Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 031140
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
740 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ACTIVE PERIOD DRAWING TO A CLOSE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS PROMINENT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW SHIFT EASTWARD. LIGHT
RADAR RETURNS PRESENT THIS MORNING ACROSS GEORGIA AS SURFACE FRONT
HANGS BACK ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST GEORGIA. MAY HAVE TAPERED OFF POPS
TO QUICKLY OVER THE NORTH FOR THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO
UPDATE AS NEEDED FOR DEVELOPING -SHRA OVER AL. AMPLE MOISTURE IS
CONFINED SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND WITH SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT
TODAY THE BEST MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL TRANSITION WITH
IT. SPC DOES HAVE THE AREA OUTLOOKED FOR A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS TODAY...LARGELY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM COLUMBUS TO JACKSON TO
HARTWELL WHERE DIURNAL HEATING WILL COMBINE WITH A WEAK IMPULSE
RIDING ALONG THE FRONT TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING/MODELED CAPES 1000-1500 J/KG /. HAVE LIMITED BEST POPS TO
THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
POPS BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AND KEPT THUNDER MENTION LIMITED TO
HIGHEST POP AREAS. PRIMARY HAZARDS CONTINUE TO BE DAMAGING WINDS AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

AS FRONT CONTINUES TO TRANSITION SOUTHWARD...POPS WILL DIMINISH FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH. THE SURFACE LOW PERSISTS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
AND FRONT PUSHES INTO NORTHERN FL BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND
DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS POSITIONS GEORGIA IN DRY NORTHWEST FLOW...KEEPING
TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE
70S...WITH THE COOLING TREND CONTINUING INTO LATE WEEK. BEGIN TO SEE
SOME INFLUENCE OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS FAR NORTH GEORGIA WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS
CONTINUE IN THE GRIDS.

31

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DROP FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD CROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL GA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A
SWATH OF MOISTURE INCREASE AND SOME LOW CAPE WITH THIS FRONT.
COMBINED WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...THIS COULD PRODUCE SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD
BE SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE PERSISTING ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES INTO THE CAROLINAS...SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR THE FAR NORTHEAST. WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY UNTIL THE
END OF THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
POPS RETURN LATE MONDAY FOR NORTHWEST GA WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW. SOME BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN STORE FOR MID WEEK WITH A
MODERATING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND.

41

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE ATL AREA THIS MORNING WILL PUSH EAST/SOUTH AS
FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA TODAY. IFR WILL IMPROVE
TO VFR BY 18Z AT NORTHERN SITES. EXPECT -TSRA AT CSG AND MCN
GENERALLY 18-20Z. GENERALLY W-NW WINDS AT 8-12KT THROUGH THE
DAY...DECREASING TO 6-10KT OVERNIGHT. VRB GUSTS IN/NEAR
CONVECTION. VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AT ALL SITES AS CONVECTION
MOVES OUT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          80  54  74  49 /  50  20  20  10
ATLANTA         76  55  71  50 /  30  20  20  20
BLAIRSVILLE     71  48  67  44 /  60  10  40  40
CARTERSVILLE    75  51  71  46 /  30  10  20  40
COLUMBUS        80  58  75  53 /  50  20   5  10
GAINESVILLE     76  53  70  48 /  60  20  20  30
MACON           82  56  77  50 /  60  40  10  10
ROME            75  50  71  47 /  30  10  30  40
PEACHTREE CITY  78  52  72  47 /  40  20  20  20
VIDALIA         84  62  79  54 /  70  60  10   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...31


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