Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 290952
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
352 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 352 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

A WK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY ESE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
MEANWHILE A CDFNT OVER ECNTRL WY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS BY
MIDDAY WITH UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FNT.  ALTHOUGH BEST
MID LVL ASCENT WILL STAY MAINLY TO THE NE OF THE AREA THERE WILL BE
SOME POTENTIAL VORTICITY WHICH SHOULD HELP WITH PCPN DEVELOPMENT
LATER THIS MORNING THRU THE AFTN HOURS.  INSTABILITY WILL BE
SOMEWHAT LIMITED HOWEVER WITH MID LVL COLD POOL OVER THE AREA SHOULD
SEE SOME TSTMS AS WELL. SOME SNOW WILL OCCUR IN THE MTNS WITH 2 TO
4 INCHES POSSIBLE ABOVE 10000 FEET. AS FOR HIGHS WILL KEEP
READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS NERN CO.

BY TONIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE AWAY FM THE AREA WITH
PCPN GRADUALLY ENDING DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE MOVING OVER COLORADO THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND AND THEN THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...BUT IT IS UNCLEAR
EXACTLY HOW MUCH DRYING IS GOING TO ACCOMPANY THE RIDGE. THE 700
MB SPECIFIC HUMIDITY FIELDS FROM THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF ALL HANG
ON TO VALUES ABOVE 4 G/KG THROUGH MONDAY. IT SEEMS THAT THE UPPER
RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE STATE IS NOT GOING TO BE ALL THAT
SUBSIDENT AFTER SATURDAY...WHILE THE RETURN FLOW BEHIND TONIGHT/S
FRONTAL PASSAGE IS GOING TO TAP INTO MID-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER NEW
MEXICO...AT LEAST FOR AWHILE. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE QUASI-
GEOSTROPHIC DIAGNOSTICS SHOW THE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND/OR DESCENT
TO BE AROUND ZERO OVER COLORADO. DAYTIME HEATING MAY THEN BE
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...FOOTHILLS AND ADJACENT PLAINS. STORMS SHOULD ONLY BE
LOOSELY ORGANIZED AS WINDS ALOFT WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK.

EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE A CONTINUATION OF THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON SHOWER ACTIVITY INITIATING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND THEN
SPREADING EASTWARD EACH AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
GOING TO BE MOIST IN THE FORSEEABLE FUTURE...GIVEN THE EXCEEDINGLY
MOIST CONDITIONS ACROSS TEXAS. THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL
FEATURE THE UPPER RIDGE MOVING EAST OF COLORADO AND FLOW ALOFT
BECOMING A BIT MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. THE GFS SHOWS THE MID-LEVEL
SPECIFIC HUMIDITY VALUES FINALLY DROPPING AS THE FLOW TRANSITIONS
TO SOUTHWESTERLY...BUT BY THEN WE WILL BE UNDER A LITTLE MORE
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WHICH COULD HELP SHOWERS DEVELOP. FOR NOW THE
FORECAST IS GOING TO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EACH DAY...BUT
NOTHING TO HEAVY AT ANY GIVEN TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN COOL OFF A
LITTLE BIT ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 352 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

A CDFNT WAS OVER ECNTRL WY AT 09Z AND SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BY
14Z TO 15Z WITH NNE WINDS WHICH WILL CONTINUE THRU THE AFTN HOURS.
CEILINGS OVER NERN WY BEHIND FNT ARE IN THE 1000-1500 FT RANGE SO
CAN`T RULE OUT MVFR CEILINGS FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER FNTL PASSAGE.

SHOWER THREAT SHOULD INCREASE BY 18Z WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF A TSTM
THRU THE AFTN HOURS.  PCPN THREAT SHOULD END BY EARLY EVENING
HOWEVER MAY SEE CEILINGS STAY AROUND THE 4000 FT LEVEL OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY SAT MORNING.

BY EARLY EVENING WINDS WILL BECOME MORE ELY AND THEN SELY BY
MIDNIGHT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 352 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY WILL BE IN THE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH RANGE
THUS NO FLOODING ISSUES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...DANKERS
AVIATION...RPK
HYDROLOGY...RPK


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