Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 030038 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
738 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...EVEN ONCE THE CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WEAKENS
WITH LOSS OF HEATING...BELIEVE THERE IS ENOUGH OF A COLD
POOL/OUTFLOW THAT THE STORMS WILL LIKELY TRACK SOUTH ACROSS MUCH OF THE
ERN PANHANDLE COUNTIES WHERE HIGHER SB CAPE VALUES EXIST (AOA 3000
J/KG WITH LITTLE TO NO CIN AT 6 PM). GIVEN THIS...RADAR TRENDS...AND
HRRR OUTPUT SUPPORTING THE THEORY...HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY
RANGE IN ERN TWO COLUMNS OF TX PANHANDLE COUNTIES FOR THIS EVENING
WITH LOW/SCT POPS FURTHER WEST. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT UPDATES ATTM.

MJG

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

AVIATION...CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. A FEW STORMS MAY BE CLOSE TO GUY
IN NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY TO
REMAIN EAST OF TAF SITES AND FOR NOW HAVE NOT INCLUDED TSTMS IN SITES
OTHER THAN GUY. SCT TSTM ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR AGAIN MAINLY LATE FRI
AFTN. DID NOT INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM GIVEN POPS ONLY AROUND 30 RANGE
ATTM. VFR WILL PREVAIL OTHER THAN IN AREAS IMPACTED BY STORMS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK REMAINS ON TRACK...WITH
PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES FOR PARTS OF THE PANHANDLES THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING AND AGAIN FOR THE EARLY HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER-AIR
PATTERN WILL FEATURE A MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTRY FOR
THE WEEK AHEAD AS COMPARED WITH THE LAST WEEK. A WEAKENING AND
FLATTENING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WILL
ONLY RE-INTENSIFY LATE NEXT WEEK. THE WEAKNESS OF THIS RIDGE SHOULD
ALLOW FOR PASSING SHORTWAVES TO DICTATE MUCH OF THE WEATHER OVER THE
NEXT 7 DAYS.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY ARE DIMINISHING AS MOST OF THE
PANHANDLE REMAINS BEHIND A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A FEW SHOWERS
ARE LINGERING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
A FEW ISOLATED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN EAST-
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. ANY FURTHER PRECIPITATION IN THE TX/OK PANHANDLES
TODAY WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER ANYTHING CAN DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH IN
THE NM/CO MOUNTAINS AND DRIFT OUR WAY.

ON AND OFF RAIN CHANCES THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT REMAINS STRETCHED FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE
VICINITY OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLES. THIS TROUGH SHOULD BE PUSHED SOUTH
OF THE AREA BY SOMETIME ON SATURDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...HELPING TO FLATTEN THE
SOUTHWEST RIDGE EVEN FURTHER AND BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
PANHANDLES. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE TIMING OF THIS
FRONT AND FOR ITS POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP A FAIR AMOUNT OF RAINFALL AS
IT PASSES THROUGH. HAVE INCREASED POPS DURING THE MONDAY/TUESDAY
TIMEFRAME TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

THE LOWER- AND MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY BY THIS TIME...BRINGING SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE
UNDER AND AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE. THIS WILL CERTAINLY HELP
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO OUR WEST...AND MAY
REQUIRE INCREASING POPS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS THIS
PATTERN TAKES SHAPE. SINCE THIS ACTIVITY WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON
THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TO OUR WEST AND
THE TIMING OF SHORTWAVES AROUND IT...HAVE ONLY INCLUDED MENTION OF
POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NF/HL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                67  86  65  90  68 /  30  30  40  20  10
BEAVER OK                  67  89  67  93  70 /  70  30  30  20  20
BOISE CITY OK              64  86  62  90  66 /  30  30  40  10  20
BORGER TX                  69  90  68  92  71 /  50  30  30  20  10
BOYS RANCH TX              67  90  66  92  69 /  40  30  40  10  10
CANYON TX                  67  87  65  91  67 /  30  30  40  20  10
CLARENDON TX               69  89  67  91  69 /  50  30  30  20  10
DALHART TX                 65  88  64  92  66 /  30  30  40  10  10
GUYMON OK                  67  88  66  93  69 /  30  30  30  10  20
HEREFORD TX                66  87  65  90  67 /  40  30  40  10  10
LIPSCOMB TX                67  89  67  91  71 /  70  30  30  20  20
PAMPA TX                   67  87  65  89  68 /  70  30  30  20  20
SHAMROCK TX                69  90  67  91  70 /  70  30  30  20  20
WELLINGTON TX              71  91  69  93  72 /  50  30  30  20  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

MJG





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