Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 030447
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1147 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

WEAK SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING FAIR SKIES WITH
SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS AND LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS AND NEAR
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AT 2 PM. SATELLITE...RADAR AND SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWS MOISTURE/FORCING TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST WILL TAKE AT LEAST
ANOTHER 24 HOURS TO ARRIVE...IF EVEN THEN. UPSTREAM ANALYSIS SHOWS
NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...GOOD TO VERY GOOD (ABOVE
TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE). LOCAL TOOLS COMBINED WITH VERIFICATION AND PERSISTENCE
ALL SUGGEST LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER NEXT 24+ HOURS. PERSISTENCE USEFUL
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH MINOR TWEAKS FOR WARMING ON WEDNESDAY AND LITTLE
OR NO CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY DUE TO MINOR FORCING AND LIMITED
MOISTURE.

TONIGHT...COMBINE PERSISTENCE WITH LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR MINS AGAIN IN THE UPPER 50S N-NE SECTIONS AND LOWER 60S SW SECTIONS.
SOME PATCHY LIGHT GROUND FOG SHOULD DEVELOP SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE
WITH ISOLATED VISIBILITIES BELOW 1-2 MILES IN SHALLOW FOG. LOWS SHOULD
BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE.

WEDNESDAY...REDUCED POPS AND LATER SHIFT MAY ABLE TO REMOVE ENTIRELY
DUE TO LIMITED FORCING NEAR SURFACE AND ALOFT. ANY PRECIPITATION (IF
ANY) APPEARS WILL BE MORE ELEVATED SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES. SOUTH WINDS
SHOULD INCREASE TO 7-12 MPH IN PM HOURS ALLOWING FOR ENOUGH MIXING FOR
HIGHS A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY IN THE 82 TO 87 DEGREE
RANGE...STILL JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

FORECAST FOCUS ON HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY THEN TURNING
FALL-LIKE THIS WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE ORGANIZING IN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AS A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST OUT OF
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL PUSH A WARM
AND MOIST BUT CAPPED ATMOSPHERE NORTHEAST INTO THE DVN CWA. THE KEY
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE WHERE THE WARM FRONT WILL BE LOCATED FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS. SOME MODELS KEEP THE CWA DRY WHILE
OTHER MODELS SUGGEST OUR NORTHERN CWA MAY BE UNDER THE GUN FOR
CONVECTION. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
THE LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES.

THURSDAY...INTENSIFYING CYCLONE WILL TRACK FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TO NORTH OF MN WITH A GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND PUSHING HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS INTO OUR AREA. THE MODELS WANT TO INCREASE DEWPOINTS INTO
THE 70S BUT DECENT MIXING MAY DROP AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S
AS THE AIRMASS WILL BE DRY AND CAPPED. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD
SOAR INTO THE LOWER 90S AT MANY LOCATIONS WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
WELL INTO THE 90S TO AROUND 100.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...ECMWF SENDS A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
CWA WHICH SHOULD BE PRECEDED BY A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODELS
SUGGEST THE BETTER COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE IN OUR NW CWA DURING
THE EVENING WITH CONVECTION THEN DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT...AS THE
BETTER FORCING LIFTS WELL TO OUR NORTH WITH THE CYCLONE TRACKING TO
NEAR JAMES BAY. CAN`T RULE OUT ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS THURSDAY NIGHT
BUT THE MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE
DVN CWA TIED TO THE STRONGER FORCING. SCATTERED STORMS MAY LINGER IN
OUR SE CWA ON FRIDAY.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE AREA. PLEASANT FALL-LIKE AIRMASS WITH
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES DROPPING
INTO THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

TUESDAY...RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
THAT WILL BE DIVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS IT DRIFTS EAST INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS MAY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF GROUND FOG FROM
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE...WHICH IS MENTIONED AT ALL SITES
WITH TEMPO GROUPS FOR VISIBILITIES OF 3 TO 4 MILES. THERE IS A LOW
PROBABILITY FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...WHICH IS NOT INCLUDED IN
THE FORECASTS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NICHOLS
SHORT TERM...NICHOLS
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...SHEETS





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