Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 241011

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
411 AM MDT Thu Aug 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 411 AM MDT Thu Aug 24 2017

Subtropical moisture in weak flow aloft will continue across the
area today into tonight.  At this time hard to find any defined
feature embedded in the flow.  Overall will see sct showers and
tstms over the higher terrain this aftn although activity closer to
the WY border may have less coverage.  Across nern CO, outflow
boundaries fm convection over the higher terrain should allow for
sct storm development by mid to late aftn along the urban
corridor, which will then spread across the plains thru the early
evening hours. Although mid lvl flow is weak capes will be decent
along and east of a Limon to Akron to Sterling line. Thus can`t
rule out an isold marginal svr storm over the far ern plains. As
for highs 850-700 mb temps change little, however, may see some
increase in cloud cover so will keep highs a few degrees cooler
than yesterday. Naturally if cloud cover is less than expected
then highs could end up similar to Wed.

For tonight activity over the higher terrain should end by early
evening while storms over the plains linger thru mid to late
evening. After midnight do not expect any additional activity over
the plains.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 411 AM MDT Thu Aug 24 2017

Each of the medium range operational models show a lot of ridging
in store for Colorado through the next week which is going to
result in a continuation of warm temperatures and a slight chance
of afternoon shower on most days. The upper level ridge is
forecast to be centered over Utah through the forecast period with
Colorado under moderate northwesterly flow aloft each day. At
lower levels, a persistent area of low pressure will remain over
the Rocky Mountains and Great Basin which will draw in subtropical
moisture from the south at times. As the moisture levels fluctuate
under the generally weak flow pattern, daily heating will produce
showers that form over the mountains and sometimes drift onto the
plains. As the weekend progresses, we will be keeping an eye on
the moisture associated with the approach of Tropical Storm Harvey
onto the Texas coast. At this time, models do not appear to bring
the moisture from Harvey into Colorado, but this may change in the
days ahead. With no indication of abnormal amounts of moisture
over the state, will just stick with chance and slight chance pops
through the forecast period.

Temperatures will run slightly warmer than normal for the end of
August, with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s on the
plains. The development of shower activity each afternoon will
help keep temperatures from getting abnormally warm.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 411 AM MDT Thu Aug 24 2017

Winds were drainage early this morning but should become light
wsw by 14z. By midday winds should become light nne. There will
be a chc of showers and tstms in the 21z to 01z timeframe with a
brief period of gusty winds with any shower or storm. After 01z
storm threat should end. Winds early this evening should become
sly and remain that general direction overnight.




LONG TERM...Dankers
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