Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 020441
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1141 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FORECAST GRIDS FOR THE PROGRESS OF THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. THAT IS ROUND ONE. A SECOND COMPLEX
THAT IS CURRENTLY BLOWN UP ACROSS MISSOURI...ARKANSAS AND INTO
WESTERN TENNESSEE MAY MAKE IT HERE BEFORE 7 AM ACROSS THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS...OR POSSIBLY SOME OUTFLOWS FROM THE SYSTEM. SO HAVE
HIGHER POPS OVER EAST CENTRAL PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH
6Z...THEN A BREAK THROUGH 9Z...WITH HIGHER CHANCES RETURNING TO
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AS THE 2ND SYSTEM APPROACHES. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO CARRY ON INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS. THE MAIN QUESTION
REMAINS HOW EARLY WILL IT ARRIVE TO THE CWA. CONVECTION THIS
EVENING HAS HELPED AREAS ACROSS THE NORTH/EAST COOL SOME WITH
LOWER TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS. SO HAVE TWEAKED DOWN A TAD TO
ACCOMMODATE...BUT NOT TOO MUCH BECAUSE WITH ALL OF THE CLOUD
COVER EXPECT ONLY MINIMAL ADDITIONAL COOLING FROM WHERE WE ARE
NOW.

08/MK


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CONVECTION THAT BLEW UP OVER EET HAS NOW SHIFTED TOWARDS AUO THIS
EVENING. OUTFLOW HAS DRIFTED THROUGH MGM AND IS APPROACHING TOI
BUT NOTHING HAS DEVELOPED ON THIS BOUNDARY. EXPECT MOST OF THE
AREA HAS STABILIZED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS DUE TO THE HEAVY
RAINS. AS WITH LAST NIGHT...SOME PATCHY MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER VERY MOIST. WINDS GENERALLY A
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST.

FOR TOMORROW...MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH POTENTIAL
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING BUT THERE WILL BE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THAT WILL GIVE THE AREA A GOOD SHOT OF
REDEVELOPMENT BY MID TO LATE MORNING. THIS SEEMS TO BE THE MOST
LIKELY TIME FOR DEVELOPMENT AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10KTS.

88

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH
DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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