Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC

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FXUS62 KCHS 191719
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
1219 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in through Tuesday. A coastal low may
move up the coast Tuesday and Tuesday night, followed by a
second low pressure system late in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Today: No significant changes were made to the previous
forecast. Temperatures early this afternoon with generally in
the lower 60s inland and mid 60s closer to the coast. Should see
a bit more warming before temperatures level off given the
increased cold air advection aloft. Northwest winds will remain
gusty near 20-25 mph at times, generally diminishing as the
afternoon wears on.

Tonight: The surface high to the west will begin to bridge
across the southern Appalachians and into the lee which will
help to maintain the gradient along the coast and the adjacent
coastal waters. Inland areas will likely maintain at least some
light flow for much of the night before decoupling late. With
clear skies and the expected configuration of the surface high,
the best radiational cooling conditions will favor locations
inland of I-95. Forecast lows in these areas are in the low to
mid 30s and patchy to scattered frost is anticipated. Will
continue to highlight the possible need for a Frost Advisory in
the Hazardous Weather Outlook.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Dry, cool high pressure will prevail on Monday with below
normal temperatures in the low to mid 60s. Temperatures will
rebound on Tuesday as the surface high shifts offshore and a
warm air advection pattern commences. As an upper trough
develops over the eastern United States, a weak surface low will
move up the Southeast coast late Tuesday and Tuesday night. The
best chance for showers will be along the immediate coast and
the coastal waters, though isolated showers will be possible
farther inland due to weak isentropic ascent. Dry high pressure
will rebuild on Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A strengthening upper shortwave over the northern Gulf of
Mexico on Thursday will lift northeast through Friday night,
pushing another surface low up the coast. A fairly sharp
precipitation gradient is possible with inland areas seeing
little to no precip while much greater coverage occurs over the
coastal areas. Dry weather currently anticipated next weekend.
Below- normal temperatures will prevail.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR with breezy/gusty NW winds this afternoon, reaching close
to 20 kt at times.

Extended Aviation Outlook: MVFR ceilings may develop late
Monday night and persist through Thursday. Brief vsby
restrictions in scattered showers late Tuesday through Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Today: Winds will remain elevated behind a cold front but
generally diminish through the day. Small Craft Advisories will
remain in effect for the offshore waters this afternoon where it
will take a bit longer for winds/seas to subside sufficiently.

Tonight: A surface high pressure center will slide in to the
northwest and north of the local waters. As it does, winds will
steadily veer to northerly and eventually northeasterly. The
pressure gradient will be tightest along the coast and over the
local waters, keeping speeds in the 15-20 knot range. Seas will
remain in the 2-4 ft range.

A series of high pressure systems will affect the waters next
week. An area of low pressure may shift up the coast Tuesday
into Wednesday, followed by another system Thursday into Friday.
A prolonged northeast gradient will result, with increasing
winds/seas mid to late week, potentially necessitating Small
Craft Advisories.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ374.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...JRL/RJB
MARINE...JRL/RJB



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