Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 281004
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
504 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THIS HAS BEEN AN INTERESTING SUMMER. A SURFACE FRONT AT THIS HOUR
IS AT THE DOORSTEP OF THE NORTHWEST PART OF ALABAMA. IT IS STILL
ANTICIPATED TO PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY. ALTHOUGH THE
MAIN ENERGY WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM IS WELL TO THE NORTHEAST...WE
WILL STILL HAVE A FEW FACTORS IN OUR FAVOR. ONE WILL BE THAT THE
SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
DURING THE AFTERNOON IN THE PRIME HEAT OF THE DAY. NOT
SURPRISINGLY THERE IS PLENTY OF CAPE AVAILABLE. SO...WITH THE
FORCING FROM THE FRONT...WHICH SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR BY AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS OF AROUND 2
INCHES...THAT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME TSRA ALONG THE
FRONT. THE BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS HOUR
IS NOT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ITSELF BUT JUST A PRE-FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. SO WITH AFTERNOON HEATING AND THE FRONT...WILL LEAVE IN
THE LOW CONFIDENCE 1 (OUT OF 5) MENTION OF SEVERE IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL MARCH INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT
TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT
SETTLES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA ON TAP FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY...
THE RIDGE DOES BUILD A TAD FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ALLOWING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO LINGER
ANOTHER DAY. LOOK FOR DRY AND VERY COOL READINGS FOR LATE JULY FOR
EARLY TUESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

BY THURSDAY...LOOK FOR THE SURFACE RIDGE TO WEAKEN AND A SURFACE
LOW ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN FLORIDA TO WAFFLE AND
RETROGRADE BACK INTO ALABAMA AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND INTO THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. SO...TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE BACK UP
IN RESPONSE AS THE COOLER FLOW IS CUT OFF...BUT SHOULD NOT BE
QUITE AS HOT AS OF LATE AS RAIN CHANCES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO RISE
AS WELL AS THE LOW RETROGRADES AND INTERACTS WITH UPPER SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE STAGNANT LOW PRESSURE THROUGH OVER
EASTERN CANADA. WITH SEVERAL LOBES SWINGING AROUND THE BASE AS
WE HEAD TOWARD THE WEEKEND AND EVEN DIGGING FURTHER AS WE APPROACH
SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY...THIS WILL SET UP FOR SEVERAL RAIN
OPPORTUNITIES IN OUR EXTENDED.

AS FOR THE TROPICS...MODELS SHOW THE LOW REMNANT IN THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC CONTINUING TO PROGRESS WESTWARD POSSIBLY TURNING TO THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH BEFORE IT GETS TO THE CARIBBEAN BUT NOT POSING
A THREAT TO THE U.S. MAINLAND AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE MODELS FOR ANY CHANGES AS WE HEAD INTO OUR NORMALLY MORE
FAVORABLE MONTH OF AUGUST.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE TO AROUND 5 KTS
THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE LIGHT PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...BUT THE BEST CHANCE IS AT TOI WHERE MVFR/IFR VIS COULD
OCCUR. IN FACT TOI IS ALREADY CLOSE TO MVFR AT THIS TIME.

A FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD EARLY MONDAY INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA.
EXPECT BROKEN MVFR CIGS AND A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT AS IT APPROACHES NORTHERN TERMINALS
AFTER SUNRISE. THIS IS A TOUCH SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
AND CONFIDENCE HAS DECREASED WITH THE AMOUNT OF RAIN ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WITH THAT SAID REMOVED THE TEMPO SHRA FOR THE
NORTH AS THERE JUST DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE THAT MUCH LIFT FOR A
PERSISTENT TIME FRAME NORTH. LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN WINDOW FOR THE
NORTH TO SEE ANY RAIN/STORMS WILL BE BETWEEN 10Z AND 18Z.

THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD...WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED
CONVECTION RE-FIRING ALONG THE BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
AS STATED LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE SLOWER AND NOW HAVE IT NEAR A
DYA TO ALX LINE BY 18Z. DID CONTINUE WITH VCTS FOR TOI AND MGM
AFTER 19Z. EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS TO RAINFALL TIMING.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     87  63  82  58  83 /  20   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    88  64  82  58  82 /  20   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  89  65  83  60  83 /  20   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  91  65  85  61  85 /  20   0   0   0   0
CALERA      90  66  84  61  84 /  30   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      91  67  86  61  85 /  40  10   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  94  68  88  63  87 /  50  20   0   0   0
TROY        93  67  88  62  86 /  60  30   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08/16




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