Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC
FXUS62 KCHS 261626 CCA
Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Charleston SC
1226 PM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017
Atlantic high pressure will weaken early this week. A
weak cold front will stall over the area during the middle of the
week, then shift back north as a warm front Friday. Another cold
front should move through Saturday or Saturday night followed by
drier high pressure Sunday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Atlantic high pressure will maintain its influence on the region
today. Earlier shower activity associated with a dampening
shortwave has dissipated, but some light sprinkles have recently
developed along I-95 from Savannah south to Darien along the sea
breeze. Satellite presentation of this activity is already
starting to degrade so suspect broad subsidence aloft is taking
its toll. While a sprinkle or two can not be completely ruled out
along the sea breeze this afternoon, mentionable pops are not
justified at this time. Adjustments were made to sky cover and
winds, but none were significant for the early afternoon update.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Tonight: The axis of a weak sfc ridge will pivot west over the
GA/SC coast. The sfc pattern will support light SE onshore flow
across the forecast area through the night. At the mid levels,
heights should slowly increase in the wake of the shallow S/W. I
will keep PoPs limited to the single digits. Low temperatures
are forecast to range in the upper 50s to around 60.
Monday through Wednesday: Atlantic high pressure will weaken
through the period, especially by Wednesday when a weak cold
front is expected to push offshore around the Mid-Atlantic but
struggle to move all the way through southeast GA. Expect a
decent chance of showers and thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday
when instability will be greatest and the sea breeze and upper
shortwave energy will be present. However, no appreciable
rainfall and/or severe weather is anticipated at this time.
Temperatures should push into the lower to mid 80s inland each
afternoon, likely warmest across interior southeast GA. Wouldn`t
be surprised if upper 80s occurred Wednesday, mainly interior
GA, due to compressional heating with the front and offshore
winds. Onshore winds will keep beach areas much cooler, mainly
in the 60s.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The stalled front should shift north as a warm front Friday followed
by a cold frontal passage Saturday or Saturday night. Drier high
pressure should then return later in the weekend. Showers and
thunderstorms will be possible, mainly Thursday through Friday
night, with temperatures running above normal through at least
.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR. Might see some shallow ground fog at both terminals just
before sunrise, but no impacts are anticipated.
Extended Aviation Outlook: Mainly VFR. Brief restrictions possible
in any showers/thunderstorms, mainly Mon/Tue/Thu/Fri. Low
probability of restrictions due to early morning low clouds and/or
Today: Increased seas by a foot given latest marine observations
and latest NWPS and WW3 output. Seas will continue 2-4 ft
nearshore and 4-5 ft offshore.
Monday through Friday: No significant concerns with Atlantic high
pressure generally in control until a weakening cold front moves
into the area Wednesday. The front will transition into a warm front
as it moves back north Friday. Seas could reach 6 feet near the Gulf
Stream through Tuesday due to swells from low pressure well
offshore. Advisories will be possible across the outer GA waters
through Tuesday and then for more of the area Thursday night/Friday
as strengthening southerly winds build seas to 6 feet again.