Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KCAE 202121
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
521 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A DRY ATMOSPHERE IN
PLACE. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY ROLL THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...PROVIDING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL ENTER THE REGION BEHIND
THE FRONT...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE RETURN
POSSIBLE LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE OF GA WILL
SLOWLY SLIDE NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS OVER THE EASTERN MIDLANDS WITH OTHER LOCATIONS MOSTLY
CLEAR. SHOWERS CURRENTLY ALONG THE COAST AND OFFSHORE AND EXPECT
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT TO REMAIN CONFINED TO THE COASTAL AREAS.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 60S...WITH
A FEW OUTLYING LOCATIONS POSSIBLY SEEING THE UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL ENSURE FAIR WEATHER SUNDAY. UPPER CUT OFF LOW
AND SURFACE WAVE OFFSHORE WILL SHIFT NE IN RESPONSE TO NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY THAT WILL DIG INTO THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY
SUNDAY...AND SWING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC MONDAY. ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH OUR NORTHERN FA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...AND SLOWLY
ROLL THROUGH MONDAY. A DRY ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH
WITH NO LOW LEVEL ATLANTIC OR GULF TAP PROVIDES LIMITED MOISTURE FOR
THE FRONT TO WORK WITH. HOWEVER...WITH CONSIDERABLE UPPER LIFT
AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE...THOUGH MAINLY JUST TO OUR
NORTH...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CANT BE RULED OUT...WITH ISOLATED THUNDER
POSSIBLE MAINLY S FA ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT DURING TIME OF BEST
DIURNAL HEATING. BLENDED A VARIETY OF MODEL SOURCES FOR POP GRIDS
USING LOCAL TOOL...GIVING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FA. COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO FILTER IN LATE MONDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT. GUIDANCE INDICATES LOWS IN THE 50S FOR MON NT. LAST SUB 60
READING AT COLUMBIA WAS 57 ON JUNE 2.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRONT WILL STALL OFFSHORE. E CONUS UPPER TROUGH PROGGED TO RAPIDLY
LIFT NORTH LEAVING BEHIND A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE E GOMEX...WITH
UPPER HIGH BUILDING WEST TOWARDS THE SE US COAST. SURFACE HIGH
CENTER TO REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE NE...RIDGING DOWN INTO OUR
REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY INDICATES UPPER CUT OFF LOW TO
SLOWLY LIFT NORTH WITH UPPER HIGH CENTER SHIFTING SLIGHTLY
WEST...RESULTING IN A MOISTURE INCREASE FOR OUR REGION LATE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND. SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING TIMING AND EXTENT OF
MOISTURE INCREASE...AND WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING
ENTRENCHED ALONG THE EAST COAST...WEDGE CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP.
GENERALLY BLENDED ONGOING FORECAST WITH LATEST GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

FRONT REMAINS ALONG THE COAST WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS OVER
THE TAF SITES. CLOUDINESS WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST WITH DRIER
AIR REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE MIDLANDS. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET...WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
AROUND 5 KNOTS OVERNIGHT IN OGB. WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AROUND
7 KNOTS BETWEEN 15Z AND 16Z...AND WITH DRIER AIR ACROSS THE AREA
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.