Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
FXUS62 KCAE 280800
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
400 AM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017
A series of troughs moving through the area today will trigger
some showers and possibly a few thunderstorms. A cold front will
move through the area tonight. High pressure will build into
the region Thursday from the north while moisture increases
across the area. This may set up unsettled conditions for the
later half of the week with below normal temperatures possible
Thursday but warmer than normal over the weekend.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Early this morning...Regional radar showing the first band of
showers and thunderstorms associated with an upper disturbance
progressing through the Upstate of SC toward the western Midlands
while weakening. A few isolated cells have developed in north-central
Georgia and are progressing through the CSRA and into the central
Midlands. A secondary band of showers continues to push east
from northeastern Georgia into western South Carolina. Hi-res
models show weakening with shower/storms so have kept pops
highest west although still only chance/slight chance.
Temperatures appear on track with morning lows in the upper 50s
to lower 60s.
Today...The upper trough axis will shift east of the forecast
area by midday with an upper ridge building over the
Southeastern states in its wake. The strongest dynamics will be
north of the area but still expect scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms to develop early this afternoon. Instability
appears limited with LI values around -1 to -2. Drier air will
begin moving into the forecast area from the west by late
afternoon with model precipitable water values in the western
portion of the area dropping below an inch. A weak surface front
will be approaching from the northwest late in the day but with
limited moisture and the developing upper ridge, convective
development will be limited. Shower activity expected to begin
diminishing by 20Z. Warm air advection ahead of the approaching
frontal boundary will promote afternoon high temperatures in the
lower to middle 80s.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
With drier air working its way into the area behind the front
early in the evening, showers/storms will be limited and pushing
out of the region. Skies should be clearing with the drier
airmass. Winds may remain around 5 mph through the night
tonight behind the front. Overnight lows a few degrees cooler
than previous few nights, with readings in the middle to upper
By Wednesday and Wednesday night, ridging both aloft and at the
surface will be over the area, keeping conditions dry.
Temperatures through the day will warm well above normal with
the expected subsidence over the region, and with plenty of
sunshine. Readings climb into the lower to middle 80s. Moisture
Wednesday night may be on the increase across the north, and can
not rule out an isolated shower late in the night or towards
morning. Lows in the middle to upper 50s.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Rain returns back to the forecast for Thursday and Friday as a
strong system begins pushing towards the region. Upper flow
becomes out of the southwest again ahead of the upper low, and
this will bring Gulf moisture northward into the area. Early
in the day Thursday, still anticipate a dry forecast, but pops
will be on the increase during the afternoon and into the
evening. Highest pops in the CSRA and western Midlands Thursday
afternoon. The deep upper low will move from the Mississippi
valley to the east Thursday night into Friday. Warm front may
move north Thursday night through Friday. Models indicting good
chance to likely pops through Friday. Potential exists for a few
strong thunderstorms Friday afternoon. Dry conditions over the
weekend, although moisture may return early next week. Temperatures
remain above normal.
.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions expected throughout the 24-hr TAF period outside
of shower and thunderstorms that pass over the terminals today.
Regional radar this morning shows the first large area of
showers and thunderstorms associated with a series of upper
disturbances currently in the Upstate of SC while a few
isolated cells have begun moving into the CSRA from the
southwest. Models show activity weakening as it progresses
eastward so have not included any restrictions in current TAF
issuance. However, will continue to monitor radar trends and
make amendments as necessary. The threat for fog/stratus is low
this morning due to mixing and increasing clouds. Once the band
of showers/storms moves through the area this morning, expect a
break in activity through midday. Potential for scattered
convection after 16z with highest potential further north. Have
included vicinity showers through late afternoon. Drier air
will move into the area late this afternoon/evening with skies
becoming mostly clear. Light southerly winds this morning will
pick up out of the southwest to around 10 to 15 mph this
afternoon. Winds will diminish with sunset becoming northerly
overnight as a frontal boundary shifts east.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions possible Thursday as
wedge conditions develop over the area. Increasing confidence in
showers and thunderstorms Thursday night and Friday morning as a
cold front crosses the region.