Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 162211
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
311 PM MST Tue Jan 16 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 311 PM MST Tue Jan 16 2018

Another night of cold temperatures, but not as cold as last
night. Bitter cold air also trapped in the mountain valleys.
Lighter and slightly warmer flow will once again produce strong
surface based inversions producing pockets of especially cold air
such as along river bottoms. Otherwise, clear skies and light
breezes overnight with flat cross area pressure gradient.
On Wednesday, flow aloft turns northwesterly and remains quite
dry. A weak ripple in this flow marking the leading edge of
significantly warmer aloft is fcst to pass over the fcst area
with a narrow band of mid and high-level moisture late in the day.
Gradient winds east of the mtns also becomes downslope, to help
warm temps. Highs tomorrow anywhere from 12 to 18 deg F warmer on
the plains and 6 to 12 deg F warmer in the high country.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 311 PM MST Tue Jan 16 2018

Warm air advection will bring warmer temperatures to the forecast
area through Friday. Highs will warm to near 60 degrees F on the
plains and around 40 degrees F over the mountains.

Currently, models are moving a winter system into the northern
mountains Saturday associated with high QG values showing ample
ascent. GFS moves the system in faster with snow on the plains by
late day Saturday. The European moves the system slower with
widespread coverage over the plains Sunday, matching well with
the Canadian solution. The GFS has the system exiting the state 6
to 12 hours sooner than the others. For this reason pops at the
beginning of the system have remained the same as previously
forecast, while the end of the storm has been increased to match
the Canadian and European. The highest QG appears over the east
central Colorado plains Sunday as the European brings a closed low
northeast in Colorado.

To start next week, westerly flow will dominate the forecast area
as another system moves in from the west coast. Moisture could
accompany this westerly flow, bringing possible snow chances to
the mountains Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 311 PM MST Tue Jan 16 2018

Dry and stable conditions will produce VFR conditions next 24
hours. Light east-southeasterly winds this afternoon go
southerly/drainage this evening. Speeds generally under 10 kts.
Tomorrow, southerly winds 4-8 kts in the morning turn counter-
clockwise to east-northeast 7-13 kts by early to mid afternoon,
except along the foothills where light west-northwest winds will
develop after 20Z.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Baker
LONG TERM...Sullivan
AVIATION...Baker



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