Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 011021
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
621 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY INTO NEXT WEEK. AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL BRING
INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO OUR WEST. FRONT AND WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE COAST...WITH IN SITU WEDGE TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN CAROLINAS. AN UPPER IMPULSE...CURRENTLY MOVING NE ACROSS
THE W CAROLINAS...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
THIS MORNING...WHILE ANOTHER IMPULSE...CURRENTLY OVER MS...MOVES
INTO OUR REGION LATE TODAY. MODELS SHIFT THE LOW LEVEL JET AND BEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO OUR N AND NE TODAY...WHILE
APPEARING TO MOVE THE FRONT SLIGHTLY INLAND. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS OVERALL BEST PRECIP COVERAGE TODAY...ESPECIALLY
EARLY...MAINLY TO OUR N AND E...WITH DIURNAL CONVECTION POSSIBLY
DEVELOPING LATER ELSEWHERE. SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO PLACEMENT AND
TIMING OF ANY DIURNAL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESPECIALLY GIVEN CLOUD COVER. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS
IT COULD FAVOR THE SOUTH AND EAST FA CLOSER TO THE FRONT...WITH
OTHER INDICATIONS OF SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE AS WELL.
GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS...THINK AN AVERAGE OF GOOD CHANCE
POPS SHOULD SUFFICE FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR MOST OF THE
FA. SEVERE CONVECTION NOT ANTICIPATED. WIND SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
GENERALLY WEAK TODAY WITH LIFTED INDICES AROUND -2C TO -3C AND WINDS
AT BOTH 850MB AND 500MB AT OR BELOW 25 KNOTS. ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN
PLACE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLOSE TO 2 INCHES AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC WITH LOW LCL AROUND 2000 FT. THINK
HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED FLOODING POTENTIAL IS GREATEST RISK WITH
AROUND 10KFT WARM CLOUD DEPTH SUPPORTING EFFICIENT RAINFALL AND
STORM MOTIONS AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS. TRAINING OF STORMS WOULD ALSO BE
A CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAIN. WPC HAS AREA OUTLOOKED IN SLIGHT RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST...WITH A MOIST ATMOSPHERE
REMAINING IN PLACE. IT APPEARS THE FRONT AND AXIS OF BEST
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CAROLINAS...WITH WEAK IN SITU WEDGE ACROSS THE W
CAROLINAS. GUIDANCE POPS CONTINUE HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED AND WET INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION PROMOTING
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC. THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL LATER IN THE WEEK WITH DECREASING CHANCES OF
RAIN. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN AROUND 2 INCHES OR GREATER
THROUGH TUESDAY...DECREASING TO LESS THAN 1.75 INCHES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. CHANCES FOR RAIN REMAIN HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY MONDAY...
DECREASING TO LOW CHANCE BY THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND NEAR 90 THURSDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR/LIFR CEILINGS EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH IMPROVEMENT BY 18Z.

MOIST EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW
OVERRUNNING A WARM FRONT STALLED TO THE SOUTH AND WITH A WEAK
UPSLOPE COMPONENT.  ABUNDANT MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE WITH IFR
STRATUS BLANKETING THE FORECAST AREA. SOME LOWER VSBYS NOTED SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE TERMINALS BUT NOT CONFIDENT THAT VSBYS WILL FALL
INTO THE LIFR/IFR RANGE.  EXPECT LOW CIGS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT LATE MORNING AND A RETURN TO
VFR CONDITIONS BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY AND INTERACT WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING.  HOWEVER...CONFLICTING MODEL
GUIDANCE MAKES IT TOUGH TO PIN DOWN EXACT LOCATION AND TIMING SO
WILL ONLY INCLUDE VICINITY SHOWERS AND NO PREVAILING RESTRICTIONS AT
THIS TIME.  LOW CLOUDS AGAIN EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY DUE TO AN EASTERLY ISENTROPIC
FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$





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