Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 251511
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
911 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 911 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

QUICK UPDATE TO EXPAND SNOW SHOWERS AND ADD A MENTION OF FLURRIES
THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN SAINT LOUIS COUNTY AND
EASTERN KOOCHING/ITASCA COUNTIES AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH IS CAUSE SOME SNOW TO DEVELOP. NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A
DUSTING SO WENT WITH FLURRIES WORDING. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AT
THE HEAD OF THE LAKE CONTINUE THIS MORNING AS EXPECTED...FROM
SILVER BAY SOUTH TO THE TWIN PORTS ALONG THE NORTH SHORE AND FROM
THE TWIN PORTS EAST TO ASHLAND ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE. A FEW TENTHS
OF AN INCH POSSIBLE IN SOME SPOTS BUT OTHERWISE ONLY A COATING OF
SNOWFALL EXPECTED FROM THESE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 609 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

AT 4 AM...IT WAS FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. SOME FLURRIES
WERE FALLING ADJACENT TO LAKE SUPERIOR...THANKS TO EAST WINDS
ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 17 BELOW ZERO AT THE
SEAGULL RAWS STATION NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...TO THE MIDDLE
20S ABOVE ZERO IN THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING PARTIAL SUNSHINE TO THE NORTHLAND
TODAY. THE MOST PERSISTENT CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE ADJACENT TO LAKE
SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTH SHORE WHERE
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE. THE HIGH RESOLUTION DULUTH
WRF RUN INDICATES THERE MAY BE A FEW BANDS OF LOCALLY HEAVIER SNOW
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY...TRANSLATING FROM THE DULUTH AREA THIS
MORNING...TO LAKE COUNTY DURING THE DAY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE SOME VERY LOCALIZED SNOW ACCUMULATION ALONG A PORTION OF
HIGHWAY 61...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST OF DULUTH.

THE FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR FOR
TONIGHT...AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW DROP SOUTHEASTWARD
IN NORTHWEST FLOW. THE TRACK OF THE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WOULD PUT
THE ARROWHEAD ON TRACK FOR THE GREATER SNOW AMOUNTS. LIGHT SNOW
SHOULD PUSH INTO NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA DURING THE
EVENING...EXPANDING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHLAND
OVERNIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN THE LIKELY POPS WE HAVE GOING...ALONG
WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS RANGING FROM LESS THAN AN INCH IN THE SW
PORTION OF THE CWA...TO 2 TO 4 INCHES IN THE ARROWHEAD. COULD EVEN
SEE SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN ADJACENT
TO LAKE SUPERIOR ON THE NORTH SHORE...DUE TO SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT.

THE SURFACE LOW WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE CWA ON MONDAY...BRINGING A
GRADUAL DEMISE TO THE SNOW ACROSS THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL TODAY...WITH TEENS IN
THE NORTH AND 20S IN THE SOUTH. ON MONDAY...MUCH OF THE WESTERN
CWA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE SURFACE LOW THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S IN THE EAST...AND MID TO UPPER 30S IN
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

OUR CLIPPER FROM SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO
THE SOUTHEAST...BUT LEAVE THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH CLOUDS AND DIMINISHING SNOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT.  A WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

OUR NEXT MAJOR WEATHER MAKER MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON THIS
SYSTEM AND THE RUN TO RUN DIFFERENCES SHOW THAT IT IS SHIFTING SOUTH
WITH TIME. HOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH CONSISTENCY TO BE FAIRLY
CERTAIN OF A SNOW PRODUCING SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...WITH
ENOUGH WARM AIR STILL IN THE AREA UPON ONSET TO PRODUCE A PERIOD OF
MIXED PRECIP TYPES...MAINLY SOUTH.  THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS TO THE AREA ONCE THE COLDER AIR MOVES
INTO THE AREA.  COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.  BY
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY EXPECT HIGHS TO ONLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
AND  TEENS.  OTHERWISE...HAVE ONLY SOME SMALL POPS IN FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS A COUPLE WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 609 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

MVFR CEILINGS AFFECTING MOST TERMINALS THIS MORNING. CEILING
HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TODAY...ESPECIALLY AT KDLH AS WINDS
TURN FROM EAST OFF THE LAKE TO SOUTHEAST AFTER 21Z WHEN CEILINGS
SHOULD RETURN TO VFR. THEN...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA AFTER 03Z WITH CEILINGS LOWERING ONCE AGAIN TO
MVFR...THEN VISIBILITIES LOWERING TO MVFR AS SNOW BEGINS AT EACH
TERMINAL...GENERALLY AFTER 05Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  20  15  34  21 /  40  70  60  20
INL  18  14  33  18 /  10  70  60  20
BRD  24  20  38  25 /  10  40  20   0
HYR  22  13  31  21 /  10  60  60  30
ASX  20  12  33  23 /  10  60  60  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJM
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...LE





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