Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 020050
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
850 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NEAR THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE WEEK AND BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER. MOISTURE WILL BE ESPECIALLY
HIGH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AFTERNOON CONVECTION INITIATED EARLY AND HAS CONTINUED THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE STORMS RESULTING IN
SCATTERED WIND DAMAGE AND SOME LARGE HAIL. RADAR TRENDS OVER THE
PAST HOUR OR SO INDICATE THE STRONGER AND DEEPER CONVECTION HAS
IS WANING AND THE STORMS THAT ARE STILL ONGOING ARE GENERALLY LOW
TOPPED WITH 50DBZ CORES AT OR BELOW 20KFT. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDER MAY LINGER THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS BUT SHOULD CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAKENING TREND AND DISSIPATE
BY 06Z AS THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES.

RAIN COOLED AIR HAS LED TO RELATIVELY SMALL DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG/STRATUS DEVELOP
IN THE PREDAWN HOURS. OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE STALLED FRONT AND RELATIVELY COLD AIR ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD HELP CAUSE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE PATTERN FAVORS THE HIGHER GUIDANCE
POPS. HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 1.8 OF
AN INCH. THE NAM HAS WEAK INSTABILITY TUESDAY WITH SURFACE-BASED
LI/S -3 TO -4. THIS APPEARS REASONABLE BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT APPEARS LOW.
THE CORE OF THE H5 COLD POOL WILL BE CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY AND THE NAM DISPLAYS SURFACE-BASED LI/S -4 TO -6. THERE
MAY BE A GREATER RISK OF STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. WE LEANED TOWARD
THE COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS. USED
THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY THE DIFFUSE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE LINGERING IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE MODELS SHOW UPPER TROUGHING LINGERING.
THE ECMWF HAS SHOWN MORE RIDGING AND DRYING TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD COMPARED TO THE GFS. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS POPS RANGE FROM
40 TO 60 PERCENT THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AND 10 TO 40 PERCENT
SUNDAY. THE MOS HAS TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BY EARLY EVENING...SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
MIDLANDS AND CSRA. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SEEM TO INDICATE SLOW
WEAKENING. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF VCTS OR -TSRA AT ALL TAF SITES
UNTIL AROUND 04Z BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING. MVFR
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TUESDAY
ESPECIALLY AT OGB/AGS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR BECAUSE CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM EARLIER RAINFALL COULD AFFECT
VSBYS/CIGS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST INTO
THE SE US OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. COLDER AIR ALOFT AND AMPLE
MOISTURE WILL FUEL SCATTERED CONVECTION ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MVFR WITH MORNING STRATUS AND FOG
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$



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