Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 200336
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1136 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014


.UPDATE...
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. EXPECT CLOUDS TO DEVELOP BY EARLY
MORNING...WITH GLOOMY MORNING CONDITIONS AS A RESULT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. OVERALL FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON
TRACK...AND HAVE MADE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GRIDS.

31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 807 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TODAY AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OR A PSEUDO WEDGE FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE
CWA. THIS BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND WAS LEADING TO SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THAT AREA. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BY LATE THIS
EVENING.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEDGE
AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA OVER THE
ATLANTIC. THIS WEDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE AREA AND LEAD
TO A RATHER NICE WEEKEND. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE WEDGE AND THE
DEVELOPING LOW SHOULD LEAD TO STRONGER SURFACE WINDS TOMORROW WITH
SOME GUSTS JUST SHY OF 20 KTS. CHANCES OF PRECIP ARE LOW...BUT
WITH THE LOW TO OUR SOUTHEAST HAD TO ADD LOW END POPS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST ZONES. OTHERWISE...A FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA ON SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. A CHANCE OF RAIN RETURNS FOR NORTH GEORGIA. AS FAR AS
A TEMPERATURES GO...WENT WITH BCCONSALL AND A BLEND OF THE SHORT
TERM MODELS.

ARG

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER TROUGHING DOMINATES AS WE TRANSITION INTO THE EXTENDED WITH
A CLOSED SURFACE LOW JUST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. NHC NOT
EXPECTING THIS TO DEVELOP INTO ANYTHING AND WITH SUBSIDENCE OVER
GEORGIA...DO NOT HAVE MUCH IN THE WAY OF POPS. HOWEVER...A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH DOWN WITH THE NEXT DIGGING SHORTWAVE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS JUST A TAD AS THE FRONT
ENTERS THE STATE BUT ONCE IT PUSHES IN...MOISTURE DRIES UP AND
THUS SO DO POPS. HOWEVER...COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND
THE FRONT STARTING MONDAY BUT ESPECIALLY INTO MIDWEEK.

SURFACE HIGH BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CROSS
THE APPALACHIANS AND MERGE WITH A CANADIAN HIGH...WORKING TOGETHER
TO FORM AN AREA OF DAMMING DOWN THE EAST COAST. RIGHT NOW LOOKS
LIKE DRY ONSET CLASSICAL CAD WHICH WOULD JUST CONTINUE THE BELOW-
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BUT SOME HINTS OF MOISTURE OVERRUNNING THE
SOUTHEAST WHICH MIGHT LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT RESULT. FOR NOW
HAVE ONLY BUMPED UP POPS EVER SO SLIGHTLY...GENERALLY KEEPING THEM
SLIGHT CHANCE...BUT WILL MONITOR WITH FUTURE FORECAST CYCLES. SEE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

TDP

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014/
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NORTH GEORGIA LATE SUNDAY
AND ACROSS CENTRAL GA ON MONDAY. NOT MUCH PRECIP EXPECTED WITH THE
FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES TO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS ON TUESDAY WITH A RATHER MOIST
EASTERLY FLOW AFFECTING THE FAR SE COUNTIES. MOISTURE ALONG THE SE
COAST BEGINS TO MOVE N ON WEDNESDAY AND COULD AFFECT THE EASTERN
FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY AS WEAK UPPER LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER
THE CWA. THE EUROPEAN AND GFS ARE DIFFERENT HANDLING THE MOISTURE
WITH THE GFS MUCH MORE MOIST CLOSER TO THE EASTERN COUNTIES. FOR NOW
HAVE HELD OFF ON POPS UNTIL FRIDAY.

FORECAST TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO OR ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THEN CLOSE TO OR BELOW NORMAL FROM MONDAY ON.

BDL

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
DEGRADING CIGS EXPECTED BY 09Z...WITH IFR-MVFR CIGS. WEDGE IN
PLACE WILL KEEP CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY...AND MAY
BE MORE SCT-BKN THAN THE SCT CURRENTLY ADVERTISED. EAST WINDS
4-8KT OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TO 8-12KT WITH LOW END GUSTS BY BY
MID MORNING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON CIGS 09-19Z. HIGH ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          64  81  61  87 /  20   5   0  10
ATLANTA         66  81  64  85 /  20   5   0  10
BLAIRSVILLE     60  78  56  80 /  20   5   0  20
CARTERSVILLE    64  82  61  85 /  20   0   0  20
COLUMBUS        68  82  65  88 /  20  10   5   5
GAINESVILLE     65  78  63  83 /  20   5   0  10
MACON           65  82  61  87 /  20  10   5  10
ROME            64  84  61  86 /  20   5   0  20
PEACHTREE CITY  63  81  60  86 /  20  10   0  10
VIDALIA         68  83  65  88 /  30  30  20  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...31




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