Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 220931
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
331 AM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER SW
IDAHO NEAR KUNA...WITH SHOWERS NORTH OF THERE MOVING TO THE WEST
AND SHOWERS ACROSS OWYHEE COUNTY DRIFTING E OR NE. RADAR ECHOES
HAVE POPPED UP TO OVER 40 DBZ NEAR MUO WHILE COLD CLOUD TOPS NEAR
-50C WERE DETECTED ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS.
THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO EXIT TOWARDS YELLOWSTONE LATER TODAY
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS EXPECTED UNDER ITS TRACK...OVER THE BOISE
MOUNTAINS INCLUDING IDAHO CITY. ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED OVER E OREGON FOR A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THERE THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. AN UPPER IMPULSE /WARM
FRONTAL-LIKE/ IS EXPECTED TO LIFT SW TO NE ACROSS OREGON TUESDAY
EVEN AS MODERATE SW FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE SE OREGON/SW IDAHO
THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT DRIER WX LATE TUESDAY AND WARM DAYS/MILD
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A PATTERN CHANGE EXPECT
THE LATER THIS WEEK WITH A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SLOW THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM AND DIFFER
GREATLY WITH TRACK AND EVOLUTION THIS WEEKEND. THE SLOWER EASTWARD
MOVEMENT WILL MEAN WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY
UNDER STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM AND THUS THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION REMAIN QUITE LOW ON
THURSDAY. THE MOISTURE AND COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF OUR AREA ON FRIDAY. STILL VERY
LITTLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS FOR THE WEEKEND AS BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF WANT TO FORM A LOW NEAR THE REGION. ECMWF REMAINS
CONSISTENT WITH STALLING THE FRONT OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
FORMING A CLOSED LOW OVER NRN CA/WRN NV ON SATURDAY. THIS WOULD
TRANSPORT ABUNDANT MONSOONAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION FOR
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. 18Z/00Z GFS FORMS A LOW OVER NRN NV/UT SATURDAY AND BRINGS
LIMITED WRAP AROUND MOISTURE INTO SW IDAHO MAINLY ON SUNDAY. BOTH
SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE WEEKEND WILL BE WET WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON WHERE AND HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION THE
AREA WILL SEE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SW IDAHO AND BAKER COUNTY OREGON THIS MORNING.  EAST OF KMOU WITH
LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AROUND KMUO
THIS MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SE
OREGON AND SW IDAHO. SURFACE WINDS...EAST TO SOUTHEAST 10 KTS OR
LESS THIS MORNING...THEN WESTERLY UP TO 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
ALOFT...NORTHEAST UP TO 15 KTS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....JS
AVIATION.....JS


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