Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC

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FXUS62 KCHS 240246
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1046 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
OVERNIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT COULD DRIFT IN FROM THE NORTH
THIS WEEKEND BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION NEXT
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN/LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL SUPPORT
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS FROM N/NE TO S/SW
OVERNIGHT...SUPPORTING A MODEST INCREASE IN NE WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 50S MOST AREAS EXCEPT
IN THE 60S AT THE COAST.

PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP FOR A TIME...ESPECIALLY UNTIL NE WINDS
INCREASE...BUT POTENTIAL COVERAGE/IMPACT OF FOG DOES NOT WARRANT A
MENTION WITHIN PUBLIC FORECASTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...WITHIN A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SHIFT OFFSHORE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ANY
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH ENHANCED MOISTURE DUE TO THE ONSHORE
FLOW SHOULD BE LIMITED TO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED.
THEREFORE...EXPECT RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WITH
SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH PERHAPS
SOME GREATER COVERAGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE
MOISTURE WILL BE MORE PLENTIFUL. THERE HAS BEEN A NOTICEABLE COOL
BIAS IN THE MOS BASED GUIDANCE RECENTLY...SO DESPITE THE ONSHORE
SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL INDICATE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 IN
SOUTHEAST SC AND IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA. THE SEA
BREEZE WILL BE RATHER PRONOUNCED HOWEVER...WITH MANY LOCATIONS ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST NOT SEEING TEMPERATURES GET OUT OF THE UPPER
60S.

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED NOT FAR OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WILL DRIFT FARTHER FROM SHORE THROUGH THE NIGHT...ALLOWING A
WEAK WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA AND WINDS TO VEER
SOUTHERLY. ENHANCED CONVERGENCE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL
GENERATE ISOLATED CONVECTION...WHICH COULD ADVECT ONSHORE ACROSS
SOUTH COASTAL SC OVERNIGHT. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS
NORTH OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY...BUT FORCING FOR ASCENT AND
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ALONG ITS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY COULD RESULT IN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY. RAIN-FREE
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK/DRY COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST FRIDAY WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND LIMITED MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE APPEARS TO BE A DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT TO THE WINDS ON SATURDAY...WHICH SHOULD EASILY BOOST
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 80S...IF NOT WARMER IN SOME LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONDITIONS LOOK FAIRLY DRY TO START OFF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
LINGERS OVER THE AREA WELL AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING
EAST OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG
WITH MID LVL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A
WARMING TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM. IN GENERAL...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 80S SUNDAY
AND POSSIBLY MONDAY BEFORE COOLING A FEW DEGREES FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ON MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW IN PLACE...BEFORE PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. GREATEST
CHANCES OF PRECIP SHOULD OCCUR AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES OVER THE
REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY. 00Z TAF DETAILS
ADDRESS CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION/SPEED.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL GIVE WAY TO A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT/INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FROM THE NORTH. PER LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING TRENDS AND NEW
GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE 00Z NAM...LOWERED WIND SPEEDS A BIT TO
10-15 KT OVERNIGHT...INITIALLY ACROSS SC WATERS THEN ACROSS GA
WATERS LATE TONIGHT. SEAS STARTING 1-2 FT WITHIN NEARSHORE WATERS
AND 2-3 FT BEYOND 20 NM WILL BUILD TO 2-3 FT NEARSHORE AND
AS HIGH AS 3-4 FT BEYOND 20 NM LATE.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE
THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY...VEERING NORTHERLY WINDS TO SOUTHERLY
BY EARLY WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN QUICKLY ADVANCE OVER
THE WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MORE HIGH PRESSURE TO FOLLOW INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AT OR BELOW 15 KTS AND SEAS BUILDING NO
HIGHER THAN 3-5 FT...HIGHEST IN OUTER GEORGIA WATERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SPR
NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...JAQ
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...JAQ/SPR






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