Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KBMX 291210
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
710 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION OF NORTH ALABAMA AND WAS ASSOCIATED WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS EARLIER TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE SHOULD CONTINUE
TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND IS ALREADY
CAUSING SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
ESPECIALLY WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND HAVE RAISED POPS FOR TODAY.
SOME ORGANIZATION OR GROWTH INTO A CLUSTER OF STORMS IS POSSIBLE
WITH A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AS IT PROPAGATES TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. THIS IS LIKELY TO HAVE SOME IMPACT ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES...BUT HAVE KEPT THE HEAT ADVISORY SINCE HEAT INDICES
SHOULD EXCEED 105 DEGREES DUE TO DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE UPPER
70S ACROSS IN MANY LOCATIONS BY LATE MORNING.

THE HIGH HUMIDITY WILL NO DOUBT CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS WELL...
ESPECIALLY AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH...AND THE HEAT
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED. VERY HIGH PWAT VALUES...AS HIGH
AS 2.3 INCHES...WILL BE IN PLACE AND SHOULD LEAD TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS ON THURSDAY WITH THE AID OF DAYTIME HEATING.
SURPRISINGLY...THIS SCENARIO IS NOT DEPICTED VERY WELL BY THE QPF
FROM SEVERAL MODELS. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT
IN SHOWING WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SEEMS LIKE THE MOST
REASONABLE SOLUTION.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS HAVE TRENDED A MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THE FRONT AND PUSH OF DRIER AIR IN ITS WAKE. SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY LINGER NEAR THE FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT WILL PROBABLY EXIT THAT AREA ON SUNDAY.
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LEAD TO LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST.

87/GRANTHAM


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

OTHER THAN BRIEF MVFR BR FOR AN HOUR THIS MORNING AND ONCE AGAIN
AROUND 11Z...CURRENTLY HAVE VFR FORECAST THE REMAINING PERIODS.
DID MENTION VCSH AND VCTS FOR ALL TERMINALS TODAY. THE BIGGEST
ISSUE REGARDING THE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE TIMING AT EACH SPECIFIC
LOCATION. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS JUST WEST OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. IMPULSES ALOFT WILL PROVIDE ADDED LIFT INTO A MOISTURE
RICH ENVIRONMENT. THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IS AROUND 93
DEGREES...SO AT LEAST SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP. SOME GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE STORMS. THE MID TO UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDINESS AROUND SHOULD NOT HAVE A GREAT IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES.

75

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
AHEAD OF A FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY. SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR SHOULD MOVE IN ACROSS THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT
THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

87

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     94  75  92  71  91 /  50  30  50  20  10
ANNISTON    93  75  93  73  91 /  50  30  60  20  20
BIRMINGHAM  95  76  93  72  92 /  50  30  60  20  10
TUSCALOOSA  97  75  95  74  94 /  50  30  60  20  10
CALERA      94  75  93  72  92 /  50  30  60  20  10
AUBURN      94  75  92  74  90 /  50  30  60  30  40
MONTGOMERY  96  76  96  76  93 /  50  30  60  30  30
TROY        96  75  94  75  91 /  50  30  60  30  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BULLOCK-CHILTON-DALLAS-ELMORE-FAYETTE-
GREENE-HALE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-
MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-RUSSELL-SHELBY-SUMTER-TUSCALOOSA-
WALKER-WINSTON.

&&

$$


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.