Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 231742

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
142 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017

Surface high pressure centered over the Great Lakes Region will
extend southward into our area through Monday. High pressure will
weaken a bit as Hurricane Maria moves northward off the Carolina
coast Monday through Thursday. Above normal temperatures will cool
for the end of next week behind a moisture limited cold front.


An upper level trough over the Deep South will shift westward
today. Mid and low level high pressure will build in from the
north producing a capping inversion, inhibiting convective
development. The air mass also appears drier today with
satellite derived PWAT values lower than the past couple of
days. Therefore we expect minimal, if any, shower and
thunderstorm development today. Model guidance supports low
PoPs with values less than 10 percent.

Temperatures will remain above normal today with highs around
90 degrees. Model temperature guidance is likely too cool given
recent verification.

Tonight, models suggest a stronger nocturnal jet and less low
level moisture than last night, indicating a lower threat of
patchy fog. Expect mostly clear skies and temperatures in the
mid 60s.


An upper level ridge over the Northeastern and Mid Atlantic States
will continue extending into the Carolinas through Monday. A weak
upper low will drift westward along the Gulf Coast states as Maria
moves northward well off the FL/GA coast. Aside from increased waves
and swells along the coast no impacts are expected from Hurricane
Maria. Surface high pressure centered over the Ohio River Valley
will extend across much of the eastern half of the country. A north
to northeast low level wind flow will keep a relatively dry airmass
across the region. Models have been consistently showing above
normal temperatures with with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to
lower 90s and overnight lows in the 60s.


Models show a pattern shift taking place for the latter half of next
week. The trough/ridge over the west/east on Tuesday will transition
to a ridge/trough over the west/east by Friday.

Surface high pressure extending from the eastern Great Lakes to the
Gulf of Mexico through Wednesday will weaken as Maria moves
northward off the Carolina coast through Thursday. Although the
official track of Maria has shifted slightly westward, Maria is
forecast to remain offshore with no impacts for Midlands and
CSRA...other than an increase in clouds and wind. A moisture limited
frontal boundary moving through on Friday will bring cooler
temperatures for next weekend.


High pressure ridging into the mid-Atlantic will continue to
push drier air into the region. Drier air and a mid-level
capping inversion will inhibit convective development this
afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms are not likely. Generally
expect light NE surface winds at all TAF sites but may become
variable at times.

Tonight, models suggest a stronger low level jet and drier low
levels than the previous night. The threat of widespread fog
appears low. However fog prone areas, including AGS, may still
see some shallow ground fog or low stratus given mostly clear
skies, light winds and persistence forecasting. Model guidance
is consistent suggesting VFR conditions at all TAF sites.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Late night/early morning
fog/stratus possible each morning...mainly at the fog prone
sites AGS and OGB.




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