Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 211137

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
637 AM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

12z TAF Cycle:

Very patchy MVFR/IFR stratus has developed in portions of the
southern Texas Panhandle, mainly south and east of KAMA. Expect
that clouds and any reduced vsbys due to limited BR will decrease
shortly after sunrise. Otherwise, VFR expected through the
period. The cold front is currently moving through central KS/CO
and should be to the OK Panhandle by 13-15z and then to Amarillo
by 18-19z. Winds will shift to the north behind the front at
15-25kts. Winds are expected to decrease around sunset until they
become light and variable around 06z Sunday morning. A few showers
can`t be ruled out this afternoon along and just behind the
front. Thunderstorms will be possible in the far eastern
Panhandles, with increasing chances in western OK.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 445 AM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017/

Once again, not a lot of wholesale changes made to the previous
forecast package. For today, the next fast moving upper level
shortwave trof and its associated surface cold front will move
across the region. The cold front will move quickly through the
area today and be south of the fcst area by around 00Z this
evening. Rather dry air will invade the OK and TX Panhandles
behind this cold front. Therefore, have restricted slgt chc to
very low end chance pops to the far ern TX Panhandle for today.
Breezy north winds will also occur in the post frontal airmass
for a few to several hours today, with winds diminishing from
north to south during the evening. The combination of clear skies,
dry air, and light winds late tonight into early Sunday morning
will result in temperatures falling into the lower to middle 30s
across much of the OK Panhandle and western half of the TX
Panhandle. A Frost Advisory will need to be considered for this
area with the next fcst package.

Dry weather is then expected for Sunday through Wednesday night
as an upper level ridge of high pressure prevails across the wrn
states while general upper level troffing develops over the ern
states. A dry cold front is expected to move through the fcst
area late Monday morning and afternoon with little fanfare other
than to bring cooler temperatures Tuesday. Warmer weather is then
slated to return for Wednesday.

Medium range models differ in handling the second, stronger cold
front and its associated sharp upper level shortwave trof for late
next week. The 00Z GFS and 00Z Canadian models depict a rather
fast moving and open upper level shortwave trof with little to no
precipitation and are not as agressive with the cold air plunge.
The 00Z ECMWF closes off a vigorous upper level low near the four
corners region on Friday and drags it across the srn and cntrl
high plains Friday night and Saturday. It is also much colder and
wetter compared to the GFS and Canadian models. Considering it is
anyone`s guess as to which model will verify the best this far
out in time, have gone with a model consensus approach from
Thursday onward to the end of the fcst pckg pending better model



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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