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000
FXUS63 KEAX 231040
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
540 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms through this morning,
  primarily across northeastern Kansas and northern Missouri. No
  severe storms are expected.

- Multiple rounds of thunderstorms Thursday through Sunday.
  Slight risk of severe storms Friday.

- Heavy rainfall and the potential for flooding with Saturday
  Night into Sunday System.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 228 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to move into portions
of far northeastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri this morning.
This modest activity remains focused along a surface boundary slowly
sinking south-southeast into the region. Associated with the mid-
level short wave trough pivoting across the Boundary Waters, the
outstretched surface trough has been a focus for convection Monday
evening, and finally beginning to move into the region this morning.
Through Sunrise, expect scattered showers and storms to continue,
working with sufficient mid-level moisture and some pockets of weak
elevated instability. The greatest chances will remain along and
north of US 36 but lingering activity will make the Ozark Plateau by
midday. Rainfall amounts will be minor, a few hundredths to one or
two tenths. Temperatures will remain near normal, with afternoon
highs around 70 F.

High pressure will settle across the area into Wednesday as shallow,
but broad, ridging develops from the southwest CONUS to the Lower
Mississippi Valley. Dry conditions will exist while temps remain
near normal. Into Thursday, precip chances will increase through the
day as broadscale ascent develops ahead of a mid-level western
shortwave lifting across the Four Corners. With a surface low
developing over the western High Plains of CO/KS, ample moisture
return will combine with decent isentropic ascent for showers and
thunderstorms through the afternoon and evening across the region.
To the west, across central Kansas, a ribbon of instability will
pool through the afternoon ahead of the eastward push of the
dryline. With a negative tilt to the H500 trough as it pivots to the
northeast out of CO into WY/NE, decent dynamics will exist for
organized convection from far south central Nebraska, through
central Kansas, into Oklahoma through the afternoon hours. Activity
in central Kansas through the evening will likely consolidate into a
line or cluster through midnight and move into the area Friday
morning.

Through early Friday morning, strong convection will likely be
ongoing with strong large scale ascent persisting with the continued
east-northeast lift of the mid-level short wave trough into central
Nebraska. It`s a bit early to get into the details, but with
southwesterly flow, we might develop a modest EML through the midday
hours, but an axis of instability will continue to develop with DESI
LREF mean Surface CAPE of 1500 to 2000 J/Kg along the MO/KS border
through the afternoon. Given the strong negative tilt of the upper
trough, the parameters are there for severe convection across the
area through the afternoon. With all that being said, the early
morning/overnight convection will more than likely influence
recovery and with southwest flow through the lower levels, we might
have a lingering capping inversion to deal with. At this time, I`ve
agreed with SPC highlighting a 15% (Slight) Risk over the past few
days and continuing today for Friday afternoon. Any storms would
pose a risk of large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes.

Brief negative ridging aloft will follow the exit of the Friday
short wave to the north-northeast. Any reprieve will be short lived
as a digging H500 trough emerges from the Four Corners on Saturday.
Into the evening, increasing broadscale ascent across the central
Plains will result in increasing thunderstorm chances by the
afternoon within the warm sector ahead of the surface low wrapping
up over southwestern Kansas. Overnight, with the aid of a strong
LLJ, convection will spread across eastern Kansas into Missouri.
With PWATs 1.50 to 2.00" forecast across the area, there`s
increasing concern for flooding and flash flooding as storms will
likely train along the surface warm front across northeastern Kansas
into northwestern Missouri. The good news, because we`ve been in a
moderate drought, for most locations, we can likely manage a good
bit of water, but we`re going to have to keep a close watch on
streams and rivers through the weekend for quick rises, especially if
we get several rounds of rain over the same locations overnight into
Sunday morning. Showers and storms will likely linger through Sunday
night before finally clearing to the east.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 525 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Showers and thunderstorms expected to be in the vicinity of the
TAF sites for the next few hours with storms moving out by mid
day. Winds will shift back to the north as the storms come to
an end and will become gusty around 25 knots. Otherwise expect
decreasing winds and VFR conditions Tuesday evening.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kurtz
AVIATION...HB