Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 221134
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
634 AM EST Thu Feb 22 2018



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 345 AM EST Thu Feb 22 2018/

SHORT TERM /Today through Friday/...

Not much change in this mornings forecast from yesterdays. The
surface Bermuda like ridge has weakened a bit over the past 24 hours
but it is still behaving more like a wedge of high pressure keeping
GA in moist southeasterly flow. This ridge is expected to continue
to weaken through the short term as the main frontal boundary over
the MS river valley pushes slowly east over the next few days. The
southerly flow will help keep temps well above seasonal norms with
highs expected in the 70s and 80s across the area. Unlike yesterday
we do not have any precipitation over the area right now but with
continued upsloping flow we could still see an isolated showers or
two pop up across N GA this afternoon. Instabilities also increase a
bit between 18z and 00z so would not be surprised to see a a few
lightning strikes across N GA as well. Still no severe storms
expected.

The main cold front currently over the MS and OH river valleys is
not expected to make much progress east through the short term. The
surface to upper level ridge centered just of the Carolina coast
will block the front from pushing east to fast. The models are
showing the main axis of deeper moisture moving right up to the
TN/AL/GA border today and stalling as it bumps into the ridge. This
moisture axis appears to never move into NW GA through the short
term but that will change into the weekend.

01

LONG TERM /Friday Night through Wednesday/...

Medium-range models starting to come together concerning this
weekend`s system with the ECMWF/Canadian models now much closer to
the quicker timing and strength of the GFS. But the GFS has trended
a bit farther north with the short wave and associated surface low.
Cold front should be on the doorstep by 12Z Sunday, moving across
north Georgia through the day. Models show the front becoming fairly
diffuse and slowing somewhere across central Georgia Sunday night,
slipping into south Georgia Monday.

Enough instability shown for the weekend system to keep the mention
of isolated to scattered thunder in the forecast, especially late
Saturday through the day Sunday. Still some uncertainty concerning
the strength of the dynamics/low-level forcing with this system so
chances for any isolated strong or severe thunderstorms remains a bit
uncertain as well, however enough potential exists that we will need
to keep a keen eye on the trends over the next few model runs.

Upper flow flattens through the first half of next week with some
moderation in the persistent, near-record, warmth we have seen for
the past week or so. Another somewhat vigorous system is indicated
toward the end of the extended forecast period as the upper flow re-
amplifies.

20

CLIMATE...

Records for 02-22

               Max Temperature         Min Temperature
  Station      High        Low         High        Low
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      78 1922     38 1978     56 2016     11 1963
                            1963
   KATL      74 2003     34 1939     61 1897      8 1963
                1949
                1917
   KCSG      80 1917     43 1963     64 1962     15 1963
   KMCN      83 1962     40 1939     61 1980     17 1963

Records for 02-23

               Max Temperature         Min Temperature
  Station      High        Low         High        Low
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      79 2012     34 1989     57 1922     18 1939
                1980
   KATL      79 1980     32 1901     62 1909     19 1939
   KCSG      83 1996     37 1989     67 1962     18 1963
   KMCN      81 1980     37 1901     66 1909     22 1963
                1909

Records for 02-24

               Max Temperature         Min Temperature
  Station      High        Low         High        Low
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      81 1930     37 1947     58 1944     19 1989
                                                    1967
                                                    1947
   KATL      77 1982     35 1907     64 1890     17 1989
                                                    1947
   KCSG      81 1930     38 1901     61 1979     21 1989
   KMCN      79 1985     36 1901     62 1961     18 1901
                1930

Records for 02-25

               Max Temperature         Min Temperature
  Station      High        Low         High        Low
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      80 1930     34 1974     59 1992      8 1967
                            1967
   KATL      78 1996     26 1894     62 1890      9 1967
   KCSG      82 1930     36 1967     65 2001     17 1967
   KMCN      82 1930     35 1914     62 1918     14 1967


01

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z Update...
The MVFR/IFR ceilings have not made it into the ATL area this
morning. With sunrise rapidly approaching not to confident it
will happen. Could still see some MVFR ceilings but they will be
brief if at all. No precip expected today with southerly flow
continuing today. Winds will start out of the SE then turn to the
SW this afternoon and back to the SE this evening/tonight. Wind
speeds expected to be 10kt or less through the period.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Confidence Medium to high on ceilings
Confidence High on all other elements.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          78  59  78  59 /   5   5  10  20
Atlanta         79  61  78  60 /   0   5  10  10
Blairsville     74  57  73  56 /  20  20  10  20
Cartersville    80  61  79  59 /   5   5  10  20
Columbus        82  61  81  61 /   0   0  10   5
Gainesville     76  58  75  59 /   5   5  10  20
Macon           81  59  81  60 /   0   0   5  10
Rome            80  61  80  59 /  20   5  10  20
Peachtree City  81  59  79  58 /   0   0  10  10
Vidalia         82  62  81  62 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...01



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