Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 221140
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
640 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE HAS MADE ITS WAY INTO THE STATE AND IS
EXPECTED TO STICK AROUND UNTIL THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM SWEEPS IT
OUT. -RAIN AND DRIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH LOW CLOUDS
AND EAST WINDS.  BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL GA
TODAY AS RAIN BAN HAS SET UP SW TO NE ACROSS SOUTHERN GA. POPS ARE
SOMEWHAT LOW TODAY AS FIRST WAVE OF GULF MOISTURE EXITS...BUT
DEEPENING WAVE OVER THE PLAINS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE WEDGE IS EXPECTED TOP
BEGIN TO ERODE TODAY AS WARM FRONT OVER SOUTH GA MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHWARD. HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 50S BUT SOME
AREA IN OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA WILL TEMPS RISE TO
NEAR 60 AS THE WEDGE WEAKENS.  GUIDANCE IS STILL KEEPING SBCAPE
VALUES PRETTY MUCH 0...WITH MUCAPE VALUES INCREASING ACROSS CENTRAL
GEORGIA TONIGHT INTO THE 200 TO 300 J/KG RANGE. THIS INSTABILITY
PUSHES INTO THE THE ATL AREA TUESDAY. HAVE DECIDED TO CONTINUE WITH
THE MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
A DEVELOPING FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO THE MS
RIVER VALLEY AND INTO GA TUESDAY NIGHT. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
CATEGORICAL POPS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.

01

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

CLOSED LOW EMBEDDED IN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS STILL IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT SURFACE FRONT SHOULD BE IN THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF
THE STATE AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY AND EXITING THE FORECAST AREA BY 00Z
THURSDAY. A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
STILL ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. QPF AMOUNTS
MAY APPROACH THE 2 TO 3 INCHES MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL ZONES. NO
HYDRO ISSUES ANTICIPATED YET BUT WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH. SOME
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE STILL LOOKS ON TRACK TO CAUSE A MIX OF RAIN
AND LIGHT SNOW FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY STILL LOOK DRY. GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO HAVE
DIFFERENCES IN EVOLUTION OF NEXT SYSTEM. ECMWF WANTS TO BRING A
STRONG SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEYS DURING THE WEEKEND
WHILE THE GFS IS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AND ALSO A BIT FASTER. WITH
THE UNCERTAINTY INVOLVED...HAVE CONTINUED CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

41

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
WEDGE IS STILL FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE STATE WITH LOW CLOUDS
EAST WINDS AND LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE EVERYWHERE. AT IFR TO LIFR
CEILINGS THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD AS THE WEDGE IS HEAR TO STAY
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF THE EAST
WITH SPEEDS IN THE 6-12KT RANGE. VSBYS MAINLY IFR RIGHT NOW BUT
THEY SHOULD GET INTO THE MVFR RANGE LATER THIS MORNING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM TO HIGH.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          48  43  47  45 /  50  60 100 100
ATLANTA         51  45  51  50 /  30  50 100 100
BLAIRSVILLE     49  42  47  44 /  40  50 100 100
CARTERSVILLE    52  45  49  49 /  30  40 100 100
COLUMBUS        56  52  64  60 /  30  50 100 100
GAINESVILLE     48  42  45  45 /  40  60 100 100
MACON           53  49  62  60 /  50  50 100 100
ROME            53  46  53  51 /  20  40 100 100
PEACHTREE CITY  52  46  55  53 /  30  50 100 100
VIDALIA         55  52  70  63 /  70  50 100 100

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...01



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