Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
FXUS62 KCAE 300851
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
451 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016
Tropical Depression Bonnie nearly stationary along the SC coast
northeast of Charleston this morning. It will continue to move
slowly to the northeast along the coast through the day. This
will keep showers across the area for the next couple of days.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TD Bonnie will continue to effect the weather across the Midlands
and CSRA through today as it will slowly move to the northeast.
Morning radar composite shows a broad circulation in the vicinity
of Charleston/Georgetown counties. The deepest moisture continues
to feed northward on the east side up into eastern NC. But
additional band of light rain continue to rotate around the center
across the central/eastern Midlands. Due to the slow movement
expect this trend to continue through much of the day. Expect some
additional develop with daytime heating this afternoon. Best
chances for rainfall will be across the eastern Midlands/Pee Dee
regions. Further off to the southwest...towards the CSRA pops
will be lower. By tonight...the low will be tracking further off
to the northeast and expect best rain chances to push northeast
along with the the low. Guidance and current forecast for
afternoon temperatures looks reasonable and have stayed close to
consensus. Expect warmer temperatures across the CSRA with more
sun/less rain and slightly cooler temperatures toward the Pee Dee.
Tonight...have once again stayed close to consensus for overnight
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Tuesday through Tuesday night...should see more of a diurnal
trend with any rainfall as remnants of Bonnie are expected to be
along the southeastern coast of NC. Expect temperatures to begin
returning closer to normal by Tuesday. Overnight lows close to
guidance and a little above climo.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Longer range models in general agreement with the upper pattern
through the end of the week. The upper trough that has been
associated with Bonnie will be lifting slowly northeastward
Tuesday night into Wednesday. Behind this system some weak ridging
will be building in across the Southeast for Thursday and Friday.
Then for the Weekend a longwave trough will approach the region
from the upper mid-west/plains states. Both the ECMWF and GFS have
continued over the past few runs to produce a cutoff low as the
srn section of the trough slows and cuts off. Expect a diurnal
precip trend of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
through the end of the week. As the trough and associated surface
front move closer to the region...expect and increasing chance of
shra/tsra for the weekend. Have continued to stay close to
previous forecast for temperatures, with readings generally at or
slightly above normal through the period.
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Tropical Depression Bonnie nearly stationary near the central SC
coast, and is forecast to move very slowly to the NE up the coast.
Current radar indicating scattered light rain showers. Surface
observations indicating mainly VFR across the CSRA, AGS/DNL, with
MVFR CIGS just NE/E of CAE/CUB, with IFR at OGB and points east.
Trends suggest continued VFR for AGS/DNL, with periods of MVFR
possible at CAE/CUB, and continued IFR CIGS at OGB this morning.
Gradual diurnal improvement expected today. Diurnal heating could
promote additional scattered convection, appearing to mainly favor
the central and eastern FA. For now, will handle with VCSH for
CAE/CUB/OGB. Threat of fog or CIG restrictions late tonight/early
Tuesday morning, mainly after 06Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Late night/early morning fog and CIG
restrictions possible through the period. Slight chance of afternoon
showers and a possible thunderstorm through Thursday. Better chance
of thunderstorms Friday/Saturday.