Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 311150 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
750 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...
NOTHING MUCH TO ADD TO NEAR TERM PORTION OF FCST. A LITTLE MORE
SHRA OVER SE PART OF CWA THAN EXPECTED. ALREADY ADJUSTED FCST
EARLIER BUT WILL DO ONE MORE TWEAK IN NEXT FEW MINUTES. 06Z MODEL
GUIDANCE NOT SHOWING ANY SURPRISES COMPARED TO PREV RUNS.

SNELSON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PRIMARY CONCERNS IN SHORT TERM PERIOD IS COVERAGE OF SHRA LATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND CHC OF CONVECTION. AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...
MED RANGE AND CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS INDICATING WARM ADVECTION
EVENT WITH FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHRA OVER NORTH GA AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.
NOT SEEING MUCH EVIDENCE OF INSTABILITY AND CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT
OR FRIDAY WITH EVAPORATIVE COOLING EXPECTED IN LOW LEVELS AS PRECIP
INITIALLY FALLS INTO DRY LAYER. COULD SEE TEMPS STRUGGLE TO GET OUT
OF THE 70S ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN NORTH GA. SOUTH OF I-20...COVERAGE
OF SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT LOW FRIDAY. HAVE KEPT POPS IN
SLT CHC/CHC CATEGORIES.

PATTERN FAVORABLE FOR PROLONGED PRECIP EVENT WITH UPPER TROUGH
NEARLY STATIONARY TO OUR WEST. AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
INCREASE A LITTLE FRI/FRI NIGHT...MORE OPPORTUNITY FOR TSRA THAN
THURS...STILL WIDESPREAD CLOUDS SO INSTABILITY LIKELY NOT ENOUGH FOR
VIGOROUS OR SEVERE CONVECTION. HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED MINOR
FLOODING WILL BECOME AN INCREASING THREAT HOWEVER.

USED BLENDED BIAS-CORRECTED GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS...THOUGH TEMPS MAY BE
A TOUCH COOLER THAN THIS IF PRECIP BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD THAN
EXPECTED.

SNELSON

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WET WEATHER STARTING IN THE SHORT TERM WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EXTENDED. LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN CONUS SLOWLY BEGINS TO FILL
BUT AXIS REMAINS JUST TO OUR WEST BEFORE LIFTING OUT TUESDAY. THIS
PUTS GA IN MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WAVES
TRAVERSING THE AREA OFF AND ON THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION KICKS IN AND PROVIDES SUFFICIENT LIFT AND
MOISTURE FOR SHRA/TSRA EVEN DURING NIGHTTIME PERIODS. WILL STILL
KEEP A DIURNAL TREND THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST BUT KEEPING IN
GOOD CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT TIME HOURS. NOT SEEING ANY SIGN
OF PARTICULARLY INTENSE OR PROLONGED STEADY RAINFALL AS THESE WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVE QUICKLY THROUGH THE AREA. BASIN AVERAGED
RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 1/4 - 1/2 INCH WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS. THE 4-5 DAY QPF FORECAST SHOWS 1-3 INCHES STATE WIDE WITH
THE BEST RAINFALL STAYING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA. WITH RAIN
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEK TEMPS WILL STAY
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 09Z FRI AT WHICH POINT IFR
CIGS ARE LIKELY AT ALL NORTH AND CENTRAL GA AIRPORTS. STILL
BELIEVE SHOWERS THRU 03Z TODAY WILL BE ISOLD AND BELOW THRESHOLD TO
INCLUDE IN FCST BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. BETTER CHC FOR
SHRA WILL ALSO BE AFTER 06Z. HAVE ADDED PROB30 -RA TO NORTH GA
AIRPORTS AFTER 09Z. NO INDICATION THAT TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE THRU
FCST.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON SHRA LIKELIHOOD AFTER 09Z FRI.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

SNELSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          84  68  81  68 /  40  60  70  50
ATLANTA         84  68  81  69 /  20  50  60  40
BLAIRSVILLE     76  62  74  62 /  40  70  70  50
CARTERSVILLE    83  67  81  67 /  30  60  60  40
COLUMBUS        87  70  87  72 /  20  20  50  30
GAINESVILLE     79  67  77  67 /  40  70  70  50
MACON           86  70  85  70 /  30  30  60  40
ROME            83  67  81  68 /  30  60  60  40
PEACHTREE CITY  85  68  83  68 /  20  40  60  40
VIDALIA         90  72  90  74 /  30  30  50  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SNELSON
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...SNELSON




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