Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 211202
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
602 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2018

.UPDATE...
For 12Z Aviation.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Today and Tonight.

This AM, across Alabama, pressure falls continue as the surface
ridge continues to weaken and shift east in advance of a cold
front. The front currently stretches from Michigan to Kansas and
and then curving back into the Rockies. Ahead of this front,
southerly flow will allow for a continued increase in warmer,
moist air across Central Alabama. In the upper levels, a weak
shortwave is exiting Alabama into Georgia, Florida and the
Carolinas this AM with only a some scattered showers associated
with it at this time across portions of Florida and the Carolina
coast. A much larger upper low over the Rockies will move east-
northeast into the Central Plains through tonight that will help
to usher the surface system closer. For today, we will be looking
for much milder, spring-like conditions with partly cloudy skies
in the north and west portions of the state. Better cloud cover
holds off until tonight as the front gets closer. Although we
could see a few showers enter the far northwest counties before
sunrise, most of the convection should hold till later Monday
morning.

08

.LONG TERM...
Monday through Sunday.

Height falls are expected on Monday as a strong Plains trough
moves eastward, and moisture return should be sufficient for a
band of showers and maybe some thunder along a cold front.
Instability continues to appear limited due to dewpoints only
reaching the upper 50s to around 60F. Will continue to monitor
trends, but currently there is not enough support to mention a
threat for severe storms in the HWO. High pressure and dry weather
will return for Tuesday through Friday with temperatures near
normal. A large but progressive trough will emerge across the
Plains late in the week, and rain chances should increase for
Friday night through Sunday as this system approaches.

87/Grantham

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF Discussion.

VFR conditions expected through the next 24 hours at terminals.
Most of the cloud cover today will remain on the periphery of C
AL across MS and far N AL and thus not affect TAFs with the flow
around the elongated and retreating surface ridge across the SE
U.S into the W Atlantic. We will see S/SE winds today and SE/E
winds tonight ahead increasing overall moisture ahead of our next
front that will arrive on Monday. However, any low cigs or
convection should hold off until the daytime hours and past the
current TAF forecast period.

08

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Moisture and southerly flow will continue to increase today and
on Monday. Rain is likely along a cold front Monday afternoon and
evening. There are no fire weather concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     66  45  64  40  53 /   0  10  80  50   0
Anniston    68  47  66  40  55 /   0  10  80  70   0
Birmingham  67  49  66  40  55 /   0  10  80  20   0
Tuscaloosa  69  51  67  39  57 /   0  10  80  10   0
Calera      67  49  66  40  56 /   0  10  80  30   0
Auburn      66  48  66  43  58 /   0  10  50  70   0
Montgomery  69  47  69  43  59 /   0  10  80  50   0
Troy        69  48  70  45  59 /   0  10  60  60   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
None.

&&

$$

08/87



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