Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 231551
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1051 AM EST Fri Feb 23 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Near record temperatures will continue through the end of the
week. High pressure centered off the coast will bring warm and
moist air into region through Saturday. A cold front will cross
the area Sunday into Monday bringing a high chance of showers.
Temperatures will remain above normal next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure off the mid-Atlantic coast will continue to bring
warm, moist flow in to the forecast area today. Conditions will
be similar to the past few days with near or above record high
temperatures and partly cloudy skies this afternoon. Synoptic
scale subsidence over the region will produce a prominent mid-
level capping inversion inhibiting convective development.
Although late this afternoon/early evening an upper- level
disturbance will move across the forecast area. At the surface
the HRRR indicates a sea breeze pushing into the eastern FA
during this time. The capping inversion and loss of daytime
heating should be enough to prevent showers developing in the
east but a brief isolated shower cannot be ruled out.

Late tonight and early Saturday morning, abundant low-level
moisture will likely result in areas of fog and low stratus. A
20 kt low level jet suggests widespread low clouds will be more
likely than widespread dense fog. The HRRR indicated dense fog
is most likely in the CSRA and eastern Midlands where dewpoints
are higher.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The upper ridge will weaken some on Saturday and surface high
pressure will begin to retreat eastward a bit. Moisture will
deepen some across the area on Saturday and into Saturday night
although forcing for showers appears weak. Models soundings
appear capped. Cut pops slightly from previous forecast with
focus still west of the area through Saturday night near frontal
boundary across Tennessee and Alabama. Above normal
temperatures expected once again on Saturday with highs in the
lower 80s. Overnight temperatures will also be mild in the lower
60s.

Sunday...The upper ridge moves southeast across Florida with
increasing southwest flow aloft across the area. Broad trough in
the Midwest to Great Lakes region will drive cold front into
the region Sunday ahead of he front will move into the region.
The ECMWF appears slower than GFS moving front east of the
Mountains with deeper moisture Sunday night into Monday. This is
supported by Nam. Either way increasing pops Sunday from west to
east during the day. The GFS suggests a increasing deep shear
during the afternoon and evening and there is some weak
instability...so mentioned isolated thunderstorms. Some cooling
expected in the Piedmont and west Midlands as front moves into
the area with showers but temperatures still well above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Southwesterly flow will bring deep moisture into the area with
increasing chances of rain through the day Sunday and into
Monday. The best chance for rain appears to be Sunday night
through Monday morning. The front is expected to be off the
coast by late Monday night with high pressure building back into
the area. The ECMWF is a little slower moving the front through
the area than the GFS. Tuesday is expected to be dry with high
pressure over the area. High pressure will move off the coast on
Wednesday with moisture and the chance of rain returning to the
forecast area. Unsettled conditions will continue through the
end of the work week with broad upper trough in the Midwest/area
in warm/moist advection ahead of deepening low in the Midwest.
Temperatures through the period will remain above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Predominantly VFR conditions through the daytime and evening
with restrictions returning tonight.

Expect partly cloudy skies through the day with surface winds
from 5 to 10 mph out of the south. Although cumulus will be
present rain is not expected. Stratus and fog will develop
during the early morning and sunrise hours Saturday. A 20 kt
low level jet suggests widespread low clouds will be more
likely than widespread dense fog. The HRRR indicated dense fog
is most likely at fog prone AGS and in the eastern Midlands,
including OGB, where dewpoints are higher.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions possible in late night
and early morning fog and stratus Sunday morning. Chance of
showers and associated restrictions Sunday afternoon through
Monday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Near record heat expected again today.
CAE record 82 set in 1962. Warmest low 63 set in 1909.
AGS record 82 set in 2012. Warmest low 63 set in 1909.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$


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