Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC
FXUS62 KCHS 010514
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
114 AM EDT WED JUN 1 2016
The remnant low pressure of Bonnie will continue to slowly move
northeastward away from the region through Wednesday night. A weak
cold front could then approach the region late in the week and
become stationary this weekend.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
No major changes were made for the early morning update. Nudged
overnight lows up a degree or so for many locations per going
trends. Although an isolated shower/tstm could certainly fire just
about anywhere overnight, especially along the remnant outflow
boundary dropping south through Southeast Georgia and far
Southern South Carolina, probabilities will remain <20%. Shallow
ground fog will likely develop in areas that received rain
yesterday. The fog could become locally dense, so trends will be
monitored carefully through sunrise.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Wednesday through Friday: The overall pattern will remain
essentially unchanged in the mid to late week time period. Aloft,
subtle ridging will become more prominent late in the week as an
upper low develops across the southern plains. At the surface, very
weak high pressure will settle in just offshore and extend westward
into the forecast area. Overall, the result will be a somewhat
typical early June pattern featuring scattered diurnal convection.
The severe threat will be low each day thanks to the lack of any
significant large scale forcing and unimpressive severe parameters
noted in model soundings. However, we can never totally discount the
potential for an isolated strong to severe storm, especially where
boundary interactions occur. Highs are forecast to be in the upper
80s to low 90s with overnight lows around 70.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Models in pretty good agreement through the long term period. Weak
front stalled over the region will likely dissipate over the weekend,
before another cold front approaches and crosses the area early
next week. Typical diurnal convection expected, with perhaps
greater coverage Sunday and Monday with the front in the vicinity.
Tuesday looks to be the driest day of the period as the bulk of
precipitation associated with the front shifts offshore and high
pressure begins to build in from the northwest. Temperatures
mainly near normal.
.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR. Shallow ground fog is likely, mainly at KCHS, but no
meaningful restriction to vsby is expected attm. Scattered
showers/tstms are likely this afternoon, especially west of the
terminals. Probabilities for impacts are too low this far out to
justify a mention with the 06z TAF cycle for either KSAV or KCHS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Low risk for flight restrictions from
mainly afternoon showers/thunderstorms and early morning
Tonight: Winds will generally be 10 kt or less through sunrise
Wednesday while seas should be 2 to 3 ft.
Wednesday through Sunday: High pressure will gradually set up just
east of the local waters on Wednesday and will remain in place into
the weekend. This will promote persistent southerly flow through
Friday that will be less than 15 kt. Pressure gradient will begin to
tighten over the weekend as the coastal waters become sandwiched
between high pressure to the east and an approaching front to the
west. South/southwest winds will increase as a result, but
conditions are still expected to stay well below small craft
advisory criteria. Seas are expected to remain in the 1 to 3 ft
range through the period.