Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000
FXUS62 KCAE 280310
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1010 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED...AND SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY AROUND 5 MPH
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND A COLD
ADVECTION PATTERN WILL CONTINUE. GUIDANCE NUMBERS OVERNIGHT STILL
SUPPORT LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TRANQUIL WEATHER EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD DOMINATED BY SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S
SOUTH DESPITE SUNNY SKIES. WINDS WILL BE MUCH LESS BREEZY THAN ON
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. SATURDAY WILL START OFF QUITE COOL IN THE UPPER 20S BUT
SHOULD WARM UP QUICKLY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ALLOWING A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
HELPING TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW AT 500MB
BECOMES MORE CONFLUENT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY
DROPPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. A STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE ABOVE NORMAL
WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.  NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
AT OR BELOW A HALF INCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UNCERTAINTIES CONTINUE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST REGARDING THE
EVOLUTION OF THE LONG TERM PATTERN LATE IN THE EXTENDED AS THE
DETERMINISTIC MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE DIFFERENT
SOLUTIONS.  BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW THE POLAR JET WELL TO THE NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A PAIR OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY.  THE GFS REMAINS PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
FEATURES RESULTING IN GENERALLY FLAT ZONAL 500MB FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES...WHILE THE ECMWF IS A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED WITH
THE 500MB FLOW DIGGING THE SECOND UPPER TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL PART
OF THE COUNTRY BY WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE AREA
LATE MONDAY AND THE GFS PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
FOLLOWED BY WEAK COLD AIR DAMMING CONDITIONS WITH PERSISTENT
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. THE ECMWF STALLS THE FRONT TO OUR NORTH WHILE
BRINGING A STRONGER FRONT THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

GIVEN THESE CONTINUED UNCERTAINTIES LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE
EXTENDED FORECAST WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN MIDLANDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY.  TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD ARE ALSO A BIT UNCERTAIN
BUT REASONABLE CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TUE-THU.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF FORECAST
PERIOD. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST. SOME WIND PLUS DRY AIR WILL PRECLUDE ANY FOG CONCERNS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$








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