Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
FXUS62 KFFC 311535 AAB
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1135 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016
Already seeing convective initiation in the western North Carolina
mountains. Current POP and weather grids cover this trend well and I
do not anticipate any updates to the forecast products at this time.
Still appears that moisture and lift are somewhat limited today with
generally isolated to scattered afternoon and evening convection
favoring the north and east.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 732 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016/
PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 403 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016/
SHORT TERM /Today through Wednesday/...
Stagnant airmass in place for today with little to no flow and
similar regime for Wednesday although a bit more enhanced moisture
field. Kept mainly slight to low end chance pops for diurnally
driven convective potential and again attainable conditional
instability given good daytime heating and decently steep mid
level lapse rates /esp if you weigh in on the Nam/. Only other
forcing mechanism could be a weak perturbation late today from the
NW. Kept a bit higher chance pops for Wednesday given the better
moisture in place and coverage of any afternoon development could
get more widespread/outflow driven.
Above normal temps continue thru the period and even bumped slightly
warmer than guidance today given how warm we verified
yesterday...expect many areas back in the low 90s.
LONG TERM /Wednesday Night through Monday/...
General trend of the long term remains consistent among the
models. North and Central GA continue under a weak ridge until the
end of the week with mainly diurnal showers and thunderstorms. The
trough deepening over the northeast states during the Friday and
Saturday time frame should push a front into or close to north GA
for the start of the weekend. The next closed low should push into
the Great Lakes region Sunday into Monday and deepening the trough
farther into the southern states. This should push another front
into GA Sunday and GFS and ECMWF are showing some drying for
Monday as the front pushes southward through the state. Expect
somewhat higher pops for Friday through Sunday with drying from
the north on Monday.
VFR conditions expected to continue and afternoon cu
field in 5-6 kft range. Kept SCT coverage as tomorrow has better
chance for BKN. Big question is what winds will do near KATL...best
thoughts on initial NE then swing NW by 18z with weak mixing then
back on east side for overnight. Could very well have VRB this
afternoon though at least magnitudes should stay under 7kts. Still
low end chance of isolated shower/storm by afternoon into early
evening but too low to include mention in TAF.
//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Low on wind direction.
High on all else.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens 91 68 89 68 / 20 20 30 20
Atlanta 90 70 89 70 / 20 20 30 20
Blairsville 85 63 84 64 / 30 30 40 30
Cartersville 91 66 90 67 / 20 10 30 20
Columbus 93 69 92 70 / 20 10 30 20
Gainesville 88 68 87 69 / 30 20 30 30
Macon 93 68 91 68 / 20 20 30 20
Rome 91 65 91 67 / 20 10 30 20
Peachtree City 92 66 90 66 / 20 20 30 20
Vidalia 92 70 91 71 / 20 20 30 20