Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 281800 AAC
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1200 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CLEAR SKY TODAY AS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE WITH A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THIS
MORNING. EVEN WITH A COOL NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE WE ARE
WARMING NICELY WITH THE AMPLE SUNSHINE. ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS
UPWARD ON AFTERNOON HIGHS DUE TO THE LATEST TRENDS. NO MAJOR
CHANGES. UPDATE ALREADY OUT.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS WE ARE CURRENTLY UNDER A
DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE RIDGE BUT BEGIN TO SHIFT AROUND
TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND SHIFTS
EAST AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM.

08/MK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 352 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

A BLANKET OF LOW CLOUDS OVER NORTHEAST ALABAMA HAS BEEN SLOWLY
ERODING OVERNIGHT AND THE REMAINING CLOUDS SHOULD BE MOSTLY GONE
BY MID-MORNING. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
AND THE WINDS WILL SWITCH FROM NORTHERLY IN THE MORNING TO EAST
AND SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. WARMER TONIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A FEW SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP IN THE LATE AFTERNOON THURSDAY ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA.
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH AS THE
BAND OF SHOWERS TRACKS SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. A RELATIVELY WARM
DAY ON THURSDAY DUE TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT...WITH MOST
AREAS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S. CLEARING AND TURNING COLDER THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

SATURDAY WILL BE A DAY OF TRANSITION AS CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF
NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST
STATES WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN MEXICO OVER THE
WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WILL FEED PACIFIC MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHERN
STATES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES
ALONG THE GULF COAST. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROF WILL
INTERACT WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND TRIGGER WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS SHOW A RAPIDLY DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW AS THE SHORT WAVE TROF AMPLIFIES. THIS CYCLOGENESIS
WILL HELP PULL BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH
ALABAMA SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FORCING AND
INSTABILITY FOR SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-85 SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING. STRONG COLD
AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW COULD BRING A
BRIEF MIXTURE OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW TO THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THE MOISTURE SHOULD PULL OUT OF THE AREA
MONDAY MORNING WITH CLEARING AND COLDER CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     53  32  59  35  49 /   0   0  20  30   0
ANNISTON    55  33  60  37  50 /   0   0  20  30   0
BIRMINGHAM  55  37  62  37  50 /   0   0  20  20   0
TUSCALOOSA  57  37  66  39  53 /   0   0  20  20   0
CALERA      57  36  62  38  52 /   0   0  20  20   0
AUBURN      55  34  59  39  54 /   0   0  10  30   0
MONTGOMERY  58  34  66  40  56 /   0   0  10  20   0
TROY        58  32  64  42  57 /   0   0   0  20   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08/58





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