Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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718
FXUS64 KBMX 310459
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1159 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016

.UPDATE...
Aviation Discussion.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Rest of Today through Wednesday.

The upper ridge that`s been off to our north for quite a while is
beginning to break down. However, enough ridging aloft and drier air
from 1000-500mb has prevented much of any convective development
across the northern half of Central Alabama today. Dewpoints have
actually mixed down into the low and mid 60s for areas along and
north of the I-20 corridor this afternoon. Meanwhile, isolated to
scattered showers with a few storms have developed across southern
Alabama. That`s due in part to the weakening mid-level low over
eastern Georgia and easterly surface flow contributing to increased
amounts of moisture. Those leftover showers will diminish after
sunset this evening, as has been the case the previous couple of
days.

Surface winds tonight aren`t expected to go completely calm tonight,
as is the case typically during the late summer months across
Central Alabama. That`s already due in part to TD #9 starting to get
a bit more organized in the Gulf. Prevailing winds will continue to
slightly increase across our far southeast counties as the system
continues it`s slow northward jog. During the day on Wednesday, very
similar conditions will exist for our area, but we may actually see
less convective coverage even from what we`re seeing now, with dry
air at 700mb continuing to prevail.

56/GDG

.LONG TERM...
Wednesday Night through Monday.

Guidance continue to converge on TD#9 moving to the northeast
Wednesday night into Thursday as the upper ridge is expected
to break down allowing the low pressure system to move toward the
Big Bend area of Florida by Thursday. Our best rain chances will
be on Thursday as TD9 moves toward the Florida coast and an upper
trough swings and digs across Eastern Conus. However, overall we
will be on the drier side of the tropical system with minimal
impacts to Central Alabama and low QPFs. As the low moves away on
Friday into Saturday we will have only low pops generally across
the south/southeast counties to continue with an easterly wave.
Drier conditions move into the area behind the exiting tropical
system as it moves further into the Atlantic and as we head into
latter part of the weekend and a larger surface ridge builds over
Eastern Conus and an upper ridge spreads from Texas and the
Central Plains and into the Deep South.

08

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF Discussion.

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period for all
terminals. Overnight, winds will be calm to light with a generally E
to ENE component. Winds will increase Wednesday morning from the
northeast, and gradually turn to the north through the day, with
speeds of 6-9kts. Model guidance shows any storm activity will hold
off until mid to late afternoon, remaining isolated in nature. Given
the uncertainty in coverage, will not include shower/storm wording
at any terminal.

14

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Generally dry conditions are expected for Wednesday with slightly
better chances on Thursday, but still low. No impacts are expected
from Tropical Depression 9. Critical fire weather conditions are
not expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     70  92  71  92  68 /  10  20  20  30  10
Anniston    70  92  72  92  70 /  10  10  10  30  20
Birmingham  74  94  74  92  71 /  10  10  10  20  10
Tuscaloosa  73  95  74  94  72 /  10  10  10  20  10
Calera      73  94  73  93  71 /  10  10  10  20  10
Auburn      72  91  73  93  72 /  20  20  20  30  20
Montgomery  75  96  75  96  74 /  20  10  10  20  10
Troy        72  93  73  93  73 /  20  20  20  20  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$



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