Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000
FXUS62 KCAE 041033
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
633 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE MIDLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
OFF THE COAST BY MID-MORNING. A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION TODAY. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE MIDLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST BY MID-MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL DIMINISH. A DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
TODAY. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FROM MID-MORNING INTO THE EVENING AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FALL TO AROUND A HALF INCH AND DEWPOINTS
COOL INTO THE 40S AND 50S WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE AREA COULD BRING BACK SOME CLOUDINESS THIS
AFTERNOON. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE WILL BE COUNTERED
BY DOWNSLOPE FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 70S WEST TO AROUND 80 EAST.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL
CLOSE OFF AS IT DIVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON DRIVING A
DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. KEPT A DRY FORECAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT GIVEN A STABLE AIRMASS AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW. MOS
GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SINK SOUTHWARD OVER THE CAROLINAS
ON THURSDAY AND THE COMBINATION OF STRONG HEIGHT FALLS...STEEP
LAPSE RATES AROUND 8-9 C/KM...AND 500MB TEMPS AROUND -25C SHOULD
SUPPORT AT LEAST DIURNAL ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH SOME SMALL HAIL OR
GRAUPEL POSSIBLE...DESPITE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ONLY AROUND A
HALF INCH. KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS AND PEE
DEE REGION BENEATH THE COOLEST AIR ALOFT. SHOWERS SHOULD
DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING IN THE EVENING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY WITH DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING DOWNSLOPING FLOW.
GIVEN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...COOL AIR
ALOFT AND WEAK INSTABILITY...HAVE INDICATED SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN MIDLANDS DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER POTENT
UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY
PUSHING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA.  POOLING MOISTURE
ALONG THE FRONT RAISES PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ABOVE AN INCH AND
MODELS INDICATE SOME WEAK TO POSSIBLY MODERATE INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING WHICH COULD SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. A DETERRING FACTOR FOR
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE THE DOWNSLOPING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT.

THE FRONT BECOMES DIFFUSE BENEATH A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE MONDAY BUT
THEN REDEVELOPS AS A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY NORTH
OF THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH LIFTING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.  AT THIS TIME WILL HOLD A DRY FORECAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT DEPENDING ON WHERE THE WARM FRONT DEVELOPS...MAY
NEED TO ADD SOME POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BEGIN BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE
LOWER 50S...THEN GRADUALLY MODERATE WARMER TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY EXPECTED
TO RETURN TO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND SHOULD PUSH
EAST OF THE TERMINALS BY MID-MORNING. VFR CEILINGS CONTINUE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...BUT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
THAT SKIES SHOULD CLEAR ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND DRIER AIR
BEGINS TO ADVECT IN. A FEW TO SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS SHOULD
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING...WITH INCREASING
MAINLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE. BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AT THE
TERMINALS...WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 15 TO 20 KT. WINDS WILL LIGHTEN
TONIGHT...BUT REMAIN COUPLED FROM THE WEST DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF THE
DISTURBANCE ALOFT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$


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