Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 282037
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
237 PM MDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Monday...A closed low over
southwest Canada will move east through Monday and bring an upper
level trough Sunday afternoon and evening, and a surface cold
front Monday night. This system will help showers and
thunderstorms develop mainly across the north - but also in the
far southeast corner of the CWA - Sunday afternoon and evening. We
will remain dry tonight and then dry out again late Sunday night
through Monday. We will see a considerable warmup Sunday in
advance of the cold front, with temps into the lower 80s in the
Treasure Valley. On Monday, behind the cold front, temps will fall
5 to 8 degrees compared to Sunday. Overnight lows will be near
normal.

.LONG TERM...Monday night through Saturday...A very warm upper
level ridge with axis over the west coast on Monday night shifts
slowly inland over the Intermountain Region Wednesday and
Thursday. Warm dry west-northwest flow aloft and subsidence east
of the ridge axis will keep skies mostly clear through Wednesday,
with temperatures rising 5 to 10 degrees each day. Highs are
expected to be around 15 degrees above normal on Thursday. By
Thursday afternoon models have the ridge axis slightly east of our
area, with the upper level flow shifting into the southwest.
Although the Southwest Monsoon is still about a month away, models
do show increasing precipitable water over California. Some of
this moisture could be carried north over southeast Oregon and
southwest Idaho by Thursday afternoon. So with marginal
instability and reachable convective temperatures, we are
including a slight chance of afternoon and evening thunderstorms
for southeast Oregon and the west central Idaho mountains.

Thursday night through Saturday...Ridge axis still impacting the
area allowing for above normal temperatures and mostly dry
conditions. Friday morning the models indicate a little bit of
moisture pushing on from the southwest which may cause some light
precipitation for the mountains in southeast Oregon and southwest
Idaho. Some slight instability could lead to isolated
thunderstorms for the afternoon hours. The 12Z ECMWF shows less of
a flattening of the ridge axis Friday. This means temperatures are
likely to remain in the low to mid 90s through the end of the
period.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. Mostly clear through Sunday morning. Surface
winds: west to northwest 5-15kts. Winds aloft to 10K feet MSL: west
to northwest 10-20kts.

Sunday afternoon and evening: scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms over the west central Idaho mountains, southern Twin
Falls County, and southeastern Owyhee County. Monday: mostly clear
with northwest surface winds 15-25 kts.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....JT/JC
AVIATION.....JT



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