Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 291929
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
229 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Overall pattern remains the same with ridging in the west and
troughing in the east. Central Alabama remains in the middle with
generally westerly flow. This generally means three things. One we
still warm up up into the 90s outside of rain chances. Two we have
a higher than climatological normal chance at seeing
showers/storms, although activity remains scattered at best.
Finally, westerly flow usually keeps the best moisture south of
the area and storms stay under control if they form at all. This
has been the case the past two days and expected again tomorrow.

Most of the activity over the weekend and into the first of the
week will be diurnally driven so best rain chances will be during
the afternoon. This is due tho the fact the overall synoptic
pattern will change very little over the next seven days with just
small oscillations each day. We will have to rely on any mesoscale
boundaries to increase and/or decrease rain chances from the 40
afternoon to 20 percent at night.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF Discussion.

VFR conditions should be prevailing outside of rain through the
period. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop this
afternoon and will be handled with VCTS at all sites. Model
guidance indicates the best low-level moisture and low cloud
potential will stay just north of BHM/ANB/ASN overnight, but this
will continue to be monitored. Patchy BR will be possible around
sunrise tomorrow, mainly in areas that receive rainfall.

32/Davis


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Generally scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected over
the next several days with highs in the upper 80s and low/mid 90s.
Surface winds will be less than 10 mph and generally from the
southwest/west through the weekend. Since surface dew points are
so high, critical fire weather thresholds are not expected to be
met, with no watches or warnings anticipated.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     71  91  71  92  71 /  30  50  40  50  30
Anniston    71  91  73  93  72 /  30  50  40  50  30
Birmingham  74  92  75  93  74 /  30  50  40  50  30
Tuscaloosa  73  93  74  94  73 /  20  50  40  50  30
Calera      73  92  74  93  73 /  20  50  40  50  40
Auburn      73  92  74  94  74 /  30  50  30  40  40
Montgomery  74  95  75  95  74 /  20  50  30  50  30
Troy        73  92  73  91  72 /  20  50  30  40  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$



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