Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 030755
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
255 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY/...WITH PERSISTENT 500 MB
TROUGHINESS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES AND GULF
OF MEXICO...AND 500 MB LOW PRESSURE RETROGRADING ACROSS CENTRAL
MEXICO...ENOUGH WEAKNESS IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE PRESENT TO
ALLOW ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN PORTION AND ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS OF THE BRO CWFA TODAY AND TOMORROW...WITH ISOLATED
STREAMER SHOWERS OFFSHORE TONIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
RANGE GENERALLY BETWEEN 1.6 AND 1.8 INCHES...NOT ROBUST...BUT
ENOUGH TO EKE OUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED
AREAS. INHERITED DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOKED SLIGHTLY TOO COOL
WHEN COMPARED TO CURRENT MET/MAV GUIDANCE...SO TEMPERATURES WERE
RAISED BY ONE DEGREE ACROSS ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT APPEARED FINE
AND WERE LEFT ALONE.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...DURING THE LONG
TERM PERIOD THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CONUS WILL BE DOMINATED BY
AN ELONGATED HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS
THE EAST. THIS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW GRADUALLY
SPREADS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WHILE A DISTURBANCE OVER MEXICO
FLATTENS KEEPING DEEP MOISTURE TRAP SOUTH OF THE CWA. SHALLOW LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA BUT WILL BE NO
MORE THAN 50 TO 40 PERCENT WHICH WILL KEEP CHANCES OF RAIN VERY
LOW FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. LOW TEMPS
FOR THE HOLIDAY TO WATCH FIREWORKS WILL RANGE BETWEEN A FEW MID TO
UPPER 70S ACROSS THE RGV AND NEAR 80S ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES.
STREAMER SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP BY MID SUNDAY MORNING BUT QUICKLY
DIMINISH WITH LOW RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS AS DRY AIR MAKES ITS WAY
INTO THE AREA. GRADIENT BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE CWA
INCREASING SE WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND NEAR 90
ALONG THE COAST.

NEXT WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE TOWARDS THE PAC NORTHWEST WITH ITS
CENTERED SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BEGINS TO BUILD EVEN
MORE INTO SOUTH TEXAS. THE SURFACE GRADIENT WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN
AND DEEPER MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE. MUCH DRIER AIR OVER THE GULF AND DEEP S TX WILL BE IN
CONTROL PROVIDING MUCH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND MODERATE TO BREEZE SE WINDS MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. HEAT
INDEX WILL BE READING BETWEEN 102 TO 105 DEGREES ACROSS THE CWA
WITH HIGHER INDEX RIGHT ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. A VERY BROAD AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH
WEAK MID LEVEL WIND FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA. THE MOISTURE CONTENT WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S
AND LOWER LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN. A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY
WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW STREAMER SHOWERS DEVELOPING AND FRIDAY AS
WEAK TROPICAL WAVES MOVE CLOSER TO THE AREA.

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH SATURDAY...BUOY 42020 REPORTED SOUTH WINDS
AROUND 18 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 21 KNOTS WITH SEAS SLIGHTLY OVER
4.5 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 8 SECONDS AT 02 CDT/07 UTC. MODERATE WINDS
AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD
DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO INTERACTING WITH LOW
PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT MAY NEED TO
EXERCISE CAUTION FOR THE FAR OFFSHORE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS DUE TO
SEAS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
STRENGTHEN DURING THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF
INTERACTS WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER MEXICO. THIS WILL RESULT IN
BUILDING SEAS AND POSSIBLY SCEC SUNDAY. FOR NEXT WEEK...THE
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL WITH MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WEEK. SEAS WILL BE BETWEEN 4 TO 5 FEET AS THE SAME WEATHER PATTERN
CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK. WINDS INCREASE AGAIN TO POSSIBLY SCEC
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  90  79  90  78 /  20   0  20  10
BROWNSVILLE          93  78  93  78 /  20   0  20  10
HARLINGEN            95  77  95  77 /  20   0  20  10
MCALLEN              95  77  95  77 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      97  76  97  76 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   87  79  87  79 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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