Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
FXUS63 KEAX 012249
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
549 PM CDT Sat Oct 1 2016
Issued at 335 PM CDT SAT OCT 1 2016
The main concern for this afternoon is the slight chance for rain in
the northeastern part of the CWA. Any rain that develops will be light
and scattered. Tonight, expect some patchy fog in the southwest
portion of the CWA in low lying areas where there has not been as
much cloud cover. Finally, low temperatures tonight will be slightly
above normal in the mid-50s.
The low pressure system over the Ohio River Valley has finally begun
to move to the northeast; however, the cloud cover the system
brought into the area today will stick around for much of Sunday. In
addition, a weak trough associated with the departing low will move
south through the far eastern section of the CWA, creating a slight
chance for light rain showers during the afternoon hours Sunday.
Otherwise, the weather will be quiet until Tuesday. Temperatures will
increase a few degrees Sunday despite the cloud cover due to the
surface high pressure moving into the area and WAA. The strength of
the WAA will increase Monday and Tuesday allowing temperatures to
reach the upper 70s and lower 80s. Slightly enhanced fire danger may
be an issue Monday afternoon due to the stronger winds from the SSE
and better boundary layer mixing. This is also the case for Tuesday
afternoon, but mostly for the southeastern half of the CWA, due to
the tighter pressure gradient moving to the east.
Showers and thunderstorms are possible during the day Tuesday, mostly
for the northwestern portion of the CWA. As the cold front moves further
southeast, the chance for showers and thunderstorms increases for the
rest of the CWA. The chance for precipitation will continue for the
entire area through Thursday morning. At this time, there is some
potential for severe weather, but that will depend on the location
and timing of the surface low.
Quiet weather and normal temperatures are expected for the remainder
of the forecast period.
.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT SAT OCT 1 2016
Extensive area of stratocu with ceilings above 3 kft will persist
over northern...central and much of west central MO plus adjacent
eastern KS into Sunday morning. Lone exception being near the western
edge of this cloud deck where clouds should scatter out later this
evening. Those areas which do scatter out or even become clear can
expect patchy MVFR fog to form during the pre-dawn hours of Sunday
morning but will also dissipate shortly after sunrise.
.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 548 PM CDT SAT OCT 1 2016
Low level stratus will continue to erode through the evening hours
with persistent light and variable winds. Any areas under which
skies do clear, are prone to patchy fog formation Sunday morning. May
accommodate for this in the next issuance, depending on the extent
of clearing over the terminals. VFR stratus will rebuild over the
area tomorrow before gradually lifting toward the end of the period.