Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 251730
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1230 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH
LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WINDS. FOG LOOKS TO BE A CONCERN
ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT WITH NAM AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATING
SATURATION AT THE SURFACE AND LIGHT WINDS UP TO 5K FEET. BELIEVE
PROBABILITY IS HIGHER AT HRL AND MFE WHERE PREDOMINANT LINE FOR
3SM WAS ADDED 10-1430Z. PROBABILITY IS LOWER AT BRO WHERE A TEMPO
FOR 5SM WAS ADDED 10-14Z. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
CLEAR SKIES WITH SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING. VISIBILITIES WERE NEAR 4SM WITH FOG AT KT65/KEBG/KMFE TO
NEAR 5SM WITH FOG AT KHRL. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING
WITH PATCHY FOG. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS
500MB RIDGE ACROSS TEXAS CONTINUES TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...500MB RIDGE ACROSS TEXAS AND
NORTHERN MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY TODAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND WEAKEN
SUNDAY BUT SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. AT THE
SURFACE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE TEXAS COAST WILL MOVE
EASTWARD TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY ALLOWING AN ONSHORE FLOW TO RETURN.
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES AS WELL AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AT THE
SURFACE ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO PROVIDE GOOD SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR IN THE REGION
THROUGH MIDWEEK. WINDS ALOFT WILL SHIFT MORE TO THE NW LATER IN
THE WEEK...WHICH WILL TRY TO PUSH A FRONT THROUGH TEXAS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. MODELS ARE DIFFERING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL
PUSH...BUT ARE SIMILAR IN THAT THE FRONT WILL HAVE MINIMAL
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. SMALL CHANCE OF RAINFALL KEPT FOR THE
REGION MAINLY FRIDAY MORNING...BUT LIMITING RAIN AND FORCING AND
DYNAMICS WELL TO THE NORTH MINIMIZES OVERALL THREAT. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S EACH DAY.

MARINE...
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SEAS WERE NEAR 3 FEET WITH NORTHEAST-EAST
WINDS NEAR 8 KNOTS AT BUOY020 EARLY THIS MORNING. LIGHT NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY BEFORE THE
SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE TEXAS COAST MOVES EASTWARD TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT BUT
REMAIN LIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE IN TEXAS PANHANDLE
INTERACTING WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF WILL PRODUCE MODEST
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE MARINE AREAS. WINDS MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WILL RISE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS...WHICH WILL NUDGE SEAS UP TO 4 FEET
EACH DAY. LIGHTER WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WILL ALLOW SEAS TO RELAX TO 2
TO 3 FEET ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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