Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
FXUS62 KCAE 240508
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1208 AM EST Tue Jan 24 2017
A strong low pressure center over the Carolinas will move
off the Mid-Atlantic Coast tonight. The air mass will be drying
overnight as the low moves slowly away from the area. A dry
pressure ridge moves into the area Tuesday and will remain over
the area through Tuesday night. The ridge will move off the
coast Wednesday as a cold front approaches from the west. The
front will move through the area Wednesday night and early
Thursday with scattered showers.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Upper and surface lows to our NE will continue to track to the
NE. Wrap around moisture and cloudiness remains across our
region with a few patches of light rain. Will expect the rain to
diminish and move out of our FA in the next few hours, per
latest high resolution models, along with gradually decreasing
cloudiness late tonight. Though pressure gradient will tighten
over our FA tonight as the low moves away, leading to some
increase in winds, especially CSRA, it appears that wind gusts
will remain below lake wind advisory (lwa) criteria. LWA
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
It should be dry with less wind Tuesday as ridging moves into
the area. The models show the ridge over the area Tuesday night
and off the coast Wednesday. Expect clear skies Tuesday and some
high cloudiness Tuesday night and Wednesday as the upper ridge
axis shifts over and east of the forecast area. Warmer than
normal temperatures through the period with ridge building aloft
and pre-frontal conditions. Used guidance mean temperatures
through the period except slightly warmer Wednesday.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A cold front is forecast to push through the forecast area
late Wednesday night or early Thursday. Models suggest limited
moisture and isentropic lift with cold advection developing by
09z Thursday. Modest short wave trough at 700 mb supporting lift
as front moves thru. MOS around 30 to 50 percent...so expect
scattered showers. Below normal temperatures behind the front
and dry conditions as cold air mass moves south from Canada into
the eastern CONUS.
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Regional satellite still showing broken skies, with vfr ceilings.
Clouds will continue to push eastward tonight as the low moves
up the east coast and downsloping flow east of the mountains
begins to take hold. Skies have cleared at AGS and DNL, and will
become mostly clear at the other sites around 08Z. West to
northwest winds will prevail, with wind speeds 5 to 10 knots and
gusts between 15 to 20 knots possible. The pressure gradient
will weaken Tuesday afternoon, allowing for diminishing wind
speeds after sunset. Fog is not expected to develop due to winds
staying up overnight and drier air near the surface.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...There will be chance of showers with
associated restrictions Thursday as a weak cold front crosses the