Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 030301
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1101 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SURFACE
TEMPERATURES TO COOL INTO THE 40S WITH SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS. A GRADUAL WARMING WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SKIES HAVE CLEARED
LATE THIS EVENING OUTSIDE OF SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS WHICH ARE MOST
PREVALENT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION.

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL RESULT IN GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP
INTO THE LOW 40S ACROSS THE REGION...EVEN SOME UPPER 30S OVER THE
TUG HILL PLATEAU AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. AT 1100 PM FOG HAS
STARTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY CLOSEST TO THE SURFACE
HIGH. FOG MAY BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...BUT
SHOULD BE MORE PATCHY ELSEWHERE...MAINLY IN VALLEYS AND PERHAPS
THE LAKE PLAINS. ANY FOG SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SHALLOW GROUND FOG
AND THUS DISSIPATE QUICKLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

DRY AIR...CLEAR SKIES AND AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION WILL
LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGHS CLIMB TO THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
NO CHANGES MADE THIS EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE NOSING BACK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FROM MAINE WILL
BE FIRM CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS WE CAN EXPECT
A PLEASANT...COMFORTABLE NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK INTO
THE 50S (40S SRN TIER VALLEYS/LEWIS CO).

THE SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT OFF THE COAST OF MAINE ON THURSDAY...WITH
ITS ASSOCIATED RETURN CIRCULATING WARMER MORE HUMID AIR BACK ACROSS
OUR REGION. THIS COULD ESTABLISH JUST ENOUGH DIURNAL BASED
INSTABILITY THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SRN TIER IN THE VCNTY OF A LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARY...SO WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY LOW CHC POPS FOR THAT AREA.
OTHERWISE IT SHOULD BE PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S.

WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD STILL BE WEDGED BACK ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING OUR
REGION FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO. AM NOT ANTICIPATING ANY ACTIVITY WITH
FROM THE APPROACHING FEATURE UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK...SO WILL CARRY
LOW CHC POPS THURSDAY EVENING FOR ANY DYING DIURNAL CONVECTION...AND
JUST SLGT CHC POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

ON FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA.
GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY JET DYNAMICS AND A FORECAST OF WEAK
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING...AM NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION FROM
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL THUS KEEP JUST CHC POPS IN PLACE.

BOTH THE MAINSTREAM GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOW IN AGREEMENT THAT
SPRAWLING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR JAMES BAY SHOULD PUSH
THE FRONT SOUTH TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES DURING THE COURSE OF
FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL TAPER OFF THE POPS OVERNIGHT WHILE LEAVING JUST
THE CHANCE FOR A LINGERING SHOWER LATE FOR ALL AREAS BUT THE IAG
FRONTIER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD SUPPRESS THE
MOISTURE FROM A STALLED FRONTAL FAR ENOUGH TO OUR SOUTH TO
ENCOURAGE DRY PLEASANT WEATHER ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...AS
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.

AS THIS HIGH MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON
SUNDAY...ONCE AGAIN...THE CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION AROUND SUCH A
FEATURE WILL LEAD TO WARMER MORE HUMID AIR TO RETURN TO OUR REGION
FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE
UPPER 70S FOR MOST AREAS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A RESULT...ALTHOUGH
SOME LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

THERE WILL BE A HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY THOUGH WHEN THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
SWING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

FOR TUESDAY...WEAK IMPULSES CIRCULATING AROUND A DEEP UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA COULD GENERATE MORE SHOWERS ACROSS OUR
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 03Z SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR OUTSIDE OF HIGH CLOUDS WITH
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. FOG HAS
STARTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE IT IS CLOSEST TO
THE SURFACE HIGH. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO LAST THROUGH 06Z...BUT
AFTER THIS PATCHY GROUND FOG WILL DEVELOP IN SOME AREAS. AT
BUF/IAG/ROC/JHW THE LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE
COVERAGE OF ANY FOG SO WILL LEAVE FOG OUT OF THESE LOCATIONS FOR
NOW. FOG SHOULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD NEAR ART...BUT CLIMATOLOGICALLY
IT IS RARE FOR ART TO FOG IN SO THE TAF WILL ONLY CARRY LIGHT MVFR
FOG EVEN THOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE THAT MORE DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP
NEAR WATERTOWN. ANY GROUND FOG WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE ON
WEDNESDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MINIMAL WAVES ON THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES...WITH THESE CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO THE START OF THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL/WCH
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/WCH
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS


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