Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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FXUS65 KCYS 291154

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
554 AM MDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Sun May 29 2016

Pretty nice day on tap for Sunday. Current IR imagery showing
southeast Wyoming and Nebraska Panhandle pretty much cloud free.
WPC surface analysis showing a stationary boundary bisecting the
CWFA from Chadron to Rawlins this morning. Mainly a convergence
boundary as dewpoints and temperatures are pretty uniform on both
sides of the boundary.

Latest forecast soundings for the area not really showing any
threat for severe storms today. Only near the boundary out in the
northern Panhandle does the NAM show any high CAPE. This afternoon
towards 00Z...NAM shows 1500-1800 J/KG. Do believe most areas
outside the mountains should remain dry today.

Shortwave begins to move into the area Monday afternoon from the
northwest. Associated cold front with this wave begins to move
into our northern counties around 21Z Monday and through our
southern counties Monday evening. We may be too far west for
severe thunderstorms Monday afternoon/evening. GFS showing much of
the higher instability over in North Platte`s area. SPC has a
Slight Risk area identified just east of our Nebraska Panhandle

Another issue with the front. Looks like a pretty good push behind
the front Monday night into Tuesday. 850MB winds across
Converse/Niobrara and the northern Panhandle counties increase up
to 40-45kts behind the front. Could be looking at advisory level
winds for the northern Panhandle for a brief period Monday night.

Cooler temperatures Tuesday as 700MB temperatures fall to
freezing. Tuesday should be our coldest day as this happens with
low to mid 60s in the Panhandle/mid to upper 50s west for highs.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Sun May 29 2016

The extended forecast period should feature a warm and dry weather
pattern as medium range model guidance continues to support upper-
level ridging through much of next week. Large scale subsidence is
expected to be a limiting factor for potential convection from Wed
onward, but occasional chances for showers and thunderstorms could
exist over the higher terrain with orographic enhancement. Trended
warmer late in the week as the GFS and ECMWF both suggest H7 temps
of +10 to +12 deg C over much of the CWA by Friday, quite possibly
even approaching +14 deg C over parts of the area by Sunday with a
developing large scale omega block. Hydrologic concerns could very
well increase into next weekend with the very warm temperatures.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 549 AM MDT Sun May 29 2016

Mainly VFR conditions will prevail outside of thunderstorms. Brief
MVFR or IFR visibilities will remain possible over the western Neb
Panhandle through 15z with low temp-dewpoint spreads. Thunderstorm
activity today will likely result in brief MVFR ceilings/vsbys and
gusty winds.


Issued at 300 AM MDT Sun May 29 2016

Fire weather concerns to remain low into the early part of next
week with non-critical conditions continuing. There will be
widely scattered mainly afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms into early next week with wetting rains from some of
these. Warmer and drier towards the end of the week.


Issued at 146 AM MDT Sun May 29 2016

The North Platte and Laramie Rivers will continue to run high,
but should remain steady or slowly recede over the next couple of
days with relatively steady reservoir releases and reduced
snowmelt from cool mountain temperatures. Warmer temperatures
toward mid week will begin to increase snow melt again, so rivers
will be on the rise for next weekend.


.CYS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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