Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 290534 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1234 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

.AVIATION...The previous issuance of TAFS has been updated to
reflect an anticipated lesser chance of rain on Thursday, with
isolated convection expected instead of scattered. VFR will
prevail through the next 24 hours with a moderate to breezy
onshore surface flow.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 632 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...Isolated convective activity continues across southern
Brooks, eastern Starr, and western Hidalgo counties. Expect
activity to wane through the evening hours with little impact at
local terminals. VFR conditions to prevail this evening and
tonight. Showers and thunderstorms should develop over the Gulf
waters once again tonight and some of this activity may push into
the coastal counties. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms possible once again Thursday, primarily across the
coastal counties. Outside of brief MVFR ceilings with the
convection, VFR conditions should prevail throughout the day
Thursday. Light southeasterly winds tonight become breezy and
gusty by late morning Thursday.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 330 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017/

SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday night): A seabreeze early this
afternoon initiated another round of showers and thunderstorms
across the coastal counties with locally heavy rainfall of 1 to 2
inches across portions of the lower Rio Grande Valley. The boundary
will continue to spark additional convection through this afternoon
as it progresses westward. After sunset, rain chances should
diminish with the exception of a few streamer showers over the Gulf
waters overnight and near the coast. Weak mid-level trough axis will
continue to linger along the lower TX coast through much of the
forecast period and moisture should be deep enough to keep slight to
chance PoPs in the forecast for the eastern half of the area. The
pressure gradient will tighten late tonight as surface high pressure
builds over the Southeast U.S. and low pressure deepens over the
Central Plains. Winds will increase out of the southeast with
daytime heating, which may gust up to 25 mph at times Thursday
afternoon. Temperatures will be a few degrees above normal with
highs ranging from the upper 90s to 103 near Falcon Dam.

LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday): The combination of ample
moisture (especially along the coast), daytime heating and a
weakness in the 500mb ridge will provide a slight chance of isolated
showers and thunderstorms on Friday. The 500mb ridge over the
eastern Gulf of Mexico is expected to build westward over the region
on Saturday while the 500mb ridge over the southwest United States
and northern Mexico provides subsidence across the area through
the weekend. Limited low to mid level moisture will support
generally rain-free conditions Saturday through the middle of next
week. Above normal temperatures temperatures will prevail through
the forecast period with mid level ridging overhead.

MARINE (Now through Thursday night): Light and variable winds
over the marine areas this afternoon will increase out of the
southeast as high pressure shifts off the Southeast U.S. coast.
Thursday, winds will increase and seas will build to 3 to 5 feet.
Small Craft Advisories are possible Thursday and Thursday night.

Friday through Monday...Surface low pressure across west Texas
interacting with high pressure across the Gulf of Mexico will
support moderate to strong southeast winds Friday through
Saturday. Moderate southeast winds will prevail by Sunday as the
pressure gradient weakens. Exercise caution conditions likely with
small craft advisories possible for portions of the Lower Texas
coastal waters Friday through Saturday.



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