Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 192041
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
241 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THE DEEP SOUTH THIS EVENING WITH WEAK SURFACE
LOW IN THE GULF. CURRENT RADAR SHOWING VERY LIGHT RAINFALL ACROSS
MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN ALABAMA. NOT TOO SURE THE PRECIP ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER OF MISSISSIPPI WILL MEASURE WHEN IT MOVES INTO
NORTHWEST ALABAMA...SO I HAVE LOWERED THE POPS A LITTLE ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE NORTH MAY ONLY BE
AROUND 0.01 TO 0.03. SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER TOTALS IN THE SOUTH BUT
STILL DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH...MAYBE A QUARTER INCH IN A FEW
SPOTS. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING.

ANOTHER WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
THIS ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A DEEP TROUGH THAT WILL SET
UP OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. MONDAY LOOKS CLOUDY WITH SOME PATCHY
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE POSSIBLE ON AND OFF THROUGH THE DAY. THE
MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL POTENTIAL DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL TUESDAY
AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

IT IS AN INTERESTING SYSTEM MID WEEK AS THE UPPER SYSTEM IS RATHER
DEEP AND COLD WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR SNOW DOWN INTO THE UPPER MID
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS THE UPPER LOW PIVOTS THROUGH THE MID
WEST AND UPPER TENNESSEE VALLEY. SURFACE WINDS AT OUR LOCATIONS
REMAIN WESTERLY (OR VERY BRIEFLY NORTHWESTERLY) EVEN AS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH WITH 1000-850 THICKNESS REMAINING TOO WARM FOR
WINTRY WEATHER. SO ANY WRAP AROUND PRECIP FROM THE UPPER LOW
SHOULD REMAIN RAIN. THE NEAR SURFACE COLD ADVECTION WITH THIS
SYSTEM IS PRETTY LIMITED AND SURFACE WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST
BY CHRISTMAS...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A COOL DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT OTHER THAN JUST BEING CLOUDY AND
RAINY.

TEMPERATURES ON CHRISTMAS SHOULD BE RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE WITH
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA BY FRIDAY EVENING AND SATURDAY.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

ARRIVAL OF LOWER CIGS AND RAIN WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA DUE TO THE DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE. MVFR CIGS CURRENTLY
LOCATED OVER SOUTH MISSISSIPPI WILL SPREAD EASTWARD AND INTO KMGM
AND KTOI BY 00Z. CIGS WILL LOWER AT KMGM AND KTOI OVERNIGHT AND
LIKELY REACH THE 1000-1500 FOOT RANGE. THERE IS A LOW CONFIDENCE
CIGS COULD FALL BELOW 1000 FEET BUT NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THIS
FORECAST. RAIN WILL BE MOSTLY LIGHT IN INTENSITY...AND KEPT VSBYS
AOA 3 MILES...WITH THE LOWEST VSBYS AT KMGM AND KTOI. THE RAIN
SHOULD BE EXITING CENTRAL ALABAMA BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z.

58/ROSE


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     36  53  35  53  43 /  70  20  10  10  40
ANNISTON    38  55  40  55  45 /  90  20  10  10  50
BIRMINGHAM  38  55  41  57  46 /  80  20  10  10  40
TUSCALOOSA  38  56  39  57  46 /  80  20  10  10  30
CALERA      40  55  41  56  46 /  90  20  10  10  40
AUBURN      42  55  43  55  48 /  90  50  10  30  60
MONTGOMERY  42  57  44  58  48 /  90  40  10  30  50
TROY        43  56  45  57  49 /  90  70  20  40  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







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