Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 251742 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1242 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1146 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

ISOLD TO WIDELY SCT SHOWERS ARE POPPING UP AND THEN DISSIPATING.
WITH THIS DIFFICULTY...HAVE A LOW POPS TO TRY AND ACCOUNT FOR THIS
ACTIVITY. STILL EXPECTING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. REST OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 903 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

THE EARLY MORNING SHOWERS HAVE EXITED THE AREA. JUST A FEW
SPRINKLES REMAIN. HOWEVER...WITH THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND COLD
FRONT IN EASTERN ND...WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF SAID
FRONT...SHOWERS OR ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS MAY POP AT ANY TIME. HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS FOR THESE LATEST TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 736 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

UPDATED TO REFINE POPS AND REMOVE PRE-FIRST PERIOD BASED ON
CURRENT PRECIP AREA. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE
SOUTH OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 15Z.  REST OF FCST UNCHANGED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 430 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

UPDATED TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THOSE AREAS THIS
MORNING. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL END BY MID-MORNING. REST OF FCST UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

SHORT TERM CONCERN IS PRECIPITATION CHANCE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES RAIN SHOWERS NORTH OF THE IRON
RANGE AND IN THE ARROWHEAD. THESE SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.  THEY WILL CONTINUE MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE IS AN
AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE ND/SD/WRN MN BORDER MOVING ESE.
THE AREA HAS DECREASED IN INTENSITY OVER THE PAST HOUR. THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION MAY CLIP CASS AND CROW WING
COUNTIES THIS MORNING. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH MN
TODAY AND NW WI TONIGHT. IT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASED INSTABILITY WITH
THE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MUCAPES ARE
1500-2000...SHEAR IS 20-40...AND SOME SUN TODAY. SPC HAS THE
FORECAST AREA IN A 5% PROBABILITY FOR WIND/HAIL WITH THE MARGINAL
INSTABILITY.

AN AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST LATE THIS EVENING. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION
FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER..BY THE AFTERNOON...AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG WITH A UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
WESTERN MINNESOTA AND WILL EFFECT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA SATURDAY EVENING
WILL DROP INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA BY 12Z SUN...THEN CONTINUE INTO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY SUNDAY EVENING. A SURFACE LOW/TROUGH AXIS
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER WAVE. SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...THEN DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY. WE HAVE THE HIGHEST
POPS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE NORTHLAND LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN LEAD TO MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NORTHLAND WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. WE ALSO HAVE A SMALL
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS THURSDAY FOR MOST AREAS.

THE PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID SIXTIES TO LOWER SEVENTIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN MODERATE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD...REACHING THE UPPER SEVENTIES TO LOWER EIGHTIES BY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
TRANSITION TO ISOLATED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON
WITH MVFR/VFR CIGS. THIS CONVECTION WILL BE FORCED ALONG A WEAK
SFC COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THIS EVENING AND ALLOW
WINDS TO SHIFT FROM THE S/SW TO THE W/NW BY EARLY SAT MORNING.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PATCHY FOG THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT WITH VSBYS POSSIBLY DROPPING TO AROUND 1-3SM. A MUCH DRIER
AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN EARLY SAT MORNING AND ALLOW CONDITIONS TO
BECOME VFR BY LAT SAT MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  75  59  82  59 /  50  30  50  50
INL  76  57  81  56 /  40  50  50  60
BRD  80  58  84  60 /  40  10  30  40
HYR  76  62  85  58 /  50  30  30  50
ASX  77  61  81  57 /  30  40  40  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...STEWART
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...BJT






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