Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 231144
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
644 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OVER INDIANA WILL STAY NEARLY STATIONARY OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WEAKENING UPPER VORT MAX
OVER KANSAS IS ALLOWING FOR DISSIPATING HIGH CLOUDS TO PUSH INTO IOWA.
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SUPPORTS LITTLE CHANGE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH UPPER
LOW TO DISSIPATE AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO DOMINATE WITH A SLOW
WARMING TREND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...WELL ABOVE AVERAGE OR
EXCELLENT WITH NO SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES AND QUIET CONDITIONS.

TODAY...MOSTLY SUNNY WITH SOME DECAYING HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST WITH
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS. HIGHS IN GENERAL SHOULD BE
A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY...ROUGHLY 70 TO 74 DEGREES.

TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH A BIT MORE HIGH CLOUDS FAR WEST SECTIONS
WITH VIRGA POSSIBLE ALOFT FROM PLAINS UPPER LOW WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST
WINDS. MINS WITH SLOW MODIFICATION SHOULD BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER
THAN TONIGHT...MOSTLY UPPER 40S EAST TO LOWER 50S WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS SIMILAR IN SWINGING AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE MIDWEST. HOWEVER...THIS
TROUGH WILL SHEAR OUT/WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE PERSISTENT RIDGE
IN THE EAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BE ENCOUNTERING DRIER AIR AS IT
PUSHES TOWARDS THE DVN CWA. THE ONLY IMPACT I SEE WILL BE MORE
CLOUDINESS ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MS RIVER ALONG WITH POSSIBLE
SPRINKLES OR ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
DRY FORECAST LEAVING THE MENTION OF WHAT APPEARS TO BE A TRACE EVENT
OUT OF THE GRIDS. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S ON WEDNESDAY AND MID TO UPPER 70S ON THURSDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
BRING A DRY AND COMFORTABLY MILD PERIOD TO THE REGION. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE TAF CYCLE WITH GRADUAL INCREASE IN CIRRUS
CLOUDS FROM UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LIFTING SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS.
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5-10 KTS DURING DAY ON BACKSIDE OF
DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. AFTER 24/00Z ...SCT-BKN MID/HI CLOUDS
TO OVERSPREAD TERMINALS WITH POSSIBLE VIRGA AT CID TERMINAL FROM BASES
AOA 10K AGL AFTER 24/08Z.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NICHOLS
SHORT TERM...NICHOLS
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...NICHOLS





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