY. AS WITH MANY
OF THESE COLD FRONTS...MOS GUIDANCE APPEARS TO UNDER-FORECAST WIND
SPEEDS. THEREFORE THIS FORECAST LEANS MORE TOWARD THE RAW MODEL WINDS
NEAR 20-25 KTS WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
GUSTS COULD NEAR 30-35 KTS THURSDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD BE GOOD TO
KNOCK TEMPERATURES DOWN ABOUT 15 DEGREES FROM RECENT DAYS...BUT WILL
CARRY VERY LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. IN THE OK PANHANDLE AND
FAR NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE...COULD SEE A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER FORCING.

AFTER THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY...MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT SHOULD BE A PLEASANT AUTUMNAL WEEKEND...WITH
HIGHS WARMING BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S AND MIN TEMPS MOSTLY IN
THE 50S. A WEAK COLD FRONT COULD EDGE INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY...MINUS
THE STRONG WINDS THIS TIME. A PATTERN CHANGE FROM NORTHWEST FLOW TO
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT MAY BE AHEAD FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...SO STAY
TUNED FOR WHAT THAT MAY BRING IN THE DAYS AHEAD.

NF

FIRE WEATHER...
A FEW AREAS ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES COULD SEE RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES DIP BELOW 20 PERCENT TODAY AND TOMORROW...BUT FOLLOWING RECENT
RAINFALL NO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

NF

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

11/08




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