Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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000
FXUS64 KBMX 230910
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
410 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CLEAR SKIES ARE UPON MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS SKIRTING THE NORTHERN
ALABAMA COUNTIES. THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT SUPPLIED US WITH VERY
PLEASANT CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY HAS MOVED OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST OVER
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THAT WILL PLACE CENTRAL ALABAMA IN A
DRY EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW DURING THE DAY TODAY.
DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON TODAY ACROSS
THE EASTERN COUNTIES AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO BE ADVECTED WESTWARD
FROM GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER
TODAY THAN ON FRIDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS RISING SIGNIFICANTLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. MEANWHILE MOISTURE VALUES WILL BEGIN TO CREEP UPWARD
ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES STARTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE ON THE RISE AREAWIDE ON
SUNDAY WITH PWATS RISING ABOVE 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE STATE. AS THE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT RETURNS
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WE`LL BEGIN TO SEE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE.

WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE IN STORE ON
MONDAY AS UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE INCREASES IN ASSOCIATION WITH SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE WESTERN GULF. THE
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL BE REVOLVING AROUND THE BASE OF WHAT
WILL BECOME A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTED TROUGH AXIS FROM THE
GREAT PLAINS TO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS DEVELOP WITH AN UNSTABLE
AIRMASS IN PLACE AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF OVER 30 KNOTS.
THESE UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN IN
NATURE...NOCTURNAL CONVECTION IS ALSO LIKELY DUE TO THE STRENGTH
OF THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES AND DYNAMICS INVOLVED. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE KEEPS CENTRAL ALABAMA IN
A WARM...VERY MOIST...AND UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. HOPEFULLY WE`LL BE ABLE TO SEE SOME MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THIS UPCOMING WEEK AS MOST
OF THE STATE IS BECOMING ABNORMALLY DRY. WITH THIS IN MIND...EVEN
THOUGH THERE WILL BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS FOR SOME LOCATIONS OVER THE
COMING WEEK EACH DAY...WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE A GOOD BIT OF
RAINFALL AND MOST WILL BE BENEFICIAL IN NATURE.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
7-10 KTS OUT OF THE SE ON SATURDAY.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     83  59  85  68  82 /   0   0  10  20  50
ANNISTON    83  62  84  69  83 /   0   0  10  20  40
BIRMINGHAM  84  66  85  70  83 /   0   0  30  20  60
TUSCALOOSA  85  67  87  70  84 /   0   0  40  40  60
CALERA      83  65  86  70  83 /   0   0  30  30  60
AUBURN      81  63  85  67  83 /   0   0  10  20  40
MONTGOMERY  85  66  88  70  86 /   0   0  30  20  50
TROY        84  66  87  69  85 /   0   0  30  20  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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