Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 042338
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
738 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN NC COAST WILL
CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT AND AWAY FROM THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. A RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE OVER THE AREA WILL LIMIT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AN UPPER TROUGH AND INCREASED MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO BETTER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY
EXPECTATIONS OF DRIER AIR RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN NC COAST WILL CONTINUE MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN CSRA
HAVE WEAKENED OVER THE PAST HOUR AND EXPECT REMAINING SHOWERS TO
DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AT MANY LOCATIONS WHICH WILL
COMBINE WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT TO YIELD LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION WITH A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST. A GENERALLY DRY ATMOSPHERE TO REMAIN
IN PLACE...THOUGH THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF SOME MOISTURE
INCREASE DURING THE DAY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS AS SOME
MOISTURE SHIFTS SLOWLY NORTH AROUND UPPER HIGH CENTER TO OUR SE
AND AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NW. WILL
RELEGATE SLIGHT CHANCE DIURNAL POPS MAINLY TO THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. DUE TO RECENT DRY CONDITIONS...WILL
CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARDS WARMER GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS...WITH MAX
TEMPS NEAR OR JUST OVER 100 POSSIBLE WED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE CENTER WILL SHIFT EAST FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MEAN UPPER LONG
WAVE TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE E CONUS. SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL
UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE REGION
THURSDAY AND MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE PROGGED AS MOISTURE FROM THE GULF SHIFTS
NORTH AHEAD OF IT. GFS PROJECTED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES MAINLY FOR THURSDAY. POPS WILL
INCREASE TO AT LEAST CHANCE...WITH BEST CHANCES FRIDAY. GFS SHOWS
BEST MOISTURE SHIFTING OFFSHORE SATURDAY AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES
OFFSHORE WITH APPEARANCE OF GENERALLY DRY AIR REMAINING OVER THE
REGION SUNDAY. SO...MINIMAL POPS EXPECTED SAT/SUN. WEAK UPPER
IMPULSES ALONG WITH SOME EXPECTED INCREASE IN MOISTURE MAY PROVIDE
SOME SLIGHT INCREASE IN POPS MON/TUE...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LIMITED. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
90S...WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DRY AIR ALOFT AND NOCTURNAL COOLING COULD
LEAD TO FOG BUT THE LOWEST LAYERS HAVE DRIED COMPARED TO THE LAST
FEW DAYS. ALSO...THE MODELS INDICATE A LOW-LEVEL JET WHICH SHOULD
HELP CAUSE ENOUGH MIXING TO LIMIT FOG. MOST OF THE NAM AND GFS MOS
PLUS THE SREF GUIDANCE MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS. STRONG HEATING AND
CONVERGENCE INTO THE HEAT TROUGH IN THE FORECAST AREA MAY HELP
SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH CONTINUED
SHALLOW MOISTURE COVERAGE SHOULD BE ISOLATED. THE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AT THIS
TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG AND AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
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