Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 252349
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
549 PM CST Sun Feb 25 2018

...Updated Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 331 PM CST Sun Feb 25 2018

A shortwave trough was moving east over the central High Plains
this afternoon. A surface reflection of this wave was also moving
east across western Kansas with northerly winds developing behind
the low. With a fairly dry airmass in place, the upper wave is
only producing some scattered mid and high level clouds.

The shortwave trough moves east of the region tonight. Behind
this, the upper flow becomes more west to southwest tonight
through Monday as a strong trough digs along the West Coast. At
the surface, a trough will begin to develop tonight along the
eastern slopes of the ColoradoNew Mexico Rockies. Light and
variable winds this evening will become southerly at 5 to 15 mph
by Monday morning. Southerly low level wind flow increases
significantly on Monday with windy conditions developing over much
of central and western Kansas. Strong low level warm advection
should push daytime high temperatures into the mid and possibly
upper 60s Monday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 331 PM CST Sun Feb 25 2018

The GFS and ECMWF are showing a lot more consistency through the
extended period through the last few runs. Monday night into Tuesday,
the West Coast trough closes off into an upper low over southern
California. Lowering heights over the northern and central High
Plains will help push a frontal boundary south into northern Kansas
before stalling out. The shortwave trough opens up as it races
east into the central and southern Plains by Wednesday. This trough
continues to exhibit a positively tilted nature as it moves out
into the Plains. This pattern tends to keep the best low level
moisture to the east of western Kansas. Currently have some small
pops going for central Kansas Tuesday night into Wednesday but
areas to the west will remain dry.

After this wave moves east, the region will be under a broad upper
level ridge through mid week. Upper level flow becomes more
southwesterly again late in the week which will result in deepening
pressure in the lee of the Rockies and increasing southerly winds
across the central High Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 535 PM CST Sun Feb 25 2018

Great flying conditions with clear skies and northwest wind less
than 10 knots until tomorrow morning. Surface high pressure moves
out of SW Kansas this evening, shifting wind to the south at less
than 10 knots after 2Z. Strengthening low pressure in Eastern
Colorado will increase the pressure gradient after 14Z causing
strong and gusty southerly wind at 20-25 knots sustained, with
gusts to 35 knots. Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail at all
terminals.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 331 PM CST Sun Feb 25 2018

Strong and gusty southerly winds will develop across central and
western Kansas on Monday. Fairly dry air is in place across the
southern High Plains of Texas where dewpoints are currently in the
single digits. Somewhat more moist air is in place across western
Oklahoma where dewpoints are in the upper 20s and low 30s. This
air will be advecting north into central and western Kansas on
Monday. With high temperatures expected to reach into the mid 60s,
afternoon relative humidity levels should drop down to 15 percent
or less in areas along and west of a Hays-Dodge City-Meade line.
Have issued a Red Flag Warning for that area from around midday
to early evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  22  64  36  65 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  20  63  31  64 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  24  64  33  66 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  21  66  33  65 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  21  63  34  61 /   0   0   0   0
P28  24  63  36  61 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM CST /10 AM MST/ to 7 PM CST /6 PM
MST/ Monday for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>064-074>078-084>087.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gerard
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Reynolds
FIRE WEATHER...Gerard



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