Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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000
FXUS65 KBOI 210940
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
339 AM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW AN
EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH TODAY...LIMITING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL IDAHO ZONES...TO INCLUDE THE WEST-CENTRAL
MTNS AND WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY. THE REST OF THE SW IDAHO AND SE
OREGON IS DRY TODAY IN W-NW FLOW. AN UPPER LOW DROPS INTO THE PAC
NW TONIGHT...TRACKING TO EAST-CENTRAL OREGON BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE AND LIFT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL FOCUS PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT FROM E-CENTRAL OREGON INTO THE W-CENTRAL ID MTNS AND
S-CENTRAL IDAHO ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
SLIDE WITH HIGHS 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY AND FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD BRINGING
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A CLOSED LOW MOVES ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
ZONES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE WEST
CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS. DRIER AIR ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW
SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF SOUTHEAST OREGON PRECIPITATION FREE.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY.
DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITS BUT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER MOIST PACIFIC
TROUGH FOR MONDAY. INCREASED POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ESPECIALLY
THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS. MODELS REMAIN SPLIT ON THE TROUGH AND
UPPER RIDGE EVOLUTION FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. GFS REMAINS
CONSISTENT IN BRINGING THE PACIFIC RIDGE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...THE 00Z ECMWF AND MANY OF THE 00Z GFS ENSEMBLES MEMBER
KEEP THE TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
BLOCKING PATTERNS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY HANDLED WELL SO CONFIDENCE IN
EITHER SOLUTIONS IS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HIGHLANDS AND MAGIC VALLEY AND SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS NORTHWEST 10 TO 15
KTS...EXCEPT IN VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS WHERE GUSTS TO 35 KT
POSSIBLE. WINDS ALOFT WEST 20 KTS AT 10K FT MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....JS
AVIATION.....JS



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