Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA

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000
FXUS66 KEKA 272221
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
321 PM PDT SAT AUG 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Warm and dry conditions will continue across the
interior through the weekend. Coastal areas can expect overnight
and morning cloudiness the next few days with partial clearing in
the afternoons. A cooling trend is expected next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Deep and stubborn marine layer continues to affect
weather coastside with cooler than normal temperatures...clouds
and areas of morning drizzle. The marine clouds did penetrate a
little further inland this morning but finally burned back to the
near coast by late morning. Farther inland...another beautiful
sunny day on tap with near normal temperatures. Little change
expected in the weather pattern for tomorrow or the next day as
generally dry weather is expected through early to middle part of
next week, although a bit of nighttime and morning drizzle will
continue to plague the coast. Models continue to migrate a bit on
rainfall chances over the N portion of the area from mid to late
week next week as an upper trough digs over the E Pacific. The
models are in good agreement with the height fields but differ a
bit regarding the precip field. The GFS if more bullish with PoPs
while the ECMWF shifts most of the precip N of the area. Modeled
RH fields at mid and upper levels remain dry indicating little in
the way of cloud cover. Nonetheless...due to the uncertainty have
maintained the roughly 20% PoPs indicated N of Cape Mendocino for
late next week. Early indications are that instability will
preclude thunderstorm development. Another effect of the
developing trough will be a downward trend in temperatures next
week with readings falling to near to slightly below normal by
Monday or Tuesday. /SEC/JT


&&

.AVIATION...The start of the weekend features widespread coverage of
marine stratus. The entire West Coast was covered in marine stratus
this morning. Locally, the marine stratus made it to Klamath River,
Mad River, Eel River drainage basins. The wind profiler at Arcata
Airport estimated the depth of the marine layer to be around 2000 to
3000 feet. Overnight last night, the conditions weren`t as bad as
the night before. Instead of being in LIFR, both Arcata and Crescent
City airports were reporting IFR conditions last night. Ukiah also
saw marine stratus making into their area from the south last night,
dropping the condition into IFR for them. This afternoon, clouds
have burnt off in Ukiah. For Crescent City and Arcata, clouds are
still lingering with a break in the sky cover or two. Do expect LIFT
conditions to return to the area once again tonight. For Ukiah it
will probably drop back to IFR tonight. It should be a foggy night
once again tonight, then giving way to some sun in the afternoon
tomorrow. /RCL


&&

.MARINE...No marine hazards in effect through early next week. The
low seas and light winds conditions are expected in the near future.
The weak pressure gradient will  persist through early next week.
Early this afternoon, the buoys off the NW California coast has been
reporting seas of about 4 to 5 feet. Winds are light and variable.

By middle of next week, models are hinting on the return of
northerly flow as high pressure rebuilds over the East Pacific.
Numerical models have been wavering back and forth on the timing
and intensity of these northerlies.

Small changes were made to refresh the forecast package. Forecast
confidence is slightly below average. Models of choice is GFS and
ECMWF. /RCL


&&

.EKA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CA...None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...None.
&&

$$

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