Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
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578 FXUS62 KCAE 100552 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 152 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will approach the area tonight and pass through on Friday, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will move in for the weekend. The high will move offshore Monday and increasing moisture will support showers and thunderstorms returning for next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Convection has moved well south of the area with clouds rapidly clearing from west to east. To the west cirrus debris clouds continue moving toward the area however expect most of these to remain over the southern half of the forecast area and continue to thin as they move toward the forecast area. With plenty of low level moisture the main concern for the overnight shifts to development of stratus and fog. With some wind along with a weak low level jet and some clouds drifting over the area expect some patchy fog and stratus to develop during the early morning hours. As fog and stratus would typically be thickening and lowering around sunrise additional clouds ahead of the next line of convection will be entering the area along with increasing surface winds. This should begin mixing the fog and stratus out just prior to the morning commute. Overnight lows will be in the mid 60s for most locations. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Friday...Thunderstorms will be approaching the Savannah River around dawn and should move through the remainder of the CWA from west to east during the morning hours, exiting the eastern area around noon. The threat for severe weather is lower with less available instability expected Friday morning. During the afternoon, the cold front will move through. This could bring another round of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Temperatures will remain near normal. Friday night...There may be a few lingering showers and thunderstorms in the far east for a few hours in the evening, but then drier and cooler air will move in for the remainder of Friday night as the cold front moves offshore and high pressure builds in behind the front. Temperatures will be about 10 degrees cooler. Saturday and Saturday night...Mostly clear skies will prevail under high pressure with temps running just a little below normal. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Sunday will be another dry day, with light winds and temps warming up again close to normal. Monday...high pressure will move offshore, bringing low level southerly and mid level southwesterly flow. This will increase temps a bit, but also increase moisture in the form of clouds and maybe some late day showers. Tuesday...An upper low will be moving through the Ohio Valley on Tuesday, with an upper trof trailing to the south. This will trigger widespread showers and thunderstorms over the area, especially in the afternoon and evening hours. Temps will be a little below normal due to the significant cloud cover and occasional rain. Wednesday and Thursday...Additional scattered afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms are expected as more weak disturbances move by in the southwesterly flow aloft. Timing of these is traditionally difficult this far out, so details will be changeable as we get into next week. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Restrictions anticipated through the early morning before returning to VFR. High level cloud debris continues to spread over the area, but it has bee thinning as it does. This should lead to low ceilings; likely IFR at times. These low ceilings are somewhat dependent on how long the high level clouds hang on. Fog is also anticipated, but don`t expect fog to be dense due to elevated low level winds. Again, the fog potential is dependent on the high level cloudiness. Rain chances are low today, but there is potential for some activity in the 12z-18z timeframe. West to southwest winds are expected to pick up after around 18z, gusting to 15-20 kts. A front passes through around 00z, causing a wind shift to the northwest and remaining gusty for a few hours before diminishing late in the TAF period. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Showers and thunderstorms are possible Monday and Tuesday along with associated restrictions. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$