Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 291802
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
102 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION AND SHORT TERM UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON THE LARGE MCS APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. THE MCS WILL CONTINUE TO TREK EASTWARD ALONG THE
INSTABILITY GRADIENT REACHING OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM UP AHEAD OF THE MCS
WITH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY PRESENT AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. BULK SHEAR IS SOMEWHAT ENHANCED ASSOCIATED WITH AN MCV BUT
THERE IS SOME QUESTION REGARDING THE SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF THE
STRONGER SHEAR AND HOW ORGANIZED THE SYSTEM WILL BE AS IT
APPROACHES OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES NEAR PEAK HEATING. THEREFORE
CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO ADD THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WINDS
TO THE HWO AT THIS TIME BUT SOME STRONG STORMS ARE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS LIKELY. TRENDS IN ORGANIZATION
WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED. FURTHER SOUTH A FEW
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF
THE MCS.

32/DAVIS

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST MS WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON...AFFECTING THE NORTHERN TAF SITES
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE ADDED A TEMPO MENTION OF
TSRA FOR TCL/BHM/EET AND VCTS AT ANB/ASN WITH SOME QUESTION
REGARDING HOW FAR EAST THIS ACTIVITY WILL MAKE IT. VIS REDUCTION
WILL BE LIKELY BUT CIG HEIGHTS WITH THIS ACTIVITY ARE UNCERTAIN.
ANY TSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR MGM/TOI WILL BE TOO ISOLATED TO MENTION.
SOME FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TOMORROW AND HAVE ADDED AN MVFR
MENTION ONLY AT MGM/TOI THOUGH FOG WILL BE A POSSIBILITY AT THE
NORTHERN TAF SITES TOMORROW MORNING AS WELL DEPENDING ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE STORMS.

32/DAVIS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THE NEXT TWO
DAYS...BEFORE MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED SUNDAY. DEPENDING
ON HOW QUICKLY A FRONT CLEARS THE AREA...RAIN CHANCES COULD LINGER
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 417 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/


LONG TERM...
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

A CLOSED LOW WITHIN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN
CONUS WILL ROTATE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY TOWARD THE
MIDWEST. THIS WILL PUSH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TO OUR EAST
LEAVING CENTRAL ALABAMA UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. AN ENHANCED LLJ
LIFTS FROM OUR WEST TO NORTH DURING THE DAY...AND BETTER UPPER
LEVEL JET STRUCTURES ARE WELL TO OUR WEST. WITH A WARM FRONT TO
OUR NORTH...THE AREA WILL BE WARM AND UNSTABLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BUT WITHOUT AN ORGANIZED FORCING MECHANISM TO SPUR
CONVECTION FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. OUTSIDE OF THE NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES...WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO BETTER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LOW...SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY WILL BE
POSSIBLE. BELIEVE MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY UNTIL SATURDAY
EVENING WHEN A STRONGER SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE TROUGH
CROSSES THE AREA.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE TO OUR NORTHWEST MOVING
TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WITH A FRONT STRETCHING SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY SUNRISE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED SHORTWAVE
CROSSES THE AREA AND THE FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD. THIS TREND
CONTINUES SUNDAY DUE TO THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THE FRONT. AT
SOME POINT...EXPECT THE BETTER FORCING TO OUT PACE THE FRONT AND
RAIN COVERAGE WILL DECREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. DIFFICULT
TO PINPOINT WHEN THAT WILL HAPPEN AT THIS POINT...AS MODEL
SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE PROGRESSION OF BOTH THE FRONT
AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BEYOND EARLY SUNDAY. IF THE ECMWF
VERIFIES...THE FRONT WILL STALL...WAITING FOR THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
TO MOVE OUT OF THE PLAINS AND WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS DRIER...WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
AND HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE EASTERN CONUS FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     64  83  64  81  61 /  50  40  60  70  30
ANNISTON    63  83  65  81  62 /  30  30  50  70  30
BIRMINGHAM  66  83  67  80  63 /  60  30  60  70  30
TUSCALOOSA  68  84  67  82  62 /  60  20  60  70  30
CALERA      66  83  66  81  63 /  60  20  50  70  30
AUBURN      64  84  66  83  64 /  10  20  30  50  30
MONTGOMERY  66  86  68  85  65 /  10  20  30  50  30
TROY        65  87  67  85  67 /  10  20  20  40  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



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